I fail to see why a jockey of Payne's ability did not take Northerly to the lead and set his own pace.In a field of 6 and giving away so much weight,the only possible way he could have lost was the way he did,chasing a lightweight frontrunner who made him carry his weight.I note with interest that Mick Price worked this out,why couldn't Fred and Paddy?I also note that Paddy said he was slipping in the slippery ground,and doubted that he could win at the 700 metre mark,so why didn't he make a forward move earlier?I realise that Northerly is not a noted frontrunner,but surely in a field of 6 with 60kgs,wouldn't it have been a smarter move to lead,and make the lightweights try to run him down?I doubt that any of them would have,including the winner,who basically has to lead to win,as shown in his past performances.Maybe Fred and Paddy got to carried away with all the accolades in the press,and thought they only had to go around to win,no matter where he was ridden!I just hope it has brought both of them back to earth.Northerly is a champion,and will no doubt win a lot more races,but he'll also lose more than he should if ridden like that again.I would like to see Greg Childs,Corey Brown or Chri Munce on his back!

working on times northerly had the worst time performance last start leading into this race.
he gave mr. trickster 8 lengths on times.
i didnt tip him. i didnt back him and i think his run was very good.

i would say he could have used a harder run in the st george but running in small fields doesnt often smarten them up enough particularly as his weight was high and he was giving a fair bit away.
as i said i think it was a good run.

Courtesy The West Australian website:

Champion galloper Northerly, a shock loser on Saturday, cannot be faulted and connections are confident he will bounce back to win next Monday's $1.25 million Australian Cup at Flemington.

The gelding was among several fancies who failed to handle slippery conditions at Saturday's Caulfield meeting when he ran second with 60kg in the Victoria Gold Cup.

"It was also a case of him again being vulnerable in handicaps," trainer Fred Kersley said.

Northerly, a winner 11 times in 15 weight-for-age races, has been beaten at five of his past seven starts under handicap conditions.

Kersley indicated yesterday his confidence in the $8 million stake-earner had not been dented. The trainer inspected stables in Sydney and confirmed Northerly's NSW autumn carnival program.

"I've looked at Rosehill, Warwick Farm and Canterbury facilities, searching for the best place to stable Northerly when he comes here," Kersley said. "He will be based at Rosehill, the venue for his first two Sydney races."

Northerly is scheduled to run in the $400,000 Ranvet Stakes (2000m) on March 29 and the $2 million BMW (2400m) a fortnight later.

__________________
Ta me go maith

I'm now awaiting the"post mortum"(spelling),on the race,would of had to be a watch only with the price $1.20 a win,small field,& not one mention of the winner in the prepost washup from you lot,great horse but jeeze all the hype!!,to tell the truth I got more enjoyment(& money$2.20)from a 9 length winner at Toowoomba on Sat than the "big" race.But what would I know only being a mug.Better punting to you all.Touchy,><>.

Angel,

You do't think that to Fred this was only a glorified track gallop with no real concern whether Northerly won or not? I suspect he only wanted to give him a hit-out.
Agreed, he had to go back in distance from his previous run but "champions" can do this. Kingston Town was able to mix distances against top quality opposition and still win.
It is open to conjecture whether Northerly is in "the King's" class.
I was wary of this race as I thought it may turn out as it did. As we say in punting circles, it was a potential "wealth hazard" although, at $1.10 place tote, it was better than you can get at any bank(btbi.....better than bank interest).

heers.

Xanadu,I'm not suggesting that Northerly wasn't trying,I would just have liked to have seen him ridden a bit more aggressively.Because of the fact that Paddy Payne sat and sat,even though he later admitted Northerly wasn't comfortable on the slippery surface,did they think that it was a lay down misere,no matter how the race was run?He had a soft win the start before,so I don't think he is anywhwere near fit,and the Australian Cup,plus WFA races in Sydney are obviously the races he has been set for.I don't think that Greg Childs would have sat there like that on Sunline!I know that comparisons are odious,but Northerly would have to show me a lot more before I would put him in Kingston Town or Sunline's class!He does mix his distances,but not with the same degree of success as the other two.Maybe he is strictly WFA performer?As a previous poster pointed out,he has been beaten in 5 out of his last 7 handicap events.As for you being a mug Touchy,I don't think so!Much smarter to do what you did than follow the hype and take the skinny odds.I know I didn't,and never will.Follow the old late and great Ken Howard adage,"never bet odds on,never run up steps!".Words of wisdom if ever I've heard any.Cheers

Angel,

Firstly, if Northerly wasn't fit don't you think the stewards are culpable for letting the trainer present a horse for racing when he is not at his best?
Secondly, some punters steer away from odds-on betting and this is good for me as on some occasions I may have assessed a runner as a 1/10 prospect and have been able to secure 4/5 or evens thereby achieving a favourable percentage advantage(arbitrage transaction). More precisely, if I can get a significant percentage overlay regularly then this increases the prospects of maintaining a long-term winning strategy. I stress here that I certainly do not bet exclusively on short-priced runners as I usually seek out any value on offer. However, when the opportunity presents itself I will invest heavily on the short priced runner offering a significant percentage overlay.

See ya buddy.

Xanadu,thanks for the reply old mate,always good to hear from you.As for stewards being "culpable"as you so succintly put it,well that's another topic of discussion.I don't really want to open a can of worms here,but how many times can you look at a race and eliminate certain runners from contention because it is only going around to get race fitness?Prime example:Bart Cummings has stated how many miles he has to get into a stayers legs in preparation for a Melbourne Cup.So for instance,if Rogan Josh began it's preparation for a Cup stint in a 1000metre sprint,what chance would give it of winning?None.But do the stewards tell Bart it can't go around because it is not fit?No.I gues it's just part of the racing game,and being able to assess the ones that can't win that enables us to keep our nose in front.I'm not saying that Northerly wasn't fit,what I am saying is that I don't think he was 100% fit,as he is being aimed at far richer plums than the race he contested on Saturday.I'm also sure that wilet mentor would have told Paddy Payne not to knock him about too much if he didn't think he could win at the 500 metre mark.As for taking shorts,I see your point in the way you approach it with your own assessments,but I myself will NEVER bet odds on.My own cutoff point is 6/4.
Cheers mate,talk to ya soon
P.S.
Have you been "dutching" the leading stables runners as I suggested?I got Laguna Lake atgood odds,did you have anything on it?

No, unfortunately I didn't but I can recommend our fellow forum subscribers that they monitor this angle.

Another method which estimates whether a horse is fit or unfit to race is the bloodcount on the morning of the race, or more practical, the day before, and duly reported in the press. So what...., it may cost more to do so , which will inevitably be passed on to we the punters, but it may also prevent us backing losers on which we placed speculative bets , believing they were fit for racing.
I am very adamant about this subject as I believe that it tells you whether class horses coming back early in their preparation are fit and ready to contest the race in question.