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#31
2nd July 2008, 07:13 AM
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I'm currently testing one of my systems by using a staking approach of multiplying the average dividend by the strike rate (e.g. 35% S/R x $5.00 average div = 1.75). Calculated after each day's racing, so next race day I would bet 1.75% of the bank on each selection.
The actual example for today for the system I am testing is 1.91% of bank for the win (34.38% x $5.55) and 1.34% of bank for the place (68.75% x $1.91). I'm not real flash at the mathematical side of things, so I would welcome any comments on the sense or otherwise of using this staking method. 
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#32
2nd July 2008, 08:55 AM
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Quote:
A sensible approach for a side bank that adds interest. 1/5th of bank [20%]. Simple and safe version of percentage betting, not progressive betting. Last edited by crash : 2nd July 2008 at 08:59 AM.
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#33
2nd July 2008, 12:09 PM
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It's that discipline again, sounds practical to me, level stakes but constantly up-dated. It does remind me of something from Trevor Hindmarsh (think that's his name) had something to do with the Wizard I remember, anyway he advocated this correlation between S/R and ave. divi.
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#34
2nd July 2008, 12:57 PM
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Steve M
MINIMUM divisor must NEVER fall below that figure. Remember your taking the ODDS of winners off your MAXIMUM divisors and what divisors are left thereafter.BUT never go below your MINIMUM divisor. In the case of the 6 point plan the MINIMUM divisor is 2. In my approach IF the stake exceeds the target I am aiming for I add another MAXIMUM divisor for safety reasons. i.e TARGET $60 bet size $62 I add another 6 to the remaining divisor. Hope that helps. Cheers. darky ps .A mate bets level stakes and adds the square root of any profit to the bet. Horses for courses I guess/ Last edited by darkydog2002 : 2nd July 2008 at 01:00 PM.
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#35
2nd July 2008, 09:37 PM
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Thanks for that partypooper
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#36
3rd July 2008, 12:54 PM
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just a further thought on this one, I spent many, many hours trying to turn a slight loss into a slight profit, with a staking plan (i.e. when I got real , I am happy with 4% POT)
The time was better spent weeding out that the types of selections that were definitly not profitable over a long period of time eg. Races for Mares & Fillies only, horses ridden by a 3kg claimer etc etc. Then concentrating on getting the best possible odds, i.e. say your method shows a slight loss say 2% on turnover, and you have 1000 bets a year of $100 each, so you will lose $2000, for an argument say your S/R is 30% so in this example your average divi is $3.27........ NOW concentrate on getting 10% better odds by using betfair, Best Tote, bookies etc, IF you achieve it, you will return 300 winners @ $3.6 = $8000 PROFIT (8%) talking averages of course! With exactly the same selections!! Last edited by partypooper : 3rd July 2008 at 12:55 PM. Reason: omission
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#37
3rd July 2008, 02:47 PM
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sound logic once again there partyp,
getting the best price one can certainly is the way to go, i would add that also attempting to identify when a selection represents poor value & passing not just backing at any old price just because the 'system' says so is worth some thought. with regards to best price, time constraints of late have often meant ive had to place most of my bets on well before start time (which i normally hate doing because it meant betting with the tab), but i have had a go at betfairs 'sp' & so far its held up when compared to tote prices. some of the shorties have been under but the longer priced nags have all paid over the tabs, on one ocassion >$5 better  , interested if anyone else has had a go?
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#38
3rd July 2008, 04:10 PM
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ahh! the question of "Value" all things to all men. I mean say a selection is showing $1.50 for the win and $1.20c for the place, there is an argument that is good value for the place, but does that stand up statistically? I mean if we take ALL starters @ $1.50c what % are placed ? if the answer comes up @ less than 85%, there is an argument to say that it is NOT good value as you would lose overall, hee hee! I'm just being naughty here! of course there's a myriad of other parameters that have to looked at as well.
But just for further food for thought , STUGOTS, I also have to place some bet's well b4 racing, so I always use Best Tote, or if the selection is also pre-post fav I take Top Fluc, I seem to get some great "overs" doing that, I would be interested if anyone has actual figures to show a definite advantage?
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#40
4th July 2008, 01:42 PM
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PartyP be interesting to be able to compare the 2 over time, Best Tote & Betfair SP, just to illustrate my point i snagged Happy Honey today 1st at Bendigo - the tabs paid around $17-$19, BFSP delivered me $23 those 2yold maidens - got to love em Last edited by stugots : 4th July 2008 at 01:48 PM.
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