Crash, these days I'm always trying NOT to impose hard and fast mechanical rules.But obviously i'm getting something nearly right but not quite.On the question of race classes and types, I think this could be the problem as I do get confused with the comparison here., not in the general sense, I mean I know the difference between Octagonal and Thunderhawk, it's when the difference gets closer that I fall down I think (in Australia that is, in England things seemed to be much more clealy defined, although that might have just been familiarity on my part)

But for the excercise I will do a study and see if I can see a pattern.
I did notice my selections in races 1&2 showed a loss, whereas my selections race 3-8 showed a profit which was enhanced of course when 1&2 were left alone. But I felt that this was getting close to retro fitting again, what do you think? (any comments welcome)

Partypooper,

Prize money of races contested/won can be relied on as a good class indicater.

The first half of most cards [ usualy ] contain the poorest races. I don't often start betting until the 5th. race. Not always but races 1 and 2 are often maidens etc. and 3 and 4 probably have a fillies and mares or 1000m. race or class 1/2 which long term can all be a waste of time [ for me anyway ].

You will find some things or even/especialy habits that deserve attention. I used to 'like ' certain horses and that would influence my value judgement of it as a betting proposition or worse it 'owed' me money !! I don't do those things anymore thank God.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-11 00:13 ]

Thanks Crash, I find your comments very interesting & down to earth.

Now, Head on the block time again, an unusual 5 investments tomorrow so here goes!

PR1-2 Educated Money (no pun intended)
PR4-1 Covertly
PR5-2 Bonnie Brae
PR7-6 Hardrada
PR9-2 Regal Raider

All comments invited before and/or after the races.

You may have identified the problem area by your selections: Why the two 1000m races [1 and 4 ]?
Trouble with these races is that you can often loose your money at the barrier and R4 is full of runners with no form at all. I would be dropping these two races and spreading my money on the other three selections. Regardless what happens today that stratergy [dropping 1000m races] will improve your return.

If you check your records you will find a loss on 1000m races overall and a definate loss on races containing runners with no form whatsoever [I will pass by a race with even 1 runner with no form] as you just can't figure what surprises may be lurking in them. Why bother ?

Cheers and may the form be with you.

Point taken there Crash, is that your observaton on specifically 1000 metre races, rather than say 1000-1200m? And I agree entirely (normally) about races with first starters but I just considered this particular one a good one ( could easily be wrong) In other words I prefer to keep the "rules" flexible, but again I will do the excercise and see if that pattern emerges, cheers!

Distances less than 1100m are among the no-no races like maidens and jumps etc. due to too much importance related to the start. In a 1200m [or even 1150m] a horse slowly away still has some chance but rarely in a 1000m or heaven forbid 900m race. Other races I would put in the above catagory would be Cups and a lot of the big Stakes races [too many chances], fillies and mares [hormones can have odd affects here but mares alone are ok] transitional [city horses going down meet county cousins going up etc.] and classes 1/2 are dodgy quality also. Punters may dispute some of these choices but for my records they are a dead loss regardless of the odd winner [such as Educated Money ...well done].

We have so many races going on why settle for rubbish races ? I think the goals should be long term profit not short term glory.

Cheers.

Cheers.

Crash, I'm following your comments with intense interest, and no I have not got a smirk on my face as the only 2 you knocked won, my thinking is much longer term than that. But in a way typifies my dilema, if I introduce a mechanical rule I seem to cut out the very thing that I can claim to fame i.e. Covertly,as I said I had him down as a real "Good un" and so went against the golden rule of not backing when there is 1st starters in the race.

But to lay things on the line a mixed day today, Educated Money, and Covertly went exactly to plan and reasonably pleased with the Top Fluc. Hardrada had some excuses, but the other two were beyond belief!!! anyway still a profit on the day and overall (so far)
2 weeks investments as follows:
8 bets
3 wins
outlay 8 units
return 9.4 units
POT 17.5%

Partypooper,

Thanks for your results [saved me checking].
You had Murphy's law on your side from the moment I opened my big mouth !! However, I stand by what I have said obviously and your records probably do too as I would be amazed if they didn't. Where you go from there is really your call. Betting on those races though does identify a long term problem and that is a crux area for many punters. If they have a problem, they are looking for a solution to add to what they already do, but never for a solution that takes anything away from [betting habits] what they do. It's a hard one.

My return for the same period is 95.8% POT [not smirking either] from straight out handicapping and one little system I made up that is going guns and roses [saved my bacon yesterday]. What a shocker for hadicapers here in the east and good tracks too!!

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-14 07:03 ]

regal raider went up too much in the weights for mine pp. Went up 5kg to 54 and met le tru noir 2 kg's worse off on a nose win. Not surprising for mine. Bonnie Brae was dissapointing I backed beyond dispute in the race who will win again soon I think although had every chance on the weekend.
If it was 1800m(fruit and veg) I'm positive hadrada would have won. I still cant get over the fact that True STeel won. I've backed it 3 times this prep for 3 placings in weakish company and it comes out and wins a G1. Last year Blevvo did the same thing except he had winning form. It's outrageous.
Mercerdario was the best run of the day for mine(outside of the winners).

cheers
umrum

Umrum, thanks for the feedback, yes I broke my own golden rule backing Regal Raider, i.e. the majority of winners carry within 3.5kg's of their set weight last run. Guess I thought it could do it, and was proven very wrong. What can one say about True Steel except mmmmmmmm!