Thanks, SpeedyBen. I'm looking forward for the results of your research.

I read Don Scott's book how he prices a horse. I'm fairly certain he did not take into account the C, T and D factors unless the horse won recently, yet today's electronic and printed form guides think it's worthwhile to show this information regardless of when the horse won.

If his market still ignores this form factor then its possible his market for his "outsiders" may have a weak point as evidenced by our Lay method that shows 16 accidents from the total of 34.

Today's selections:

Moonee Valley
4/2, 9

Walcha
1/2, 13
2/3, 6, 9
5/9, 10
6/5, 11

Pakenham
3/4
4/1
5/3, 11
7/8
9/9, 11

Canberra
6/3, 5

Bunbury
2/6
3/9, 11
4/1, 7
5/6, 9

A fair enough response michaelg. Despite no SP on most races have you kept records of how many ran a place?

Unfortunately no. I can check my records but that will take ages, but I'm not too sure if/where Betfair keeps their Place results.

Most of the time on the country tracks (and sometimes the city ones) there is just no volume for placing any meaningful back or lay place bets.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Another weak point, which you have overcome, is that the ratings show unraced and untrialled horses at $301 dollars or so instead of putting N/R next to them.

A bad day - there was one accident from the 26 selections for a loss of $173.40.

michaelg,

I hope you have been recording down all the info in a spreadsheet so you can check things easily.

If so could you provide a breakdown based on field size. I think you might find most of the accidents fall in the fields sized 9 through to 12.

Hi, U.B.

Not knowing anything about computers I don't have a spreadsheet.

However I've manually looked at the results from last Saturday.

Regardless of field size there have been 3 accidents for a profit of $453, and with fields of 13-plus there's been a profit of $331 but with no accidents.

It's something I will look at when I get time. Maybe it's worthwhile to increase the size of the standard bet in these larger fields. If there's any selections today in these larger fields I will identify them.

thanks michael.