Here's food for thought, given the bias towards longshots being way overpriced on Betfair, I've always lived by this saying in punting terms, as it's proven in the data.

"The worse a horse is, the more you'll lose laying it, unless you can find a way to lay it lower."

Think about the words contained in that saying, it summarizes why people lose money, the thought process is a punting thought process and not a laying thought process, the very first danger to the novice layer.

Imagine a rails bookmaker offering $5.00 about a $3.50 shot or $1000 about a $150.00 shot, then think about how much they make, 15% to 20% less turnover tax and track fees and licences.

And people want to lay horses higher? Madness

If bookies gave Betfair prices about horses, there would be no bookies within a month or less, and that is why layers have to lay smart and not take what is offered just because they think it won't win.

If I lay this horse at this price and it wins at the expected ratio, will I make a profit - unfortunately the answer is usually no, especially when commission is factored in.

I posted this before, but favourites at Canterbury are overbet and so are first starters, you can make a profit laying at betfair prices plus commission, and there are plenty of other angles also. There are many more thatwill bust you at Betfair prices though. You must research before putting hard earned on or guessing or picking.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Horses at 100/1 on the tote, the breakeven is $304.00, but most of them you have to lay at 500/1 or more, meaning you'll lose a minimum of 65% plus commission laying them.

Staggering.

You will however win for approximately 300 races before you make a whopping loss.

Very sobering.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Or maybe none. There's nothing to say it won't get up on your first lay.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

" the thought process is a punting thought process and not a laying thought process, the very first danger to the novice layer".

I could not agree more CP. Most people operate with punters brains and not bookies brains. Not saying they are wrong, BUT, you cannot go into laying expecting to make consistent profits using a punters brain.

I've been laying (probably around 98% of my t/o) successfully on BF for 5 years now. I don't think I'd make it as a punter any more as I just don't have the right mindset. I have 2 friends, both wanted me to show them what I do.

Let's call them B & G.
B sat with me for hours, even taking notes (very flattering), and now makes a regular part-time income from BF. He is disciplined (extremely important) and single minded. He did not have a losing market last year until mid-way through December, when by his own admission he was working while tired, and trying to force a price. He does not ever bet on horses ! He regularly rings me to say "have a look at such and such a market".
G on the other hand wanted the quick fix. "Show me one race, I'll pick it up", he said. Needless to say, whenever I see G, he usually starts with, "went to the TAB, nearly got a big trifecta etc, haven't looked at BF for a while, might try it tomorrow".

B is no smarter than G, but he has discipline, a major factor in defining who will win and who will not.

Laying is completely different to backing. I've heard people say it's the same but the opposite. Succesful laying is not, it is much more. As Chrome put it, it is a completely different thought process.

As an example, last Saturday, who gave Danewin Lodge a chance of winning. Certainly not me, I had it running closer to last. It was my best result of the day by far. Different mindset.

Best of luck to anyone who takes on laying.

So true, AP

But perhaps it gets more dangerous the longer you win.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Mark are you basically saying that a good lay process is -

A: pick and choose specific horses, who you think are either no chance (and are in the market) or are gross unders, and lay them specifically

or

B: try to lay an entire market, at about 110%, by putting up prices early then adjusting, adjusting, adjusting, monitoring totes/bookie flucs, etc, to try to "balance a book", like the old style "figures bookies"

Would you say you are one, or both, or neither of these? Also, what are your comments on the viability of those two methods for potential lay punters? Interested in Chrome Prince's thoughts on this, too, and anyone who would like to offer an opinion.

110%..........now wouldn't that be nice!!! I worked 10 races on Saturday, averaged 95%, and only won on half of them, but still had a winning day.

I used to work for one of the old style figures bookies, probably the best in the game.

I find myself being somewhere in the middle of the options you've given.
I do some form study, I look at gear changes, do rating's for the better races, and then try to lay accordingly.
When I work a race I always try to make the fav the worst result. I don't lay horses @ 10 or more, unless I've rated them as no chance. I try to have no losers, but when this doesn't work, I try to have no more than 2 losers. In Danewin Lodges race, he was the only runner I didn't lay.
1 break even, 2 loser (fav), 3 winner, 4 winner, 5 winner, 6 small loser, 7 a skinner. I gave 1,6 & 7 no chance, and laid accordingly, except 7 which was over 100/1. I did well this race achieving 103%.

I don't know that there is a set way of winning, everyone has a different approach, and what works for one, may not work for another.

Hi Grand Armee,

I'll let Mark speak for himself as he is the master at making books.

For myself, I dabble in a mixture and it really depends on the type of race (number of runners, price of favourite).

In a general open race, I try to lay below market price (there are many ways to achieve this), I do extremely well in very small fields with an odds on runner making books.
The best race for me is 4 or 5 runners with a heavy odds on runner.
I can consistently make at least 110% market, because it's pretty obvious what will drift and what will firm, especially if you get in hours before the race on UK markets.

On the occasions I get it wrong and the favourite drifts and second or third fave comes in a point or two, I can usually trade out of trouble.

It is very hard to get horses outside the top 4 in the market at bookies odds.

I never look at horses with less chance because you usually have to lay them too high, because the public also think they are no chance.

I concentrate on which horse I'm most likely to get matched at under tote odds, and it usually isn't the favourite

I also look at various ways to lay significantly under the tote price.

When you get it right making books, it's a buzz.
When you get it right trading it's also a buzz.
When you lay well below tote odds - buzz.

When any of these scenarios don't pan out, it can be disasterous.

Above all, I reckon you must have a second approach or way to get out without risking the entire stake.

Right now I lay, trade and make books, form or picking horses has very little to do with anything remotely regarding my experience on Betfair, except when I see very good overs on a champion racehorse or pacer.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

I should add that what I've written above is what I do on Aussie races, the UK is completely different. I only make books when I can lay at over 100%. Right now I'm part way into backing every runner in the Southwell 23.50 (QLD time). Should be able to get them in at around 97%, and that's after laying them all at around 105%.....double buzz!!!


And speaking of books over 100%, has anyone been looking at the US Presidential markets?.............pure gold.

Mike Huckabee still at 20/1, I would have thought 10/1 is closer to the mark.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg