Hi, Stugots.

I've looked at Unitab's ratings to see if I could find some sort of consistency in the accidents, but only those selections that were rated with 90 Unitab points or more. However I soon disregarded this because there were many selections that became smiles, and the resulting profit was high. As mentioned, I unfortunately only looked at the ratings but not the rankings as you suggest.

Yes, yesterday's two accidents were both ranked in the top four of Unitab's selections.

Thanks for your suggestion, Stugots which I think may have merit. I have not identified those selections that are in Unitab's top four rankings but I will do so when I get the time to go through the records, and will report the results here, hopefully before I list today's selections. I don't expect too many selections because it would not be common for D.S to price something at $100-plus yet it be in the top four in Unitab's rankings But there's only one way to find out which I will do.

Michaelg, here are some number to assist you.

Using the following rules ONLY

a) Not 1st or 2nd up
b) Min 9 prev. starts
c) Placed 7th or worse last start

produces 8.2% winners broken down as follows:-

AAP Price ..... %
1.1 - 6 ..... 4.2%
6.1 - 11 ... 2.3%
11.1 - 16 .. 0.8%
16.1 - 21 .. 0.5%
21.1 - 26 .. 0.1%
26.1 - 31 .. 0.1%
31.1 - 36 .. 0.1%
36.1+ ...... 0.1%

The price seems to be a very good guide :-)

Sample size 186k races 2m neddies.

Stugots, I have checked the accidents that were in Unitab's top 4 or equal top four rankings/selections.

There were 14 such accidents from an overall total of 31 accidents.

However, I don't know how many smiles there were from Unitab's top four rankings or their results (it would have taken ages to do so), so I can't say with any certainty if it is better to apply your suggestion as a filter.

But because almost 50% of the accidents were in the top four Unitab rankings I therefore have to assume it would have been better to omit them from the method. The resulting "smiles" strike rate may have been close to 99%, and so if I/anyone ever decides to apply some sort of stakings/recovery plan it might be less dangerous.

From today your suggestion is a filter.

If I get time I will look at betting Unitab's top four rankings.

Nice work michaelg.

I may have a suitable staking/recovery plan - are you able to bang all the the selections into one post or spreadsheet for ease of testing (assuming you have these to hand) or are we talking something more lengthy than the dead sea scrolls?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Interesting Michael - just a rough count from yesterday I came up with 5 out of 38 bets ranked top 4, so approx 13% of bets.

If yesterday was typical then dropping ~ 13% of bets to eliminate 40% to 50% of winners should improve the bottom line.

Demodocus, thanks for your "simple" size.

Is (b) correct - 9 previous starts? Or should it be a minimum of 9 starters?

Unfortunately I would have to be at my computer to check out the prices of the qualifiers which I am unable/cannot do, but still it is very interesting. As you say, the price seems to be a very good guide - this might be connected to Unitab's rankings as suggested by Stugots.

L.G. unfortunately I don't have the results on the computer. I can't help your inquiry, but thanks for your offer.

Stugots, I agree with your analysis of yesterday. According to my reckoning there are three selections today that your filter has eliminated.

Today's selections:

Goulburn
1/3, 11
7/2, 14

Pinjarra
1/14, 17
2/4, 11
3/4, 5
4, 2, 6
5/7
6/11
7/16

Seymour
8/4

Oh dear. Old age, a tiny mind, and a stone heart are catching up with me. Let's try again :-)

Sole Parameters (nothing else) :-

a) Not 1st or 2nd up
b) Minimum 2 previous starts
c) Last run place 7th or worse
d) Field >8 starters

Bulk result .......... 6.27% WSR

AAPPrice ............ WSR
1.1 - 6 .......... 2.94%
6.1 - 11 ........ 1.52%
11.1 - 16 ...... 0.81%
16.1 - 21 ...... 0.26%
21.1 - 26 ...... 0.16%
26.1 - 31 ...... 0.03%
31.1 - 36 ...... 0.09%
36.1 - 41 ...... 0.05%
41+ ............. 0.06%

And there you have it :-)

Regards,

RB

It's a window into another dimension, RB!

AAP would be ************** etc?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Be careful, my Lord, I run something similar every day using BetSender. There are still disasters :-)

My dog now has only three legs.

RB

All understood RB...

Tread carefully (and tell that to fido out back)

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB