Crash I have a feeling that Hot Danish won't be very far off the lead in this race there isn't alot of natural speed there in the race and if she jumps nicely I can see her being in the 1st 3 or 4 if the fence is off they'll is be getting off there anyway so Clark will be able to get her off the no worries, so many times when the fence is off the races are won by the horses saving ground on the corner and getting out wider in the straight.

I have had alot of people telling me that Hot Danish's form is far inferior to Forensics and IMO this is nothing short of garbage. the horse I am using to try and match them up is a horse that raced fairly well against both horses in Like Me Wild, Like Me Wild finished a nose behind Hot Danish on a dead track in which Hot Danish carried 59kgs in and Like Me Wild carried 53kgs.

In Like Me Wild's next start she ran 4th or 5th (not sure now) beaten 2.5 lengths by Forensics however on this occasion Like Me Wild was carrying 56.5kgs and Forensics carrying 54kgs. so in lining this up I know it is hard but this is as good as I can do it as I feel Like Me Wild performed on both outings alot of the others in the race at Canterbury just did not handle the track at all, There is an 8.5kgs swing for about a 2.4 length margin say what you like I know weights don't always mean everything but on that atleast I feel Hot Danish's form is every bit as good as Forensics.

On a heavy track I'm not keen on Forensics [no form], but I reckon he's the best horse in the race. If he wins this we have 2 top 3yrs old now. Weekend Hussler and Forensics with Tuesday's Joy our top stayer.

I am going to give my thoughts on each runner here working with a rating sitting somewhere around a Heavy 9 as I can't see how it will be better than that

1. Mentallity: He's a quality horse but I am really not sold on the fact he is going anywhere near as good as he was last year when he should have nearly won the race, the Heavy track is no help at all to him either so I have to say although I do have a good opinion of the horse I can't have him here at all especially with 57.5kgs on his back.

2 Sniper's Bullet: Last years straddie winner who IMO will struggle to run out the mile he has had 2 starts at the distance one in which Mentallity gave him wind burn as he went past him and the other when beaten half a length by Casino Prince, he had the cushiest of runs on both occasions and is drawn not to get those favours this time once again I am leaving him out of my picks for the main reason I truly don't feel he is going to get a run easy enough for him to run thr trip out.

3. Casino Prince: Alot of people seem to be warming to this bloke and while I concede he has some chance he is a horse I have trouble backing these days, he has won 2 of his last 10 or so races and although they have been at a high level I question that he is truly top notch, I know he won the Chipping Norton but I'd have been more disappointed with him if he didn't get home over Sniper's Bullet at the trip, I question the Chipping Norton Form I know Tuesday's Joy ran 2nd and has won 2 GR1s since but she isnot a miler and wasnot beaten far in that event, he is weighted fairly well I question him on the surface however some will include him I won't be it may cost me but i'll take my chances there.

4. German Chocolate: Hard to give a wrap here doesn't like the wet and was thrashed last start and I doubt he runs the trip out either no!

5. Megatic: Good quality WA youngster who comes in with a set back for that reason and the wet track and the fact he is badly weighted I can't have him.

6. Eskimo Queen: Good quality mare that has burned me so many times and never ever rewarded, she'll run the trip out and she'll handle the conditions without a concern very good jockey on board as well, she is one of the main contenders.

7. Marching: I am surprised he is running in this can't have him at all

8. Valedictum: he is a good old horse without any weight on his back likes the trip and the wet won't concern I can't see him winning however is a place chance though.

9. All Silent: I have a big opinion of this bloke he is the fresh horse coming from nowhere here and it might be 12 months to early for him he is a 4yo though so maybe being lightly raced might have helped him so far, Robl on board doesn't hurt his chances he rode him in his 1st 3 race starts so you would think that he would know the horse pretty well, he looks asthough the wet track won't worry him but you don't know till they get on one of these, he is one of the major contenders here IMO to much raw ability to leave out.

10. Falaise: Going in solid form but I don't think he is good enough at all to be considered here maybe a very very rough place hope.

11. Friday Creek: I doubt the track conditions suit and I really doubt he will run out the mile good luck if your backing him but he has been ridden a treat his last few and simply couldn't get there.

12. Just Mambo: No Hope IMO.

13. Molotov: Real surprised to see him here no hope

14. Forensics: Top quality youngster who is on a tear here at the moment the wet track is the real big wuery here the Flying Spur breed usually handle it a bit but the Dehere side of the dam has to put real big question marks on it may even be a slight query at the mile on a big track not sure, on a drier track she is one of the top selections but on this track with that barrier she will be pretty much coming from last and I feel that is going to be a huge feat to accomplish in those conditions tomorrow I am reluctantly leaving her out.

15. Gallant Tess: Finally drew a gate here she has a master jockey onboard who can really get that bit extra out of his horses for mine the biggest query is how much last week flattened her she had a tough tough run on heavy track and is backing up in 7 days for the 1st time otuside of that I have her included in my thoughts as I feel she'll handle the ground. I am undecided yet whether to include her in my quaddie or not, if you like her have something on her Lloyd will give you every chance.

16. Hot Danish: She draws a beatutiful gate (maybe) and drops a stack in weight from a gutsy performance last week where I would be shocked if she might of needed the run a bit (she was nearly a month between runs) Tim Clark maynot have the big race experience of alot of the other jockeys but he knows this horse better than anyone and he has had a group 1 victory just a few weeks ago which is always a weight off the mind. In my mind and I have thought this for awhile she is the one they all have to beat just to well weighted here not to like her chances especially when you consider she has carried 57kgs, 59kgs & 57kgs in her 3 runs this prep she won't know herself with 52.5kgs.

17. Pinnacles: I can't have him no good enough IMO.

18. Theseo: Once again another who I feel just isn't quite upto the mark but he like Pinnacles atleast might get through the ground.

19. Serious Speed: She is a good quality horse but I feel she has only beaten so solid ones getting here especially in Murtajill, she got the gun run last start won't get it this time by the looks Newitt will have to be at his absolute best to pull this off, Have no idea if she will handle the conditions she'll be in my quaddie I won't be backing her

20. Triple Honour: I still can't believe he lost to Weekend Hussler there a few weeks ago, his last run was ok and is drawn well here with a nice weight drop and will get a good ride from a bloke who would have to be one of the luckiest ******s alive when it comes to these races, I have a lingering doubt on this horse whether it is justified or not I have no idea but I amnot sure he is good enough to win this or not as I feel he should have hung on to win against Weekend Hussler in the Guineas obviously there is nothing at all wrong with that form but I have a doubt there and it won't go away. I will have him in my quaddy but I doubt I'll back him at all.

of the emergencies I could give place chances to God's Hand and Fighting Fund but nothing more than that.

This is my order and probably what I will box up for a percentage of a trifecta tomorrow

1. Hot Danish
2. Eskimo Queen
3. All Silent
4. Triple Honour
5. Gallant Tess
6. Serious Speed

We agree on a few things Raw i have Hot Danish on top
My speed map (which took me ages) has Just Mambo and Theseo going forward and leading ,,Menatlity / Friday Creek and even Marching pressing on..
Hot Danish from the inside should box seat,,,,She jumps well and can take advantage of the good barrier..I have Gallant tess trialing up behind her on the fence...Casino Prince looks to be maybe a couple back one out and this looks ideal..
Mentality / Snipers Bullet and Forensics look in danger of being trapped wide ...
Serious Speed and All Silent will be a mile back and will have to go wide ,,my guess is they wont and will look for gaps through the big field...(will need luck)

Hot Danish** Gets the gun run , good drop in weight and i think is a better horse ridden with a sit..

Casino Prince**great lead up form and seems to get through the ground,,again should get a nice run and treated well at the weights..

Gallant Tess** brave run last start ,,backs up well and again gets the good run...like the jock and will get everything out of her..

Snipers Bullet* I have no worries about distance,,needed the run last start and is ok in the wet,,,might be alittle wide if they ride him agressively but should still have cover..i like the jockey change..

Serious Speed*horse is classy and can run the distance,,,looked strong the other day but will need alot of luck but Froggy loves diving inbetween horses and this little filly will respond to this...

All Silent*ran down a couple that i think are suss over 1400m last start but still did a huge job,,,will need luck but with the speed on he'll be flying late ..

Mentality,,already have something on but the track is a worry..(miracle ??)
Eskimo Queen,,,she might be back and on the inside ,,,not keen
German Choco,,,the wet track rules him out,,hope he comes to the straddie
Megatic,,,no
Marching,,,not hopeless ,,but this race is an after thought..
Valedictum,,,he'll be real wide and the track might be best out there..place
Falaise,,,distance ?
Friday Creek,,,Distance ?? (straddie suits better)
Just Mambo,,,should lead and a great chance in the 1st4..
Molotov ,,,to wet for him...whats he doing anyway ?? send him up here
Forensics ,,will be back and wide,,going well ,,,,place
Pinnacles,,,mile back and will need a heap of luck,,,going well ..1s4's ?
Triple Honour,,,forget last run,,chance with a jock that will settle him..

Trifecta
3,15,16 / 2,9,19 / 1,8,14,20

Good lcuk all

Casino Prince a certainty beaten. and doesnt my pocket feel lighter

I didn't lose much on the race luckily i secured the good oods on the horses i liked much earlier but I must say I have never felt so disheatened by a horses effort in my life, Hot Danish was nothing short of woeful in that race she couldn't get out of her own way and to be honest on that performance yesterday for a horse with such a good record she'll be lucky to win another race.

All Silent wasn't a great run but I was always prepared to forgive him being so inexperienced.

very uninspiring.

Hot Danish did everything to plan,,exxept finish the race off,,,maybe the run with the big weight just flattened her the week before...
Casino Prince should have won ,,,(would have missed the tri anyway)
how good was pinnacles,,,Snipers Bullett was good also,,,
great race considering the state of the track,,,