Hate to be party pooper stebbo BUT.... anyone who seriously thinks they can win in the long run betting on dogs WITHOUT doing hours of videos and form study is kidding themselves. Maybe you would have avoided backing the dog that got into trouble if you knew what its racing style was.
Seriously, forget about "systems", put in the hard yards and long hours and you might be surprised how many value winners you back.

Lenny,
I think what you are saying is that if a race were repeated (rather than rerun) with all the same options taken, the same abilities on the line and the same tactics employed...the same winner would eventuate.
Unfortunatley this is not the case. The reason lies within the horse itself. A horse can build to a peak performance. Most will then fall off this peak at the next run, even in identical circumstances. If however the horse can hold it's peak. It thereby provides a platform to kick from at it's next preperation. Few horse hold more than two peaks in succession. If they do, they will probably find a lot higher peak later in their career.
Maybe if you reran the race in identical circumsatnces with all runners at the same point in their preperations it would be a similar result but this senario can never happen. The runners will be older and a million other variables that can never be recreated will stuff things up.

Hi Stebbo,
The database is private, an not open for subscription ( i need an edge).
A one turn track is basically a horse shoe layout of the race distance. ie they start in the back straight an finish in the front straight, most one turn tracks have a 60 - 65 metre radius turn whereas two turn tracks are around the 50 metre radius

I think the first goal if your producing an Odds Line is to develop an Oddsline that is within a % point or two of the General Publics Odds Line.an is smooth in its transition thru the rankings, when tested

Then you produce a performance envelope for each runner, that is, what is it's Mean and its Standard Deviation, the STD is maybe one of the most important formulas in racing.This then allows you to produce an OddsLine.
Then you would be able to compare, both your Public Generated Line an your own to at least give you an idea, as too what sort of investmnent you may make on this race.

I personally use Monte carlo simulations, using a variable that will outperform the General Publics Line's best variable for that particular race.

Hi Crash,
/
I think what you are discovering [ 're-inventing' as you put it ] and trying to come to terms with above is basically, 'handicapping ' in general. If not, it sounds very much like it [?].
/

Perhaps - systems are my thing (in regard to punting) and I've always tried to avoid actually looking at the form if possible (click and win is my ultimate goal). In this thread, I am just trying to quantify the variation that exists outside of h'capping's standard parameters, such as BP, fitness, etc. That way I can know that if my software throws up a rating of "40", it may actually mean "36-44", or whatever. In short, I am trying to quatify a horses rating variation, but further, I'm trying to quatify what degree of variation is due to understood variables, and what degree of variation is in the "lap of the gods".

It is interesting Woof mentions standard deviation in his ratings for the dogs. This is exactly my thinking for my ratings of the ponies.

Hi Pickle,

Thanks for your reply. I appreciate the insight.

~Lenny



[ This Message was edited by: Lenny on 2004-01-13 04:44 ]

I think that my posts over the months have made people think I look down on systems. Nothing could be further from the truth as
I know there are System Pro's and Handicapping Pro's, both doing very nicely thank you !!
I just love to rubbish you system junkies [even though I do use them myself during the year ] because you get so defensive !!!

Cheers.

I think a system has to come to some sort of closure. One can go on and on, to polish the wheel, but then after the polishing,it may have a limit. I guess ya look for another wheel ?
But not having to re-invent.
Just use other options where it did not fit on the rim of the first wheel.
I think there was a post somewhere, where he/she uses 100 or so different systems.
( wonder if they own a tyre company!)

Hi Puntz,

I think it was Bahgwan (apologies for any spelling errors) that used ~100 systems. For what its worth, my two best systems are extremely light on the rules, and this is quite unexpected to me.

~Lenny