The bookmakers do the ratings and there opening prices should be the most accurate market to a the runners chances. If you just adjust the prices % to under 100% and bet the overlays then you have the answer.

So why bother with ratings? The bookies such as IAS keep those horses well under the odds that they know are likely to win. They employ people to rate and ensure the most accurate prices are put up.

Pretty hard to argue with that Logic.
Just another reason why you can't win at Punting.

But thats only about WIN ONLY Betting.
With the Exotics , there are discrepancies and are exploited by Professional Punters.

Couple that with market movements and getting the best price....and you have a recipe for gold

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In view of these profound and probably deeply felt statements I suppose I have to pack up and slink away, and give back all the profits I received over many years doing my own rating.

I don't know the OP but I'm surprised by CP endorsing his comment.

Each to his/her own I always maintained, not so these days when PC thinking encroaches punting even.

But C'est la vie!

Or perhaps get in touch with IAS with your resume in hand.
Steady income with no risk and you be doing what you love , and getting paid for it.

I can tell you first hand that bookmakers at Randwick in the bar areas punch in IAS rated prices! This is what is put up for each race on their boards. The % obviously is set in the bookies favour however this is what they use.

Have I got a good case here???

Fail to see how it relates to doing one's own rating?

Why bother doing ratings when all ratings are identical?

Why bother doing ratings when all ratings have the same horses in the same rated order?

Why bother doing ratings when all ratings that give dollar odds price assessments have the same horses in the same rated order with the same dollar odds price assessments?

Need I say more?

Spot on Neil. I believe that overall bookies and punters get the prices right for a race (it has been shown that horses win in proportion to their starting price). It is pointless following the same selections as everyone else, and most rating methods end up with very similar odds as has been pointed out here.

But remember too, a horse's rating price is just a measure of its chance of winning a race. A top rated horse with a rating of $3 say, in a market framed to 100% (in practice this most likely would be put up by the bookies as $2.50) indicates the horse has a 1 in 3 (33%) chance of winning, however, there is a 2 in 3 (67%) chance of the winner coming from one of the other horses.

The real skill in punting is to find the winner from the other 67% that most other punters overlook and where TAB overlays appear.

I think using ratings in conjunction with extensive punting knowledge is a powerful combination.

Entwine these tools with patience and you're on a winner.

I use ratings which I have followed over many years now and know at which tracks they do particularly well and which tracks they do not.

I focus on horses that have performed at the distance, in the conditions and work from there.

An example at Eagle Farm on Saturday was Willy Jimmy and St Germaine. By my ratings they had virtually identical top ratings at the distance, yet Willy Jimmy opened at $6 and St Germaine $3.50. The market corrected a little before start time, however a nice collect was made.

It's not an exact science, however any hardened punter knows that this game is almost never predictable in the short-term, that's why we love it!!

For finding value, I recommend 'betting like a christian'... forgive your horses misgivings for one run, look for unlucky last start runs and don't expect horses to be robots. Some are warhorses, with the class to win when they are unfit, however the vast majority peak once during a prep, then need a few more runs to recover and peak again. Some only peak the once in a prep. EASY. Ha ha

I don't agree that all ratings are the same, however you can bet that if the majority of ratings services all have a certain horse top rated, there will generally be no value in backing them.

If nothing else marksto2 you've created some healthy heated debate, so well done.

Final thought: Bookies are people, they also make mistakes.

The Schmile