Today's 22 selections were beaten for a profit of $145.76.

Back in the black Michaelg.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Yes, TS, but it's still got $444 to make up for Tuesday's loss.

If I had started from day one (Friday 7 December) laying for the current $333 liability the method would now be in profit by $4,585. So at the moment I'm still somewhat hopeful even though a couple of quick accidents do put a dent in one's confidence and create some negative thoughts and expectations.

Today's selections:

Grafton
4/12
5/10
8/11, 13
9/13
10/10, 12

Seymour
2/2
3/9
8/9, 12

Sun Coast
4/5
5/9, 12
6/6
7/5, 9, 11

Pt Lincoln
7/7

Geraldton
3/3, 6
4/4, 10
7/5, 7

You're batting at a 98% SR Michaelg, 2 out of every 100 will be losses. Simple at the moment.

I noticed both the accidents were c or t/d winners. Something in that?

Great thread!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Thanks for your observation, TS.

I haven't paid attention to the selection's history apart from it's last start placing and if resuming now or at previous start, but as soon as I get the time I will do so and report back here.

It certainly would have saved Tuesday's two accidents but it may have prevented many smiles - even though it will be time consuming I have to check it out.

The Schmile, I've decided to omit any horse with a "C", "D" or "T" in its form. It will reduce the amount of selections but I don't think there would be too many of them that are $100-plus in D.S's market. However, one of them ran second today so that's convinced me. Better safe than sorry applies to the method because even one accident causes heart ache which takes some time to recoup.

A good day - from the 25 selection there were 25 Schmiles for a profit of $262.17.

michaelg have you looked at laying the place as well?

Hi Michaelg,

I'd be interested in what percentage of the accidents were T, C or D?

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Hi, Mark.

I Place layed the selections for only one day but I then stopped. I lost interest because Betfair unfortunately fielded (and still does) S.P. for the Place on major tracks only.

The Schmile, I've checked the accidents for "C'' "T" and "D".

There's been from day one a total of 1,802 selections for 34 accidents. Of these there have been 16 that come under the above form scenario - that is almost 50% of all accidents. I don't how many smiles this filter would have eliminated (none of the Maiden races) but I'd be surprised if it did not increase the strike rate and profit.

So from today I'm adding this as the "The Schmile" filter.

Michael and Schmile
A quick check of yesterday's fields shows that of 299 horses listed in the 3 east coast meetings there were 87 that had a C,D or T. About 29%.
Looks like a good decision to omit them.
Having said that I'm going to leave them in with a reduced liability to see how it affects the DS100 selections. I'll report back in a couple of weeks.
You've all done very well .............