IT'S NOT WORKING!

My deadly set of ratings have died.
God rest their poor soul.

Enter the DART SYSTEM Mark-II.

We have a Dart-board with 8 equal sized areas on it.
If we discharge our missile,say 10,000 times, we would hit each number 12.5% of the time.
If the 8 areas weren't of equal size then the larger sized areas would be struck a greater percentage of throws than the areas of smaller size.
If you can't understand that,then perhaps you may need to go and join Doctor Pangloss at the other Forum.

Now we get rid of the dartboard and replace it with a greyhound race with 8 competitors.
If this race with those 8 competitors was rerun 10,000 times,it is unlikely that each greyhound would win 12.5% of the races.
The goal we are seeking is to find what share of those 10,000 races each greyhound will win.Then we can convert those percentages into prices and have a deadly accurate set of prices to use for the 10,001th race.

Let's suppose some Scientists or Geologists,(Good-day Punter57),actually conducted this experiment of 10,000 races,and recorded the results on a top secret document.

Here is the document.It turned up in my email box this morning.

1. 12.5%
2. 12.5%
3. 12.5%
4. 12.5%
5. 12.5%
6. 12.5%
7. 12.5%
8. 12.5%

LOOK FAMILIAR?
Yes it's our dartboard.Those scientists were playing darts!

We know those results ain't greyhound races because,even though we have never seen 10,000 races rerun, races won't look like that.
The percentage wins of races are decided by things called Factors.
And the various Factors contribute to percentages by varying degrees.
We need to establish what these Factors are, and then establish the importance of each Factor.
The way to find out some of these factors are to watch races and see what takes place.
I used to believe the biggest single factor is that the dog that wins the race is usually the dog that can run that distance in the quickest time.
Well playing around with ratings has given me second thoughts.
Probably the biggest factor is the dog that can lead will win a large proportion of the races.And the dog that can begin in the first 2 will win a large share.
Racing style is another.

If you are out there ROCKSTEADY,take notice.I'M SORRY!

PEOPLE!
I am going to videotape Greyhound races.
I am going to watch what the winning greyhounds did and what the losing greyhounds didn't do.
I am coming back to let you all know.

Looks like I've been given the ****.
Gotta give yourselves credit for that.
Can I tell you something?
I was at the tote tonight and I looked at the formguide for races 8,9,10 and 11.
I looked at a thing called position in running.
It shows where a dog was positioned during the race.
I didn't go through any sort of rating or market framing exercise.
But I did use it to try and position where the field might finish.
The run through tells how a dog began,whether it weakened or ran on or just plodded.
Well compared to my computerised deadly ratings,it just leaves it for dead.
Race 8 I picked the winner although it was odds-on.
Also had the second and third as fair chances.But so did most punters.
But the thing is,that with very little mathematics,the result was approximately what I predicted.
Race 9 had the winner in my top 2 but didn't fancy the 2nd dog but the 3rd was the other of my top 2.
Race 10 thought the winner was a place chance,didn't like the 2nd dog,and I can't remember who ran third.Maybe I gave it a winning chance.Anyway a poor result.
Race 11.Had the winner in my only 3 chances,didn't like the 2nd dog and the 3rd dog was also in my top 3.
So there you go!
Now I will study the dogs using this part of the formguide as my number one step.
I'll put my tips up for Ballarat quaddie races and for Warrnambool.
Still might have a go at videotaping races.
I have access to the races and a vcr with a timer so maybe...one day in the near future...
BIG KEV...If you're up there...I'M EXCITED!!!

Morning Moeee. I would never bet on Greyhounds unless I could discover a certain MATHEMATICAL way of beating them. The reason is pretty simple; for far too many owners/trainers the "dogs" is a hobby. Many are amateurs giving their pets a night out after the pets have given them (the owners/trainers**** an excuse to go for a walk every morning, to get away from the missus, to have a drink with their mates at the track etc etc. In other words they are NOT serious.This is not BAD in itself but as they are not motivated enough for me to risk my dough on them and their mutts, I'll pass. As was pointed out in a very fine song one time (not about Greyhound Racing!!!**** "whether he won or whether he lost; to him it was always the same". For me it ISN'T!!! Still, I always enjoy your postings, Moeee as it's clear you read OTHER'S postings closely. good on ya and good punting!!!

Stuff the calculations.I got brains.Ain't no computer ever built that can outperform the human brain.Just interpret the information that needs interpretting and away we go.The prices are what I suggest as being the TRUE ODDS.

Sandown Greyhounds.

Race 1
1. Slow beginner and hopeless as well 1%
2. Yet to race.Not today 1%
3. Has had 3 runs.Heaps better than the above 19%
4. Better chance of leading than the white 35%
5. Slow beginner continually gets spanked 5%
6. Moderate beginner could get close at the finish 13%
7. Will get home but the bird would have flown 25%
8. Same chance as the inside boxes.NONE! 1%

No.4 @ $2.90
No.7 @ $4
No.3 @ $5.20

Race 2
1. Begins alright but don't really want to chew the bunny 10
2. Will go past the toppy at about the home turn 28
3. And this ************ will come over the top of both of 'em 38
4.
5. Just a dog making up the numbers at the rear 2
6. perhaps a chance of finishing third.NAH! 4
7. Begins okay so must have a place chance 11
8. They say it's suited out here 7

No. 3 @ $2.60
No. 2 @ $3.60

Race 3
1. No way 1
2. Probable leader 5
3. Will account for the check with ease 12
4. If can avoid the tiring runners can run second 22
5. Maybe can catch the bus with the red 1
6. Leaders stopping so quickly this one will appear as Tulloch 51
7. Making up the numbers 3
8. So is this 5

No. 6 @ $2
No. 4 @ $4.50

Race 4
1. Chance of leading from here 15
2. First starter.Unknown quantity 1
3. Place chance 4
4. Could get on the bunny against these 33
5. Making up the numbers 2
6. Better than yellow worse than white 3
7. Had it drawn inside would be odds on 41
8. No Phar Lap here 2

No. 7 @ $2.40
No. 4 @ $3

Race 5
1. Almost certain leader 36
2. Quick beginner outside another quick beginner 23
3. Reserve comes out of here with no chance 1
4. Another quick beginner of a whole group 8
5. My goodness what a lot of speed to the 1st turn 7
6. Getting very messy out here 5
7. And the speedsters keep on coming 6
8. Because the guide says it's a wide runner 14

No. 1 @ $2.80
No. 2 @ $4.30

Race 6
1. Will be in the finish 11
2. Can see this one avoiding any trouble 17
3. Looks like the leader 32
4. Could get messy soon after the start 14
5. No way 1
6. The yellows twin 1
7. Might be the smokey out here 18
8. Expect to get too far back 6

No. 3 @ $3.10
No. 8 @ $5.50

That should be enough to see whether this type of study needs to go in the wheelie bin.
They certainly are an ordinary lot of greyhounds going around today.

Did find a big change to prices can occur when you check the scratchings.
If a quick beginner is replaced by a slow beginner,or not replaced at all,leaving a vacant box.
There will be a change to the expectations to the greyhounds on either side of the scratching.

Yes I know there's no point now except to show off how I did manage to make a profit.

Ballarat Greyhound quaddie races.

Race 5
1. JEFF'S SUB - Nothing in the form says he has a chance 1
2. ANOTHER WHISKY - beaten by a good one last time 13
3. PATH TO POWER - Got the runs on the board 28
4. INNER SPEED - Won't get around white.They may bump 14
5. SUPERMAN - bad box draw for him 11
6. PASSED HISTORY - His name says it all 1
7. JA JA - Must have a top chance of leading 20
8. LARUE - Better than most of these 12

SUGGESTION - Trifecta 3,7/3,4,7/2,3,4,7,8 Cost $8

Race 6.
1. ROCK COOL DADDY - Doesn't win a high proportion 10
2. SENNI WENDY - High strike rate but just a dog really 14
3. RUSERIOUS - Best beginner of those drawn inside 22
4. BONGOOLA DREAM - Hate dogs with erratic form 4
5. SIGN HERE - Not as good as some of these 11
6. VACANT BOX
7. KID PACINO - Much preferred from inside 8
8. EKALA MAN - Should overpower these 31

SUGGESTION - RUSERIOUS $5 Eachway

Race 7.
1. BOMBASTIC STORM - Won't lead 7
2. DUTCH DEAL - Killin' 'em at the minute 11
3. PYRENEES REGION - Not for me 3
4. ONE FOUR NUN - The reserve,NO 1
5. UPON A STAR - Here's our leader 23
6. BAKAROMA - But possibly here is our winner 14
7. Won't get around 15
8. Ballarat specialist 31

Suggestion No. 8 $15 Win

Probably just an abberation, or maybe not!!! But your handicapping on 14/12/05 must have done something right. If you boxed your top three dogs (not just your final selections) in a trifecta you would have hit 3 out of 6 (50% SR) and,according to WA TAB, would have returned $168.60 from $36 outlay, say 368% POT. I look forward to today's exciting instalment.

Don't throw it in the wheelie bin yet.

On that basis, my variation to your selections at Ballarat for today would have been:

Race 5 - Box 3,7,4
Race 6 - Box 8,3,2
Race 7 - Box 8,5,7

Best of luck.

Boy, was I confused. I should have checked the race card first. I didn't realise we were looking at history. Blew my observation out of the water though.

Hi Ayseedeesee!Thanks for the input,the faith and the idea.

Meadows Greyhounds Saturday night.

Race 5.
1. Triple Trio - Good stayer who comes home like a train 24
2. Linus - Couple of wins at Sale don't compare with city form 11
3. Camzaman - Bit better than the white 14
4. Ashlee Rhode - Runs okay without winning 9
5. Aaron's Vialie - Not here 1
6. Kinzaleigh - Runs well in its class but not against these 7
7. Walk My Way - Being the leader may allow it to pinch it 18
8. She's All In - Possibly get home for 2nd or 3rd 16

I'm doing this
1/3,7,8/2,3,4,7,8 - Cost $6
7/1,8/1,3,8 - Cost $2

Race 6.
1. Kirabilli Tiger - As good a chance as most 9
2. Sue Jane - Am considering it and the red to have a bumping duel 9
3. Mia Emma - With a clear run will figure in finish 7
4. Lygon Street - Rarely misses a place over this trip 14
5. Sign Here - Average dog you really have to put in your tips 11
6. Bundy Bill - One start for one win you gotta respect the trainer 17
7. Billy La Plume - Gets too far back 8
8. Bot Flyer - Unexpectadely pinged out last time.Can repeat 24

I'm doing this
8/4,6/4,5,6 Cost $2
Box 4,6,8 Cost $3

Race 7.
1. Dyna Caitlan - You gotta love a quick beginner from the cherry 12
2. Poetic Magic - And you gotta hate when the check is just as quick 11
3. Mystical Bree - And when the white is quick,who do you turn to? 10
4. Slamm - And the blue?.This trifecta will pay well. 10
5. September Glory - Box five ain't the place to be in this one 6
6. Wongawillisue - Here is your xmas present fans..NOT 23
7. Just Cool - Will get too far back 5
8. Leica - Just when you think you got the winner.23

I'm doing this
6,8/1,2,6,8/1,2,3,4,6,8 Cost $8

Race 8.
1. Majestic Flex - They reckon Dailly gets the worst of the Flex's 7
2. Curly Eno - Once in a row is a fluke,twice? he's hot! 14
3. Trew Touch - You think it's safe to collect,this'n flashes up 19
4. Billane Boy - Loves running third 7
5. General Deano - Not on it's last effort 8
6. Sisco Chick - Ordinary record here..NO! 3
7. Docker Dessie - Very hard to catch on his night 23
8. Barwidgee John - Killin' 'em at the minute 17

I'm doing this
3,7/2,3,7,8/2,3,7,8 Cost $6

Plus a Quaddie 1,7/8/6,8/3,7 Cost $4

Plus $6 Each/way Docker Dessie.

So that's $43.

Some scratchings caused these new bets

Meadows Greyhounds Saturday night.

Race 5.
9. Cyclone Entity - I don't know 4
2. Linus - Couple of wins at Sale don't compare with city form 12
3. Camzaman - Bit better than the white 16
4. Ashlee Rhode - Runs okay without winning 10
5. Aaron's Vialie - Not here 1
10. Rustic River - 3 unplaced runs here 20
7. Walk My Way - Being the leader may allow it to pinch it 20
8. She's All In - Possibly get home for 2nd or 3rd 18

I'm doing this
7,10/7,8,10/2,3,7,8,10 - Cost $6
Box 7,8,10 Cost $3

Plus a Quaddie 7,3,8,10/8/6,8/3,7 Cost $8


So that's $47.

Hi moeee, just a few questions here. In race 6 you rate n1 as as good as chance of any yet u leave it out of your tri. What is the reason for this? To keep the cost down or just gut feeling that it wouldnt be up there? In race 7 how do u figure just cool will get too far back? Off the top of my head i think she has been right up there at the finish and has been a lil unlucky in previous runs. In race 8 who is they that reckon dailly gets the worst of the flex dogs?

I dont mean for this post to sound like im having a go at you in any way im just interested in the way you come to your conclusions. Ill nick off and have a look at the results now and see how last night went. Hope you had a winner but looking at ur tips im not overly confident of a return.

Good Punting!!!