Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > General Topics
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #21  
Old 31st October 2019, 08:58 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,534
Default

Evajb001,

Sorry for the late reply to your post but I have been travelling this week and unable to reply.

That is an amazing effort. You should be extremely proud of what you have achieved.

If you know that sports is where you edge is then that is where you should concentrate your efforts. Dabble elsewhere (horse racing) but really nail down your area of expertise and profit from it. My question would be though how sure are you that you have an edge and its not luck based ? What is the result of running an archie score against your results ? (Archie is the equivalent of a short cut chi test). What happens if you remove your biggest winner to your results? What about your 3 biggest winners? Do the same with the losers, ie what is the result excluding your biggest loser or 3 biggest losers? Has it been profitable every day/month/year/season?

Those are the sort of questions you need to ask as a starting point and I think it will help you either become a little bit wary of the results or it will reinforce your belief in your systems.

Turning over 36K in sports is a great start. Can you do 100K in the next 12 months? At an 11% profit I'll assume as you increase turnover that will reduce. Lets assume a 5% profit instead. In order to make 100K a year you need to turnover 2 million dollars. Next year do 100K then make your goal to double that every year. 100K -> 200K -> 400K -> 800K -> 1.6 Mill -> 3.2 Million. So in 6 years you could have a 100K passive income if you can hit this goal even if it reduces your profit percentage by half. The math is quite simple, so if you believe you have the edge you now have a 6 year goal. Work hard at it for 6 years and you have what you want. Seems like a good deal to me.

Of course its not as simple as the above so don't worry about the 2 million. Instead aim for 100K this year. That is simple I do that in a few hours on a Saturday so its very possible for you to do that amount over a year. 100K working backwards is say 40K in the first 6 months and 60K in the second 6 months. Of the 40K in the first 6 months 15K in the first 3 months and 25K the second three months. 15K is only 5K per month turnover. I just read you have done 36K turnover this year so 5K is a piece of cake.

Working through what I would aim for:
1st month = 1K = 1K
2nd Month = 3k = 4K
3rd Month = 5K = 9K
4th Month = 7K = 16K
5th Month = 9K = 25K
6th Month = 10K = 35K
7th Month = 10K = 45K
8th Month = 11K = 56K
9th Month = 11K = 67K
10th Month = 11K = 78K
11th Month = 12K = 90K
12th Month = 12K = 102K

Your aim is to turn over 1K in November, then 3K in December. That should be easy at your current bet levels. When it jumps to 5K it will likley stretch your comfort, when it gets to 10K it will really stretch your comfort. This assumes you stay profitable and continue to build your bank. If you lose you can't continue up the ladder as betting more requires bigger bank. So just don't lose any month and your sweet.

You need to bet within your bank limits but don't hold yourself back by fearing the big loss. If its a small part of your overall bank then you need to be confident you can recover any losses. You will never make more money without betting more, and you will never gain confidence in it till you bet more.

Keep in mind all of the above assumes you have an edge. If you don't then all the advice above will just send you to the poor house quicker.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 1st November 2019, 05:57 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,534
Default

Well October finished with a bang with the last week producing just short of 12K. My best week ever has been 15K so not far off.

The months results day by day are below:

1371.44
1785.39
1085.43
509.51
2793.8
2735
1828.2
14.46
-2550.12
690.49
-2215.15
305.9
927.06
1416.38
2582.51
914.32
-763.84
-929.21
21.28
2852.21
1760.16
1401.44
1088.11
-482.91
450.07
5701.31
235.67
2118.14
1096.76
1301.38
1055.69

The month only had 5 losing days which is below the average of 8 losing days. As such the total winnings of 30K for the month is astounding and I am very grateful for such a good month.

It just shows that after you do have a run of bad luck that it does turn and you also get those runs of good luck.

Hopefully everyone had a profitable October and lets get some good profits in November especially with the cup week.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 1st November 2019, 10:59 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,457
Default

Hey UB, if i can ask, how many different type of bets or strategies do you have running for these results?
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 1st November 2019, 05:49 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,534
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Hey UB, if i can ask, how many different type of bets or strategies do you have running for these results?


For October I bet 107 systems. I monitor way more than this but most are not bet.

From the 107 systems there were only 18 systems which lost. The worst by $935.09. The best system returned 3031.48.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 1st November 2019, 09:52 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,457
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
For October I bet 107 systems. I monitor way more than this but most are not bet.

From the 107 systems there were only 18 systems which lost. The worst by $935.09. The best system returned 3031.48.


So just a few,lol, so is it fair to say when it comes to an individual race if you had multiple selections the result of the race win lose or draw isn't exactly a factor as long as the systems involved are winners, in the long run that is.
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 1st November 2019, 09:59 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,534
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
So just a few,lol, so is it fair to say when it comes to an individual race if you had multiple selections the result of the race win lose or draw isn't exactly a factor as long as the systems involved are winners, in the long run that is.


Exactly right. But my winning strike rate for races are about 99.6%. That is because I cover many chances, not only one per race.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 1st November 2019, 10:22 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,457
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Exactly right. But my winning strike rate for races are about 99.6%. That is because I cover many chances, not only one per race.


Yes that would make sense, but how many races would you profit on? i am just assuming you have different staking per system.
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 2nd November 2019, 06:50 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,534
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Yes that would make sense, but how many races would you profit on? i am just assuming you have different staking per system.


Every system uses level stakes and all use the same amount. When you bet big you don't get as much choice with fancy staking plans.Level profit works and while it has its drawbacks it is safest at this level of betting.

I profit on a races/sports every few minutes as I bet 24/7/365 across multiple codes (horse, greys, harness, soccer, rugby, tennis, baseball, basketball, etc). I always find Christmas day and good Friday interesting days. I use those days for offsite backups and maintenance activities as there is very little action on those two days (some football games on christmas day).

My goal is to become a 1 billion turnover per year punter. I see no reason I can not achieve this within the next couple of years considering I am already near $300 million per year. It has become more difficult now though as I can hit liquidity problems with some markets so I can't just increase my bet size and get matched so I need to find more systems, look at more sports, etc.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 2nd November 2019, 08:47 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,457
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Every system uses level stakes and all use the same amount. When you bet big you don't get as much choice with fancy staking plans.Level profit works and while it has its drawbacks it is safest at this level of betting.

I profit on a races/sports every few minutes as I bet 24/7/365 across multiple codes (horse, greys, harness, soccer, rugby, tennis, baseball, basketball, etc). I always find Christmas day and good Friday interesting days. I use those days for offsite backups and maintenance activities as there is very little action on those two days (some football games on christmas day).

My goal is to become a 1 billion turnover per year punter. I see no reason I can not achieve this within the next couple of years considering I am already near $300 million per year. It has become more difficult now though as I can hit liquidity problems with some markets so I can't just increase my bet size and get matched so I need to find more systems, look at more sports, etc.


Sorry for all the question, i just find the way you do things interesting, when it comes to monitoring your systems is this a live situation as results happen or do you calculate at the end of day, i guess there is no real end of day for you, just the thought of live monitoring over 100 systems is huge.
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 2nd November 2019, 09:58 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,534
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Sorry for all the question, i just find the way you do things interesting, when it comes to monitoring your systems is this a live situation as results happen or do you calculate at the end of day, i guess there is no real end of day for you, just the thought of live monitoring over 100 systems is huge.


Yes its all live monitoring. Its all automated so I do nothing. I record my result for each day from midnight to midnight as the account balance is checked every couple of minutes all day long and recorded.

I live monitor at least 500+ systems. I have disabled quite a few too which have recorded for about 3 years and were not good enough.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 01:36 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655