Try Try Again,
Thank you.Most appreciated
Cheers
darky

As I understand it, you guys are proving that back-fitting results to characteristics is dumb. If that is the case, the two qualitifers today under Try's amended rules should have next to no chance:
Randwick R8 3
M/ville R6 1
Cheers

As I said in an earlier post the online systems creator DOES NOT take into account scratchings and hence fields of 8-14 are BEFORE scratchings so only qualifier today is Light Tan (Race 6#1 Adelaide).

Hi all,
I've been using a number of systems for some time now with reasonable success. All have had my hard earned on them, no point just backtesting, may as well throw in some cash as well.

Each one is based on logic that targets value. There are very few rules in each system, and I'm prepared to break the rules if I see something is obviously wrong, such as a selection is also identified as a potential 'lay" by another selection process.

Here is the results for one of them (with no subjectivity):

System 1: Targets first uppers from a spell or letup.

Selections = 315 (in 18 months)
Wins = 56 (17.78%)
Places = 107 (33.97%)
Win Return = $565 (unitab)
Place Return = $308.9 (unitab)
Win POT = 79.78%
Place POT = -1.94%

A few people have been talking about the "run of outs" and "risk of ruin". Very important stuff for any punter. You have to know what your strike rate is at all times. With this system it is low at just 17-18%. It's worst run out outs is 23, which statistically is under the maximum expected of 29 for 315 bets at 17.78% strike rate.

So I guess with this one it's outperforming at the moment and I could be in for a long run of outs. Maybe....

The rules:

1. Days since last run > 28
2. Starts on the track > 0
3. Last start Price < $4.00
4. Distance Place% > 0
5. Distance Win% = 0

Rule number 5 is the value creator. Yes, must never have won at the distance, but has run at the track and placed at the distance. My reasoning here is that so many punters rely of the "TDM" next to a horses name. It's prolific. So much so that these nags go around at over the odds.

One thing I have noticed with this system, is that it makes virtually no money from October through to February. It may be worth just jumping on these selections during the quieter months from April through to September. Interesting...