Floydyboy's form is the one to follow.
Apologies extended.

It's no real secret at all. I believe in making these things as simple as possible. Therefore, I only have 3 different penalties for playing away - 5,10 and 20 points. If a team has to travel interstate, I usually impose a 20 point penalty, but I do sometimes adjust that according to the records of the teams involved. For example, both Adelaide teams have a good record in Perth, so I only penalise them 10 points. If Essendon were playing at the Gabba this week, I would penalise them 20 points thus predicting a 28 point win for Brisbane.

By the way, as a Lions fan, I hope that I'm wrong and you're right about their game.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-10 07:42 ]

For what its worth here are my current ratings for AFL.

St.Kilda 132
Brisbane 115
Essendon 106
Melbourne 104
Geelong 102
Sydney 99
Fremantle 99
Port.Adel 98
Kangaroos 97
Adelaide 95
West Coast 86
Colli'wood 85
Carlton 73
Bulldogs 70
Hawthorn 69
Richmond 64

NO good on the swans game, had st kilda 1-39, they were gone after the 1st quarter, even though they got within 1 pt of the swans they were always chasing.

Need advice from very keen watchers of afl, [i didn't take much notice before],what is the more likely 1st stoppage in play a ball up or free kick, i think a mark would be less likely, any thoughts are welcome.

thanks

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-11 15:33 ]

"Therefore, I only have 3 different penalties for playing away - 5,10 and 20 points."

You don't think it's dangerous to be that casual? My system isn't that complicated but all the ratings and final score go down to the 100ths. That way I know exactly who to pick in the tight ones. I know for sure that if I rounded to only the nearest point for each rating, I wouldn't know whether to pick the bombers or the lions.

I look at how individual teams travel, but they don't necessarily get a penalty. Some actually deserve bonuses :wink:


BTW sportz, have 2 questions for you. How much is each point worth in the AFL? Exactly how much is each point with in the NRL?

I'm talking as in each point is worth say 10 cents or how much it affects win%.

NRL seems to be worth around 2.4% to 2.6% ????(i.e. a team with a 1 point start should be priced 1.91).

AFL worth 0.6% to 0.8%??? AFL scorelines seem to be 3-4x larger.

Essendon probally shouldn't have been a play. Even though my system says there's a little value it's not enough to warrant a bet.

Well we were all spot on for friday, the 27.5 too much for the blues and st george winning comfortably.

Mr J,

I guess your system is purely mechanical, so you have to be very precise. On the other hand, my ratings are based quite a bit on personal opinion and I like to keep things as simple as possible. I could get all technical and give lots of different penalties and bonuses, but I'd probably just end up confusing things.

I think you're probably about right with your estimate. I know that a point is worth about 2.5% in League and Union, but I hadn't really had a look at the AFL. At a guess though, I'd say maybe about 0.7%. Moeee actually has a formula for working out the odds based on a predicted margin. Maybe he can help you in some way.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-11 23:57 ]

[quote]
On 2004-06-09 13:59, goldmember wrote:
CARLTON v HAWTHORN

Carlton have lost their last 5 games against hawthorn, with this game being the 1st played between them at docklands.

last 4 games:
R17 2001 HAWTHORN 96-93 @ M.C.G
R 8 2002 HAWTHORN 89-80 @ M.C.G
R 6 2003 HAWTHORN 74-63 @ OPTUS OVAL
R21 2003 HAWTHORN 138-64 @ M.C.G
/[quote]

Historical stats are worth a review but it’s current stats and circumstances that generally shape the outcome.

You're right, my opinion has no influence on my picks. I like that in a way, means I'm unbiased and it's alot easier to be diciplined. I also don't know much about AFL so my opinions wouldn't be worth anything there anyway :wink:

I have a formula for the prices as well. I type in my predicted spreads, turns them into predicted outcome %, tells you what the breakeven bet is, what the 5% overlay is and what perceived edge your bet has. Also finds the breakeven line according to the bookies. I just need accurate figures as I was estimating 2.5% based on pinnacles numbers.

E.g. St george. My predicted spread was St George -2.66. If each point was worth 2.5%, then that'd give StG a 56.65% chance. At 56.7% chance, the fair price is roughly 1.77. My 5% buffer then says to take any price 1.85 or above. I got 2.02 and won :wink:

Wouldn't mind comparing to Moes to see if I have any errors.