Hi Barny,

I've got out the old Sportsman's and Herald Sun formguides and I'm investigating your concept.

I have a few questions if that's okay.

1. When you consider the "qualifying" race are these always Saturday meetings or could they be Public Holiday, midweek or night meetings as well?

2. If you only look at horse's that have had say 5-20 starts, what do you do if the qualifying run is their 18th start and as you are going to follow then for their next 5 starts, this will take them passed their 20th run. What do you do?

3. If the horse wins at say its 2nd start after the qualifying run do you continue to follow it for the next 3 runs (total of 5) or is it eliminated unless this winning run is also a qualifying run?

Thanks for your very interesting thread.

Metro is one of the rules Try Try Again, and is one the the six rules that follows the horse all the way through it's next five runs. I look at horses with a much narrower range than you've said, and they start lower than 5.

We have Qualifying set of filters that stay with us all through the five starts.

Start 1 - We back it

Start 2 - To back it we're looking for a poor run in it's previous start. There's really only one additional filter added here to the Q filters.

Start 3 - To back it we're looking for good form at it's previous 2 starts. There's two additional filters added here to the Q filters (Note; the additional filter added to Start 2 is removed)

Start 4 and 5 - We use only the original set of filters and it doesn't matter what the horse did in starts 2 & 3. The only changes to the Q filters are obviously the number of runs ('coz they've had a couple more since the Q run), and the number of runs from a spell for the same reason. Logic here is that the trainer still has the horse in work and must see something. Interesting to note that there's only a 20% drop in the number of selections from the Q run to the 5th run, it's a stat that surprised me and trust me I've checked and double checked this stat. Start 5 shows the best POT, and that too surprised me, and I've checked and double checked this too.

I've actually given you the lot here, don't bother asking about Start 2 & 3 contradicting each other, think about when and why we're having a bet.

I reckon there would be quite a few different scenarios that you could apply to get a very good set of Q filters that can be used to "follow" a horse for it's next few runs, with only a logical tweak here and there required.

Don Scott likes lightly raced horses because of their potential and says to bet heavily on them (circumstances being right of course). Don Scott also say that winners keep winning.

Hi Barny,

Thanks for the information!

What do you consider a poor run?

Is it running out of a place or beaten more than a certain margin say 3 lengths?

Do you find some States perform better than others or is pretty consistent? I ask this because I generally only bet on Melbourne races.

I've posted the concept and then some, that'll do. If you've got a database then you'll be able to have a bit of fun entering in all types of scenarios. It's not that I'm interested in keeping "all the rules to myself", it's just that I know this forum and I would be really p1ssed off getting bagged for what I consider is a different method and a good and helpful post.

cheers, Barny

One thing I will mention, and it'll give you a clue .....I've mentioned before about the large discrepancies between NSW and Vic results and on every occasion my filters have included Race Prizemoney and Weight Variances, so I've assumed these two filters are out of sync between NSW and Vic. I've asked about this but sadly no-one has been able to, or wanted to give an answer.

No worries Barny,

Thanks again for a very interesting concept, it certainly has got my thoughts racing.

Unfortunately, I don't have a data base and have to go through things the old fashion way with, as I said previously, old Sportsman's and Herald Sun's (except for having Excel!). It does take longer but I get the thrill out of the chase!

I enjoy working out systems with >50% POT and a few bets per Saturday. It doesn't suit me to have thousands of bets so I can get 5-10% POT.

Good luck with your "Horses to Follow"!

There are 50% POT systems, which have logic attached to them. I also agree on keeping your powder dry and waiting for a decent bet. Of all the books I've read on punting, the biographies of famous bookies, stories about the turf, one thing that's common to a lot of these stories is that ONE BIG win. Contrary to popular opinion on here, I believe that if you have a system that selects a really good lightly raced horse you're in with a good chance. ALL of my good systems are centred around lightly raced horses. One of them has only a few bets each month in Vic, but when your filters include a decent S/R, Metro, lightly raced and up in class, then you're not going to have many selections are you? Think Sincero ..... there's many others like that and at good odds too. But you have to be patient and wait. I'd rather have one decent bet each week and follow a logical system than backing neddies here there and everywhere. Also a longshot system, which there are many marketed, is absolutely fraught with danger ..... miss a winner and it's goodnight for a year or so.

If you want to put up some of the filters you're playing around with, don't be specific, and I'll give you a heads up if I can. Sort of like the Weights and Prizemoney and the variances between NSW and Vic. I've always liked a horse with a really good Win S/R, plenty of good winners, but plenty of losers too until I looked at interstate, NZ, and even o'seas horses, and also horse going up in class. There's more than one way to skin a cat. Few bets with a systems that picks out a lightly raced, good horse, going up in class will do me.

I have only just read this thread and am glad you have found some good info in what i have posted in the past.

A question was posted in staking if you use a martingale betting approach?

If it was me i would not, i would just use the natural progression of longer prices for losers to bring in the profit and if the price is lower on a winner than needed i would accept this and rejoice in the big overs on other runners.

Limiting the amount of races you follow a horse for will increase the profit i think the sweet spot is 5-6

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