Shoto,

I only ment it in the sense that: "does it mean that the way to go in punting, is to seek out short priced favotites?" or "to throw my lot in with that sort of punting?" Tongue in cheek way of asking.

Sorry to confuse.

Cheers.

Hi Crash,

You don't have to pay anyone for the selections, simply note down any metro race that has less than 8 runners and back the horse which is odds on.

I'm not saying that this will hold up forever, but it's certainly worth monitoring for the next few months.

Many aviod favourites like the plague, as they think there's no value there. There is, if you're selective.

partypooper,

sorry missed your earlier posting re prepost.

I don't have any way of assessing the prepost price performance, but I'd imagine you'd do ok backing 1/1 or less, especially in small fields, as they would almost certainly start odds on in a small field.

Certainly if you looked at the next price in the prepost market and it was say 5/1, you'd be pretty confident that the favourite would start odds on.

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I'm with ya. Interesting though, some of those figures scratching out a profit on only the odds on.

Thanks all,

Are those Trees I can see amongst the wood?

Cheers.

Chrome! thanks for that. Yes have been very pleased with my results recently. What I'm doing is using several different methods of selection independently to arrive at a set of selections, but then only betting when all methods point to the same horse. The selection methods are basically ratings based, combined with other known advantages, so I'm quietly confident. I have been backing for the place so far but the selections are actually showing a better POT for the win, so may change that soon, just want a longer "look' first.

Well I tried a little experiment today.

Had three small bets today, just on the shortest Tote price where nothing ealse was close to it ... without even knowing anything about the horse!... a system I am not about to launch into full time, just had some fun.

First bet of $50W won, 2nd bet of $50 just lost but the winner did shorten from about $8 to $4.50 in final minutes. Third bet of $100 won. Just over 150% collect on outlay.

Now surely that points to somthing interesting going on [other than my recklessness]?

Cheers.

crash,

doing that on any old races might not and probably won't work.

I have only assessed this on Metro class races with 7 runners or less and fairly limited data, so please be careful.

Be careful[?] Ha Ha

Well it was just a tryout. Now I'll throw in some study to include field size, race class, And look at the horses form etc.

That experiment though, is a pointer.

Cheers.

Crash,
just having a quick flick around with this I dont think its the size of the field that really matters - it might be more the amount by which a horse is favourite by.

try the following...
thoroughbreds - select the favourite for a place if the win price is $3 or more greater than the next runner at the start. my gut feeling is that you might be best to exclude metro races from this (weekday and weekend) because they do some funny things to favourites and you would obviously need to keep an eye out for special weather or event conditions that might make it advisable to back off - and in this case because you are going for the place I would not take ntd races.

standardbreds - the words trots and favourites always suggest profit, but if you also took your idea into this area then I would try the same $3 better than the others method, leave out ntd's and any horse with no previous form.

my quick research suggests both would give you a POT rather than a LOT but Im sure one of the database gurus will prove me wrong and tell us these methods would give you a long term loss.

but I like the look of them just the same
:smile:

see ya
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