I would say the answer is "Depends"

A horse running poorly dropping in class will more then likely still run poorer then a horse rising in class that is fit and running well.

A horse running well that is in the top few weights is more likely to beat a horse running poorly that is carrying a lesser weight.

But also a horse running well that is in the top few weights is more likely to beat a horse running well that is carrying a lesser weight.

Making generalised statements to test is usually not where you will fin the edge. What must be done is understanding what other punters think then finding the anomolies within the broad statement.

An example to follow my last post.


Last start winners win a larger share of races then they should by random chance.

This is true but last start winners running at a country track which then come to town to race on a metro track lose a very large pencentage of races. So much higher then last start winners overall that they are actually a very good angle to analyse for laying because so many people like to bet on hroses with 1 in their form line at the last start.