Pure mathematics is what works for me. No form analysis, just statistics and probability. Take the emotion and decision making out by using an automated bot.

There are so many derivations within those three, but I reckon I'm in the first category.
It is very hard to make this game pay from a punting angle, those that do are yards ahead of the field.
Crunching numbers is my thing, I like the challenge of finding viable methods using strike rate and average odds.
It's actually a much more complicated matrix than it appears.
Added to that, unless you're standing next to the horse, one has to realise that there will always be someone else who knows more about it than you do.
Sometimes, one will see value, snap it up, only to see the price blow like a north wind.
Vice versa.
It's the overall picture that counts.

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What a cracker thread Barny. Here's another little separation that has had me up at nights.

There are those that believe you MUST look for value or you simply cannot make it work and there are those that believe the dividend is the most accurate representation of a horses chances.

At the end of the day those of us lucky enough to have a winning system in their pockets are in essence beating the general opinion of the masses because that is the nature of dividends.

BUT.....here I am using a clever little collection of simple rules that has a strike rate that few would believe and yet it doesn't work if I ignore the popular opinion of the masses. In some people's eyes I would be looking for poor value.

Personally, I feel this simply underlines the fact that this must be the most sophisticated, complicated and wonderful way to make a cracker.

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

Twobets

It sounds like everyone in this thread are using a very similar system/strategy. Now wouldn't that be funny.

The underlying fear, that is fear of losing the tools we use because let's say a day of a electrical storm blots out the ability to have the computers working, the race venue running on just enough emergency power to keep the pies warm and the beer cold, (it happened one day at Cheltenham) and the bookies were still taking bets, they were "blind" to cos there was no tote screen.

If that was a scenario this Saturday, what are the options, what trump card would a punter have up their sleeve to get out in front and take advantage of the situation?

If one has a "trump card system", what would it be?

I was there at Cheltenham when the power blackout happened.
It was a day at the races that was rare in a sense, a rawness, no electricity, yet the races still went on and the bookies still took bets and the prices seemed to have a aura of good Value that day.
No one had a tote screen to look at.

Does anyone remember the days with no tote screen in the betting ring because the technology was not there at the time?

What "system" did the punter of that era have then?

I recently read a newspaper article about a punter who bets millions each week at several Australian TABs, mainly with the Tasmanian TAB, or at least this is where the information for the article came from (and it was I believe originally his home state). He also punts with overseas totes. This punter has staff working for him. He says that he uses probabilities based on form methods that are well known and freely available. He makes a massive income and is quite wealthy from his punting. I assume he bets according to the Woolworth's principle and has high turnover with small profit margins. Someone else employed an actuary to try to replicate his approach but without success. He makes a point of being discreet about his wealth, rather than being a traditional flamboyant punter.

The point relevant to this thread is that he has a successful system which is based on sound form analysis (ratings), and calculation of the chances of horses (odds). He has obviously worked out a good algorithm to decide where to make his cut off point in the ratings so as to make an edge in his favour.

He says he has made errors, some bad. For example, he bet against Makybe Diva to loose her last Melbourne Cup. His excuse was that he laid his bet before they watered the track!

I have two issues with his punting. Firstly, he has a direct computer connection with the TAB and he bets at the last minute, which makes it very difficult for ordinary punters to assess the market for value. Secondly, because he is a big bettor he gets incentives which amount to a reduced percentage of the take out, which ordinary punters do not.

Anyway, for this thread it seems a successful system in the long haul needs good analysis of each horse's chances plus a willingness to take a small POT, and of course a little help from the TAB.

A very good point gunny, but if you had his money and attracted the rebates he does, and could manipulate the markets as he does, you couldn't help but make a low POT but huge profit.

It is well documented in the press how he manages to profit by his rebates and short priced horses for the place.
It is not about the system, it is about the prices he achieves.
The system identifies what he will have a go at, but without rebates and manipulation, he'd be struggling just as much as the next punter to make a profit.

Put this up against Mr Read who used his own ratings to make a profit because the actual ratings defied the market and it's no contest.

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Yes , I agree there Chrome.

With a number of these guys , including the ones in the US , they say if it was not for the rebates they receive, then their punting exercise would not be nearly as profitable.

In some instances, they would only have to break even at average, before rebate results, to show a profit.
Because once the rebate kicks in .
Bingo!
They are now in profit.

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Cheers.

Combination of mostly 1) & a little of 2)

But I often wonder if I have taken the more difficult route, as I can honestly say I do not recall the last time I went to the races with just a pen & a bit of cash, paid $5 for a racebook & came home with less in my pocket than I went with.

If I could find a way to get myself to the races most days of the week I reckon I would have this game down cold...loan of a helicopter anyone

Puntz makes a good point here. Part of a systems structure are the non-racing elements such as power, availability of data, access to tools, etc. How many systems are based on being able to access data from one source? If Racing and Sports shutdown tomorrow many here are probably out of business. This is a system failure. I drive to my cousins wedding in the country and don't have time to put my bet's on therefore missing a winner that will turn my profit around for the month. This is a system failure. Similarly the power fails at home or the Betfair API has troubles and I miss that important winner. This is a system failure.

You can protect yourself to some degree by having multiple data sources; run your operations from multiple sites; and, maybe even have a partner to place your bets when you are unavailable (bots make good partners ). These things would all be in the business plan.

The most vulnerable element of your system is you, and more specifically what's going on between your ears. I suspect this is where most fail - operator error.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash