Here,s a angle I seen a few days ago whilst perusing inracings free daily meeting.
A horse rated at 4/7 opening up at $41 (the TC rated for were ok on the day)
It lost but in my opinion was worthy of a bet.

i.e Rated by your fav rater at odds on but opening at a very good price.

Perhaps keeping a eye on these type of bets might produce a yearly profit.


Cheers
darky

Inracing has 1 tomorrow Echuca R 5 H 2 rated at 4/7.
What it will open up at is anybodys guess.

Remiss of me not to mention this.

The "IN WET" ratings that appear on the victorian website,
With the other panels have absolutely nothing to do with the,
Everyrace .com selections or the wizard ratings as they are known as.

These "IN WET" ratings are sourced from "skychannel"

http://www.skychannel.com.au/racing/index.php

It is confusing as they call there ratings skyform as well,
So you have two sets of ratings with the same name.

The order with the in-wet is often different to the ones,
That are on the above link.

Like the best overall column for some reason when there are scratchings,
Their computer does make errors in the adjustments.

All the other columns are adjusted correctly.(bar the best-overall)

The everyrace.com
or wizard ratings do not produce a set of ratings for wet tracks.

The best columns for strike rate overall is the skyform ratings 1-2.

The next best are the top 1-2 in the best overall column

The Best Form column has the highest average dividend of all,
But also one of the lowest strike rates in their top 1-2.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Thanks Garyf.
Much appreciated.
Cheers
darky

Many thanks to Vortech and Try Try Again for their answers regarding where ratings come from in the Herald Sun.

Handicapping, stable money, developing your own stable of horses to follow, ratings, a set of filters, following the money in the ring ..... are the main methods punters use to select a winner. Within each of these categories there is a plethora of further information a punter could use to make their selection.

Punters using ONLY the most popular filters simply cannot win because most systems followers will have quite a few of these filters in their system so that leads to most system money being on a select few horses. And it's my belief that punters using other methods set out above will also use one or two of the most popular filters to further refine their selection method.

Some of the most popular filters will be included in a high % of pure Systems selection method, and to a lesser extent, but significantly so when we're looking at the impact of overbet / over use of popular filters, in other selection methods.

So true you are Barny,


Hence why more value can often be found where the pool size is not so large in the country mid-week races.

I agree with darkydog. Punters using popular filters are losing but they probably have a reasonable strike rate and that keeps them going - a lingering death of the punting bank by a thousand cuts!

I have been playing with UB's site and have found that I can get reasonable POTs by using uncommon filters but the payoff is low strikes rates of about 10% or less. This sr expects runs of outs of about 30 to 50 for confidence levels of 95% to 99%.

I recently posted a system that has produced a profit for the last three years but I have only kept accurate records since Jan this year and the profit has been very encouraging if it holds up. It only received one comment which just suggests to me that most punters are only comfortable with the popular filters even if they lose using them.

I cannot find a group of filters that shows a POT on country races, not even close !!!!!

Your ratings may be the go there then !!!!

One of my best country systems uses the top 4 ratings

apply the following filters

a. Days last start 1-5
b. Last start finish 4 - 24
c. Won at the course
d. Last start margin 4.0 lengths or less.