Just for you, I got $500 a place on Randwick race 7 number 3 COME ON CUGAT

Hope thats winnings from your Xavier bet in the 1st << King Cugat sired.
or a bit from Spanish Kings place at Newcastle just before << King Cugat
The 1/2 brother to my 2yo Cugat is racing soon in Sandown >> Passing Salute

A Tip for Tuesday

Muswellbrook
Race: 6 n: 8 Fillatte

Good Luck

I have no doubt that as a 80% market driven 20% stat man for all this time i cant get my head around doing it the other way. I cant post bets on stats alone & succeed without the betting ring having a say. Other can i cant. That last race had Carnegie Prince get backed in from $4 > $2 in the ring. What stats can compete with that? Nobody in their right mind would bet AGAINST a fluc like that. Even Carnegie Prince came up a a bet on my own system.
SO there it is this trial system is being put to bed. It confirms my theory, to myself, that the market is a better indicator then the stats. Some stats i couldnt do without but there is a limit of just how many are a positive factor ....for me.

No argument from me. The stats only tell us what we know, the market tell's us what we don't know.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

100% Pixie 100% I like that quote >> a keeper. what i know but summed up nicely.

If i had the best stat man in the world standing next to me in the ring with a good thing, & on the otherside a bookie rolling a horse in from say...$3 > $2. i wouldnt even ask the stat man who he was refering to.
The $3 > $2.... the stats are somewhere in there anyway but so too is the trainers opinion, morning blood test, track work, fitness and all the things we just dont see in the form guide. So happens the things we dont see in stats are the important things.

I just find most of the time that the best backed runner never wins.

That sounds like a recipe for success in laying then!

never?

If you take them all, the strike rate of them winning compared to odds would have you losing. The strike rate of them all placing compared to odds would have you losing. Its the ones you learn to not take that leave you with the margin.

How do you know which ones to leave alone?

The ones that halves its price inside the last 15mins are the ones worth backing right?