Thanks Sandgroper.
I looked at the breeding for some of the chances.
Bold Mirage surprised a few last start. His dam Mirramanda produced the 92 Cup winner Mirror Magic. He's sure to have a soft run on the fence not far off the lead.
Tumeric flashing runs last 2, has bar 3. His dad Old Spice needs no introduction. Had a brilliant daughter called Natasha and son Field Officer won the 93 Cup. Last prep. he was settling a little closer so maybe JClaite can sit midfield here.
Mr.Tambourineman bad barrier and needs to improve but dad Serheed has produced the 98 Cup winner Heed the Toll. (Another son, a hack called Northerly, had the breeding to run the Melbourne Cup distance.)
I'm not rapped in Time Signal, though proven at distance winning Brisbane Cup. This is a stronger field, he's had a 38day break and he's up 2.5kg net wise(over limit). Trainer keeps offing positive vibes though.
Alibi Bay flopped last year after good lead up form.
Exit Lane very interesting. At first 2400+ distance run last start ran on strongly. At the weights can't beat Bold Mirage but maybe it can run the supreme distance better?
Dananmatt ran on strongly last start and drops 7kg and though meets Bold Mirage slightly better will be giving him a decent start at the 800m.
9 races on, hoping a big crowd turns out.
Good luck all.

Courtesy The West Australian website:

ALAN MATHEWS does not see himself as a seer like Nostradamus, but a prediction he made three years ago could become reality tomorrow.

The man known as the cups king of WA will play another strong hand in the $350,000 BMW Perth Cup (3200m) when he saddles the two most favoured runners, Tumeric and Bold Mirage.

Three years ago, when he was enjoying the excitement of winning his fifth Perth Cup with Lottila Bay, Mathews was asked about his prospects of winning a sixth cup.

He fired back that he had a maiden running at Bunbury two days later who "could be my next cup winner".

The horse was Bold Mirage - a $27,500 yearling who was a half-brother to 1992 Perth Cup winner Mirror Magic.

"John Chalmers had bought Bold Mirage in New Zealand," Mathews recalled. "He goes to New Zealand to buy stayers - so I knew the horse would have that potential."

For part-owner Chalmers, history could repeat through Bold Mirage, who can emulate Chalmers' good mare Mirror Magic by winning the Cox Stakes-Perth Cup double in the same season.

Mathews won his first cup with Word Of Honour in 1990. Word Of Honour ran a close second to Zamlight 12 months later before Mathews won successive cups between 1992-94 with Mirror Magic, Field Officer and Palatious.

Lottila Bay was his oldest cup winner at 10 years in 2001 and stablemate Shoeless ran a brave third to Cardinal Colours in the last cup.

Lottila Bay joined Magistrate, who won in 1981 and 82, as the oldest horse to win the cup in its 116-year history.

Lottila Bay's cup win also signalled the re-emergence of Mathews' stable.

A drop in the number of owners - because horse racing became too unprofitable - meant increased competition for those who did survive.

And Mathews' fame as a Perth Cup-winning trainer had back-fired on him because many owners dismissed him in favour of trainers who could offer a faster return by churning out sprinters.

"The majority of horses coming into my stable are still stayers," Mathews said. "But it has been good to have success, too, with sprinters like Island Light."

Mathews counts himself lucky that Tumeric and Bold Mirage have had a faultless preparation leading up to the cup. He knows too well that one slight knock or cut in the wrong place or at the wrong time could sabotage months of planning and preparation.

"They worked very well on the main grass at Ascot on Saturday," he said. "They are fit and well.

"And they've drawn good barriers, which is a big help."

__________________
Ta me go maith

Thanks EI and red. Some interesting input there, red.

Would also be interested on how Higgins Gold stacks up on the pedigree side.

Note that Troy Jackman has been granted permission to ride Dananmatt 0.5kg over (will now carry 51.5kg) and Kevin Forrester has been granted permission to ride Fujiama 1.0kg over (will now carry 52.0kg)

Latest Betting Moves-

1 EXIT LANE 55 $12
2 ALIBI BAY 54 was $11 now $12
3 HONOR LAP 54 was $14 now $16
4 SO CANNY 54 was $23 now $31
5 TUMERIC 54 was $5 now $4.50
6 TIME SIGNAL 53.5 was $9 now $10
7 BOLD MIRAGE 52.5 was $6.50 now $7.00
8 MOONRISE 52 was $17 now $18
9 MR TAMBOURINEMAN 51.5 was $8 now $9
10 OUR ANNABEL 51.5 was $41 now $51
11 ZERO POINT 51.5 was $18 now $16
12 DANANMATT 51 was $11 now $9
13 DELA VENTOSA 51 was $151 now $81
14 FUJIAMA 51 was $81 now $51
15 HIGGINS GOLD 51 $12
16 PLAY THE WHISTLE 51 $31
17 SUPER MOSS 51 $41
18 TUARTS PRIDE 51 was $26 now $41
19 UNO JACK (1 Em) 51 was $201 now $251
20 GILLS DREAM (2 Em) 51 $251


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:



[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-12-31 14:22 ]

Sandgroper, couldn't find too much on Higgin's Gold. Great dam Vatilla won an Oaks and produced WA Derby winner Vortilla. So on breeding for 3200m is a query.
Bolter Moonrise ran 2nd in the race 2 years ago when also out of form.
Maybe there's a chance there will be a surprise leader(s). Some connections may want to replicate the Cardinal Colours feat of last year.
I hear it's going to be at least 33 celcius,
they'll be stocking up the Swan.
Let's have a great start to the new year.

Exit Lane appears to be good value at the $12.00 on offer. Has been thereabouts in last three starts without too much luck and would at least be worth a place or multiple ticket.

Bold Mirage appears to be one of the most consistent types lately and the major worry is the lack of tsting at the distance.

Tumeric appears to be poor value at the odds quoted, I would suggest that the TAB price will be significantly better at the jump.
Tumeric has the class advantage, given runs over recent quality races.

Exit Lane
Tumeric
Bold Mirage
Time Signal (for exotics or replacement for scratchings).

I’ve given it serious consideration (and given myself a headache to boot!)

Honor Lap (no. 3) for me. Been set for this race since she won both the Oaks & the Derby earlier this year, running on strongly on both occasions. I expect lovely EW odds.

Tumeric (no. 5) and Bold Mirage (no. 7) the hardest to beat. In form & well weighted.

Will also include Time Signal (no. 6), proven at the distance – most other runners are an unknown over the 3200m.

And a Happy New Year to all !!

I think the the Eastern seaborders are in this with a great chance.

Time Signal
Zero Point
Tumeric

A happy and safe New Years everybody.

I'll be back a bit later with my selections for the cup. Have to go and take a few painkillers first. Never thought I'd say it - but I think I had too much of the black stuff last night!

Courtesy The West Australian website:

YOUNG trainer Paul Miller had a shocking start to the New Year when his well fancied stayer Alibi Bay went lame and had to be scratched from today's $350,000 BMW Perth Cup (3200m).

Alibi Bay was found to have strained a tendon on his off fore-leg late yesterday afternoon and was immediately withdrawn from the race.

Alibi Bay, third in the Cox Stakes last start, was well fancied by punters at $10 on pre-post TAB Sportsbet fixed-odds markets.

Miller, at 25 the youngest trainer with a cup runner today, will now rely on revived stayer Super Moss ($31) to try to compensate for the loss of his star.

Jockey Jeff Noske is shooting for the stayers' grand slam when he rejoins tough galloper Exit Lane in the cup.

Noske is the reigning cups king, having won the Pinjarra and Bunbury cups on Exit Lane and the Coolgardie, Boulder and Kalgoorlie cups on Lawmaker.

No other rider has gone close to being so successful in those cups in a single year and a win today would cap an outstanding 12 months for the 37-year-old.

Noske encouraged trainer Megan Midgley to head Exit Lane towards the Perth Cup nine months ago, after winning the Bunbury Cup (2200m).

"He just relaxed so well," the jockey said. "You can put him to sleep in a race and wake him up when he needs to do something.

"The beauty of him is he can click up a gear and kick home strongly, something a lot of stayers can't do.

"He really looks like a stayer now. The weight has gone from his body and his ribs are showing.

"He is very fit."

Trainer Lindsey Smith knows Mr Tambourineman must overcome a horror draw (18) for the gelding to compensate for two near-misses in the cup in the past five years.

Smith's iron-tough stayer Old Cobber was runner-up to Heed The Toll in the 1998 cup and his super-staying filly Old Money had to be scratched from the 2001 cup, when hotly fancied to win.

"He mightn't be the greatest horse but he is mentally very tough," Smith said. "The cup was never on our plan this preparation but we shifted into it because he was staying so well.

"I thought his win in last Saturday's ATA Stakes was his best.

"I have been able to switch a few things about with him in his training and he is revitalised."

The scratching of Alibi Bay sparked a reshuffle of markets.

The Alan Mathews-trained pair Tumeric and Bold Mirage retained favouritism at $4.50 and $6 respectively. The TAB reported a bet of $2000 on Bold Mirage.

There was a late charge by punters on the cup's two raiders, Zero Point and Time Signal. A $2000 bet was laid on Zero Point to win $34,000 and another $2000 was bet on Time Signal to win $18,000.

Trainer Alan Mathews had the last word for punters when he said: "Both my horses are going great and I really think either could win.

"Bold Mirage has the ability to put a quick couple of lengths on them turning into the straight.

"They just need a bit of luck in running."

__________________
Ta me go maith

Poor Paddy! That will teach you :lol:

Thanks for your additional input red, we will just have to wait & see re Higgins Gold. Agree Moonrise could surprise at nice EW odds. Play The Whistle & Super Moss both like to lead, but are each prepared to take each other on?

Listening to the trainer of Time Signal / Zero Point this morning, seems Time Signal will race best with plenty of pace on. If this is not the case today, could it be that Zero Point might take an upfront position or even challenge for the lead, in an effort to ensure a true pace is on for the Cup – again we will have to wait and see what transpires.

Latest Betting Moves-

1 EXIT LANE 55 $12
2 ALIBI BAY 54 SCRATCHED
3 HONOR LAP 54 was $16 now $12
4 SO CANNY 54 $31
5 TUMERIC 54 was $5 now $4.50
6 TIME SIGNAL 53.5 was $10 now $11
7 BOLD MIRAGE 52.5 was $7.00 now $5.50
8 MOONRISE 52 was $18 now $31
9 MR TAMBOURINEMAN 51.5 was $9 now $10
10 OUR ANNABEL 51.5 was $51 now $71
11 ZERO POINT 51.5 $16
12 DANANMATT 51 was $9 now $10
13 DELA VENTOSA 51 $81
14 FUJIAMA 51 was $51 now $31
15 HIGGINS GOLD 51 was $12 now $13
16 PLAY THE WHISTLE 51 $31
17 SUPER MOSS 51 was $41 now $26
18 TUARTS PRIDE 51 was $41 now $51
19 UNO JACK (1 Em) 51 was $251 now $201
20 GILLS DREAM (2 Em) 51 SCRATCHED

Sandgroper signing off for the day – Happy New Year everyone!


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-01-01 11:58 ]

(1) Exit Lane looks tuned up for this , been steadily gaining form as distance has stepped up and is racing like a genuine two miler.

(5) Tumeric for second for obvious reasons great run in the Cox Stakes and trained by A Matthews of course.

Chuck in (12) Dannamatt for value , lightly raced 5yo ran a fair race in the Cox Stakes , run before was quite good and drops 7kgs from Cox Stakes run.