I believe PPM had an article in the Nov 2008 issue on the Royal Routine System. Maybe they can help?

OR

Lay any odds on favourite in-play = $$$$$

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Trouble is they are as rare as hen's teeth and usually only end up as odds-on after the jump! Can't see a Rolla coming from that method and statistically 50% of them win anyway. Lay or bet, maths 101 says 'hopeless' proposition.

Not if you follow bookmaker's prices
Not if you do it all around the world

Bookies buy their rollers from odds on favourites going down the gurgler.

Currently sitting on 48% lay success (52% of them win), but it's all about the odds you lay them at.

Seen quite a few in-play bets at ridiculous short prices get rolled in Australia.
Last weekend at least three horses traded at $1.30 (and shorter) and were rolled.

I know you like the longshot backmarkers, and there's probably more buzz and more money to made from it, but I get a buzz (and some cash) when an odds on favourite trades at half SP just because they all go mad in-play and one of your backmarkers spoils the party

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Please explain. How does 48% lay success at odds-on prices result in a profit? You would need better that 50% at odds-on profit to make a profit says maths 101. Isn't that right [?]

52 horses win out of 100

Average dividend of winner $1.58

Backing them is 52% Strike rate, so you lose 17.84 units every hundred runners

Ergo, 48% of them lose, so you make 17.84 units every hundred runners - laying.

However, that's at bookie's prices, once you let it go in-play....the world's your oyster because of the very high place strike rate and punter reactions.

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Geez, I'll never get my head around this laying business. Thanks for the knees-up Chrome.

I will have to think about this CP, on face value it sounds right, but I'm not sure. It all depends on the odds you can get, I think.
Assuming that the market HAS to even out to 100% is not necessarily correct.

I very well may be wrong here, have to check it with some numbers.
Cheers

Several 1.01's have been beaten since we've had in-play, along with a myriad of other short quotes. I was lucky enough to jag 2 of the ultimate prizes in 1 week.

Often you can see 120% or more on the lay side......but good luck grabbing it.

I had a 1.03 beaten the other day, and the winner traded at 1000, but alas I didn't have that one.

I actually did a bit of research on the in-play situation a while back.
I wanted to see just how the market reacts and just how viable it was.

I imagined, you wouldn't get matched on the fallers, the unseated riders and those that came out sideways etc, so would laying below Betfair SP be profitable?

I considered all horses at first and ran it over the data.

The longer the price of the horse, the worse it was, the more you were laying winners.

However, one thing really stood out.

Horses that start odds on, including fallers, no hopers, and those that just didn't get a clean break (this percentage was negligible) was still profitable to lay below Betfair SP, providing you don't get greedy.

There were 820 horses that ended up odds on at Ladbrokes before the jump in the sample, that also traded at or below the final Ladbrokes price
460 of them won.
So a 56% win strike rate ( higher because of the UK jumps).

That's a 44% lay success on odds on favourites without including the ones that never traded at or below Ladbrokes final price.

The average dividend was $1.61 based on Ladbrokes prices

So that's a 9% POT laying them at those prices, but before commission.

It purely works because they have a very high place strike rate, and the percentage of unplaced horses, that did not trade lower at some point in the race, is tiny.

In fact it's profitable just above even money, where it is a clear cut sole favourite.

When going further out in the market, the further you go on price, the more you're laying winners.

I believe I have only lost 1% of the bookies premium when not getting matched on the one's that didn't trade lower, over a large set of races.
the 52 out of 100 are the last set this month on Aus and UK races combined, that I've covered.
Of the 820 in the sample, you'd have won 78.1 units before commission.

I allow for commission in my prices, but the bets are staggered.

I actuallly got the idea after reading the Betfair forum.

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