"Not that we need to worry too much about this game I think...they're a country mile ahead of the 'CANES."

Well I guess I'm the only one who thought 'canes would be very competitive (my system rated canes as the faves, by
-.22 points, so +11.5 was a steal). BTW, no home team should be +11.5 that is just rediculous.

Yeah, I had a small bet on them purely because they were a 'Home Dog'. I must admit that I didn't really think they would go as well as they did though! :smile:

Well,

Yesterday is now today and I've got a clear head so I'm gunna shut me mouth....TILL AFTER THE GAME'S

Weather. Warm and dry both places, what about Lang Park Sportz ?

Lang Park.... pretty damn cold and damp if you're a Waratahs player!!! :grin:

Sorry Mr J, but it's great to see the Reds keep that undefeated run intact. Anyway, the semi finalists are decided and it's Brumbies/Stormers and Crusaders/Chiefs.

Don't know what happened between the Bulls and the Cats!!!

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-09 06:52 ]

Geez we think alike sportnutz that old 'Home Dog' system shines again :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Unlucky Phil on 2004-05-09 07:40 ]

Go the Reds, (sorry Mr J) just love the local derbies mate! Some great picks Mr J and Sports...home doggies did well all right!

I think the Stormers travel to Crusader country dont they? Anyway, everyone should be feeling a little more comfortable the Blues are out cos they were starting to look ominous with some of their established players hitting form at the right time...Tri series should be a beauty!

4-2 for me this weekend. It's a real shame my system was right about the reds :sad:
NSW wouldn't have made it anyway, with the stormers picking up the 5 points and chiefs getting the bonus point.

Yep home dogs are the best bets in sports. Great trend to build a system on.

I can't believe I've had bets on EVERY game. I guess the super 12s betting market is really that inefficient. Anyway that takes my system to 51-15 this year.

Now super 12s is pretty much over I think I'll try and adapt the system to the NRL and AFL.

How do you guys rate the importance of home ground advantages in those 2 sports (esp AFL thanks to the travelling)?

Do any of you guys know a good site with NRL records for the previous 2-3 years? I don't think I'll need as many season due to the season being longer...

Anyway sportz where is your record at? Home dogs have done VERY well this year so I'm thinking you made a killing too :wink:

Mr J,

Betting on S12 has been incredible! This year, using TAB Sportsbet's prices, my Home Dog line betting system has gone 14-1. AMAZING!!! I hope some of you followed the system after I outlined the rules on here 2 months ago, because since that time it has gone 11-1. I kept thinking the run must stop but it never did.

In my system, I don't actually include games between 2 S.African teams or 2 NZ teams, but home dogs have done okay in those matches as well.

I made a mistake with those Semi finals next week. It will be Crusaders vs Stormers and Brumbies vs Chiefs. I must have got the 3rd and 4th finishing positions wrong.

With NRL and AFL stats, try these sites Mr J. They might have what you want:

For Rugby League:
http://stats.rleague.com/rl/rl_index.html
http://www.ozleague.com/statshq.asp

For Australian Rules:
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/afl_index.html
http://www.allthestats.com/
http://www.oztips.com/League.asp?l=AFL

If you like, I can explain all the different teams and which ones have the best home ground advantages and so on, but seeing how well you've done formulating a S12 system, I think you should be able to do something similar with NRL and AFL. :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-10 08:21 ]

Well I'm getting started...

Have to admit the S12 teams being divided into 3 countries made things quicker.

You know the thing I hate? Writing down all the stats and testing it against a previous season. I'll have to get the lines for the '01 season since I'm using '02+ info.

How much difficult is the NRL to beat than the Super 12s? If my system works I don't expect it to be as profitable.

Mr J,
Goldmember has provided interesting background info regarding previous history of matches between teams this year...for AFL and NRL...

Last weekend in the NRL for instance, Manly Sea Eagles and Newcastle Knights won at home against highly fancied Dragons and Bulldog outfits...so they are 2 homedog results...not sure about the larger (neutral?) stadium though..how that works?

AFL, I have not been successful so can not assist but there are always upsets between favourites and lesser teams (last weekend being a classic!)

Good luck in getting it together Mr J...reckon that S12 is such a unique situation in sport given the results though!