what percentage of win pool are you then limiting your loss chasing ?

I know that there is a lot to suggest that backing true favourites is a good approach and I do concur with that, if only I could decide on what really makes a true favourite? Over the years I have seen favourites with all the right or wrong credentials repeatedly go down or win and that is why the few bookies left survive. Things often just go wrong in a race and the low returns on favourites do not allow for this. Remember bookies have the same if not more information than most punters. Also, the dreaded long run of outs still occurs in my experience, and it takes a lot of ~$2.50 wins to cover just a few losses, which just feeds the 'human factor'. Bookies love laying short priced favourites - I wonder why!

With my selection method I get a range of prices and over the years I have found the relative strike rate for favourites to be similar to that of longer priced selections. This just confirms what Don Scott and others have found - horses in the main win in proportion to their starting price (less the take) so there is no point just sticking to favourites with good credentials.

It does take nerves of steel to follow a system that selects longer priced horses and that is why I advocate level staking and waiting for a suitable price. This way I tend to keep my cool and beat the 'human factor' (well mostly) and generally keep in front.

John