All I currently look at is rated price and starting price, no price movements at the moment.

I'm just trying to get my head around overs and unders. At the moment I don't see the logic.

If a horse has $2.00 fixed odds in Race 1

On racing and sports the don scott rating might be $1.50, hence a overlay.
But another set of ratings might have this at 2.50 which is an underlay.

What set of ratings are correct? I would assume by being able to see over history - comparing both the strike rate of all $2.00 rated horses on don scott and the $2.00 rated chances on the other ratings.

Should you not see a 50% strike long term give or take.

If the strike rate over 50,000 bets (example) in racing and sports for $1.50 horses is 40%, then the price is not $1.50 but it should be set at $2.50.

What is the point to finding value in ratings when you are really underbetting in thinking its an overbet.

I suppose it is really difficult to measure as we don't know the true value of a horse and its chances. We can assume on history only.

Wouldn't the 'true value' of a horse be what the market prices it at the jump, this being a combination of facts about a horses chances which are known and unknown to Joe P?

A consistent ratings machine being just the starting point for a shortlist of runners which can win, the ultimate filter for those that are most likely to win being the movement of price from PP to open to jump?

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

I can understand your point mate, what I am doing goes against everything I have ever been taught but it has found a very solid profit during the testing period so I am going to run with it. As far as what ratings do you follow only you can decide that, what works in one scenario won't work in another as ratings are very subjective depending on the method.

Perhaps you need to take a closer look at your method of converting your ratings into Prices.
Could you post your method , or would you prefer to keep it a secret?

I'll keep the ratings method to myself (although its really nothing special) but the pricing method I use is one that was posted on here a while back from a Betfair article that uses a power number. I think you mentioned that you use it for your greyhound ratings?

I found the whole idea quite by accident when I was looking at ways to filter the ratings, I just put all selections in a spreadsheet with the rated price and SP (TAB not track) and then started a few "what if" scenarios.

Okay.
Then you have my full approval Mattio.
I would suggest that you increase the Power number so that your Odds a stretched a little more.
It seems your top selections are being undervalued consistantly.
Increase the power Number an amount that shortens your top selections a little more.

Woof43 wrote a good post very recently.
Can't remeber exactly what it was , but ain't hard to find.
Something about the frequency of your selections winning is about your handicapping skills.
And the strike rate of your selections is about your Pricing Methods.

Nah - best I find the post.
I'll chuck it in the EDIT.

EDIT : Its actually in this thread
"Remember you need to measure your handicapping with Strike rate and Wagering with ROI."

Matt

Yes I mentioned that method in a "Crowd Ratings" posting yesterday. The POWER figure is all important. 0.9 is about right for those ratings.

"Crowd Ratings" will be travelling to the west today. Just got out of bed so it's a little late to do anywhere else.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

I use 0.9 for my ratings but sometimes I make adjustments anywhere up to 0.94 if the result seems too far out of whack.

Chrome, are you able to email me as I am working on something that I think you can help with - weststigers4life at hotmail dot com

Cheers,

Mat.