What is going on here?Vinnie Roe may be an exceptional horse,but he is an exceptional horse overseas,he is yet to prove himself here!!The same goes for the other imports!!They will all be running without my money.I will include some in my trifectas,but that's it for me.It won't make any difference which import you back,because all the media hype will ensure that not one of them will be value anyway!I agree with Equine Investor,so many things can and do change in the week leading up to the race.I always go with Bart Cummings line of thought,the winner of the Melbourne Cup will go around the Saturday before so come Tuesday it is rockhard fit.So that let's Vinnie Roe out!I note that Rain Gauge has had an almost identical prep this time as last year when he ran sixth,not beaten all that far.He is now a 5year old,and they have an excellent record in this race.The best contenders from the Caulfield Cup,(my opinion only,given the first 3 aren't running)Distinctly Secret,(great 4th)Rain Gauge(made up lots of ground)and the import,Beekeeper,also made up good ground.Distinctly could well be the forgotten horse here,and I believe he will be way overs,because of the weight of money for the imports.Cheers

Goldophin must agree with Bart's theory running Hatha Anna in the MacKinnon. Don't forget this horse. He won at Flemington this time last year (Queen Elizabeth Stakes G2)after being balloted out of the Cup. He is the least talked about of the Goldophins, and only hope they put an experienced Ossie rider on him, which I'm sure they will. McEvoy would be good.

For value I have taken juicy odds of Grey Song e/w at 50-1.

Good luck to all

Cheers
Cosmo

Weather prediction suggests we might need to look at those with good form on dead or worse track.

Those in Melbourne, how does it look?

Courtesy aapracingandsports

Thursday, 31 October 2002:


Melbourne Cup favourite Vinnie Roe has hit a major hurdle in his preparation for Tuesday's race forcing trainer Dermot Weld to revise plans for the Irish champion.

Weld had planned to ship Vinnie Roe to Flemington tomorrow for a vital gallop.

But within hours of arriving in Melbourne on Thursday, Weld cancelled the trip.

Instead he will keep Vinnie Roe at his Sandown base and will spend the weekend in a last-ditch attempt to get him right for the Cup.

The trainer, who had not been expected in Melbourne until Sunday, flew in from Dublin this morning and immediately went to the Sandown quarantine stables where the horse has spent the past four weeks.

"I have to say that I'm concerned about him," Weld said after inspecting Vinnie Roe.

"He didn't travel well and he hasn't really picked up as I would have liked him to.

"He didn't look himself, he was dull in the coat and just not right."

The setback has left Weld, who is recognised as one of the world's most astute trainers, with only four days to turn things around.

He said he had planned to ship Vinnie Roe, a horse he described as the best he has trained since his 1993 Melbourne Cup winner Vintage Crop, to Flemington tomorrow for a gallop he had hoped would shed a lot of light on his Cup prospects.

But Vinnie Roe will now have have a more conservative workout at Sandown.

The warning signs have been up for Vinnie Roe almost from the day he arrived and Weld has been on record saying he wasn't happy with the horse's progress.

But the concerns seemed to ease after the horse completed what appeared to an impressive gallop at Flemington on Tuesday.

Vinnie Roe was timed to break 36 seconds for the final 600m of the 1600m workout and appeared to pull up well.

After a quiet day, he emerged at Sandown with race jockey Pat Smullen in the saddle for a piece of work that only added to the air of mystery surrounding the horse.

Rather than test Vinnie Roe in a serious gallop, Smullen hardly had him out of a canter and the pair left the track after completing one casual lap.

By contrast, Media Puzzle, a brilliant winner of last week's Geelong Cup, pushed on for a second circuit, finishing his work off in dashing style.

"I couldn't be happier with Media Puzzle, it's just a case of one horse travelling well and one who hasn't," Weld said.

"But it would be fair to say we've had to nurse Vinnie along a bit."

While Weld's concerns are bound to cause bookmakers to reconsider their Cup markets, they are also likely to treat the situation with a certain amount of caution.

Before Vintage Crop's momentous win nine years ago, Weld had taken a similar conservative line saying the horse had travelled badly and had failed to regain weight lost on the trip.

Vintage Crop duly galloped to one of the more impressive Cup wins of recent times.

Among the other international Cup hopes, Beekeeper was the star of track session.

The Godolphin runner has improved dramatically in condition since running sixth in the Caulfield Cup and trainer Saeed bin Suroor has been singing the horse's praises since arriving here on Tuesday.

__________________
Ta me go maith

Prices at: 19:08:08, 2 Nov 2002

No. Selection Win Place
014 Media Puzzle $5.00 $2.00
001 Vinnie Roe $6.50 $2.35
020 Distinctly Secret $7.50 $2.60
009 Pugin $8.00 $2.75
011 Beekeeper $10.00 $3.25
010 Rain Gauge $12.00 $3.75
023 Miss Meliss $17.00 $5.00
016 Pentastic $19.00 $5.50
002 Jardine's Lookout $21.00 $6.00
024 Requiem $21.00 $6.00
005 Helene Vitality $34.00 $9.25
006 Hatha Anna $34.00 $9.25
003 Daliapour $41.00 $11.00
017 Prized Gem $41.00 $11.00
019 Cyclades $41.00 $11.00
012 County Tyrone $51.00 $13.50
013 Hail $51.00 $13.50
015 Mr. Prudent $51.00 $13.50
018 Victory Smile $51.00 $13.50
021 Grey Song $51.00 $13.50
022 Thong Classic $51.00 $13.50
004 Sandmason $61.00 $16.00
007 Freemason $81.00 $21.00
008 Maguire $81.00 $21.00

Final Field

1 Vinnie Roe(IRE) 7 Dermot Weld Patrick Smullen 59
2 Jardines Lookout(IRE) 19 Alan Jarvis Patrick Payne 56
3 Daliapour(IRE) 1 Michael Stoute Michael Kinane 55.5
4 Sandmason(GB) 13 Tony McEvoy Steven Arnold 55.5
5 Helene Vitality(NZ) 17 David Hayes Gerald Mosse 54.5
6 Hatha Anna(IRE) 22 Saeed Bin Suroor Richard Hills 54
7 Freemason 11 John Hawkes Darren Gauci 53.5
8 Maguire(NZ) 8 Jon Collins Danny Nikolic 53.5
9 Pugin(IRE) 15 Saeed Bin Suroor Frankie Dettori 53.5
10 Rain Gauge 14 George Hanlon Greg Childs 53.5
11 Beekeeper(GB) 20 Saeed Bin Suroor Kerrin McEvoy 53
12 County Tyrone 9 Max Lees Jim Cassidy 52.5
13 Hail(NZ) 16 Bruce Marsh Noel Harris 52.5
14 Media Puzzle(USA) 3 Dermot Weld Damien Oliver 52.5
15 Mr. Prudent 4 George Hanlon Corey Brown 52
16 Pentastic 6 David Hall Glen Boss 52
17 Prized Gem(NZ) 24 Murray Baker Michael Rodd 52
18 Victory Smile(NZ) 2 Donna Logan Danny Beasley 52
19 Cyclades(NZ) 5 Cydne Evans Scott Seamer 51.5
20 Distinctly Secret(NZ) 18 Mark Walker Steven King 51.5
21 Grey Song 23 Tommy Hughes Chris Munce 51
22 Thong Classic 21 Pat Carey Brett Prebble 51
23 Miss Meliss(NZ) 10 Bart Cummings Craig Newitt 49
24 Requiem 12 Tony McEvoy Craig Williams 49

My picks -

Media Puzzle
Pugin
Distinctly Secret

(I'd only include Vinnie Roe if we get significant rain I.E. - track slow or worse).

Still like the chances of Vinnie Roe & Media Puzzle (both picked back in mid September) although have some doubts about VR's preparation and feel MP may be found wanting in last little bit.

Will now also include Cyclades, a 2 mile winner in NZ who ran a bottler of a race in yesterday's Saab Quality, running on well & drops 4kg and has services of Scott Seamer.

If I think Cyclades has a chance would also have to include Maguire at big odds, narrowly beat Cyclades in the Auckland Cup & meets Cyclades 2kg better. Interestingly, Scott Seamer rode Maguire in that race.

Maguire scratched - now include Prized Gem in the first 4.

:grin: There was a power failure in a Dublin department store. Thousands of shoppers were stranded on the escalators for hours.

:lol:

"Your glass is empty Paddy, will you be having another?"

"And why would I be wanting two empty glasses?" replied Paddy.

:lol:

PADDY: "Hey Shaun, what's Mick's surname?"
Shaun: "Mick who?"

:lol:

PADDY: "If you can guess how many chooks I have in this bag you can have both of them."
"Three?" suggested Shaun.

:lol:

_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!



[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2002-11-05 09:40 ]

With the final field, weights and barriers sorted out it's time for serious form study. I know some of our forum members can accurately highlight the most likely winners months ahead of the race, and have the courage to back them at higher early prices.

Much has been said about the top 6 horses in the market. As most winners come from that group it's understandable.

Another factor that crops up very regularly is a last winner. Similar to EI's 7day plan. In the cup it goes back to Caulfield Cup day (upto 17 days). Based on this factor we have Media Puzzle, Thong Classic & Requiem. Vinnie Roe's win was too long ago to count. Put the betting market and last start win together we get Media Puzzle.

If Greg Childs was riding Requiem I would of put him down as a serious pick on a good track only. Thong Classic keeps Brett Preble so I place this horse a my serious pick on any track. Currently at 50/1 reasonable value especialy for e/w.

Thats my thoughts and I have put my money on Thong Classic even though Media Puzzle has everything going for him to win. Form, fitness and D. Oliver.