OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#31

17th February 2006, 02:03 PM

Tubby

Member

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 152

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stix

Boxed Quinellas would certainly improve my strike rate which is currently 12.6% to about 28%, but would sacrifice divy return I reckon....... However the av. Div of $69.9 makes up for that and 205% POT soothes any residual worries

They are nice figures.

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#32

17th February 2006, 02:24 PM

Sportz

Member

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 11,973

Well RD, you managed to get what will probably be the 2 smallest trifectas all day!!! Always the danger in such small fields.

#33

17th February 2006, 02:29 PM

Real Deal

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 550

thats the risk i am willing to take. Today only helped the strike rate. hehe.

#34

17th February 2006, 05:32 PM

Real Deal

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 550

Quote:

Originally Posted by Real Deal

Just 2 today at Flemington.

Race 1 Number 1 Flame of sydney

$20 for $1 unit

Race 2 Number 2 Anais

$20 for $1 unit.

Betting a full unit today due to field sizes.

Outlay $61
Return $24.80
Strike rate: 2/3

Still early days. After a couple more races i will start to post percentages.

#35

17th February 2006, 11:15 PM

Mr ed

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: melbourne

Posts: 721

I've tried this one heaps of times, even started doing it with the first four whilst i was in Darwin, you get the occasional great result but over all it ended up winning more by just backing the horse to win. If you can get a 50% win strike rate and then find the best odds possible for your investment, surely you should make a profit. Also don't like the mug money aspect some horses simply can't fill a place, like Zenno Goshu tomorow in the Aus Stakes, it costs you an extra $110 with him in and $90 without him, surely he is not worth your hard earned $20.

Good luck Real Deal hope you snag some monster tri's.

#36

18th February 2006, 08:41 AM

the freek

Member

Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 43

Stix, are you standing out your top selection to win in the Exacta's or do you also take it to run 2nd ?

#37

18th February 2006, 08:51 AM

Real Deal

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 550

Guys I am taking ebverything on board but i just want to see this one through for a little bit and hopefully prove over some time that it can be profitable.

Todays Bets.

Syd R1 #2 Crums
Cost $21 for 50c

Syd R4 #2 Pizza
Cost $21 for 50c

Syd R5 #3 Collate
Cost $36 for 50c

Melb R5 #1 Demerger
Cost $28 for 50c

Total Outlay today: $106

#38

18th February 2006, 04:30 PM

luv2bet

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 939

Good stuff real, showing a profit today.

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get in the Q

#39

18th February 2006, 04:43 PM

marcus25

Member

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 172

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stix

Surely a strike rate of around 30% would produce a profit... maybe Marcus's analysis will prove this to be true or otherwise.

Sorry to disappoint you Stix, I ran the whole gamut of combinations ie. first fav. with the field sec. fav with the field etc. combined with starting prices and number of runners, (like less than $2 and less than 7 runners etc.) and the result is: as I expected, UTTER disaster.
If it only were so easy??
I am sorry but nothing beats rating!
My opinion only of course, so no debate here.
Good luck all.

#40

18th February 2006, 05:12 PM

Real Deal

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 550

Quote:

Originally Posted by Real Deal

Today's results

Crums WINNER but loser.
Cost 21 returned $4.85

Collate WINNER
cost 21 Returned $151.95

Today outlay $106
Today return $156.80

Total Outlay $167
Total Return $181.60
Strike Rate 4/7

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