I redid the chart as something I could understand but used your figures.


I like plotting the distribution as it makes it easy to see the issues. The way I plotted your data Cols G and H as a scatter plot with smooth lines connecting them .

Looking at it I am slightly worried in the distribution on the losing side. It looks like it needs a few more data points to smooth that out. The problem you have at the moment is the tail on the positive side is much higher then the negative side. I would question why this is the case and what I find is this occurs with backfitted systems (not saying yours is). You will at some point have the same losses on the negative side and these are seriously going to dent any of your profits.

At this stage with the 10% chance due to luck and the distribution I would put this into a 3 month watch period. I might even bet it with small stakes but I wouldn't be betting a large amount on the selections just yet.

This isn't probably what you wanted to hear but it might save you a few dollars in the long run. More data will definitely help though.

thanks for the observations, not surprised that at this point there is a likelihood of a fair variation on results achieved to date as those results are from a raw set of ratings.

as long as it can continue at around the breakeven mark, the addition of a few simple filters has to date proved profitable, as always time will tell

stugots,

At least you have some idea of what to look at now. If you ever want the selections with filters applied checked just let me know.

Stix,

I am looking into your stuff tonight and tommorrow so expect an email reply by Saturday.

wesmip1 if i could pick your brain - do you put more emphasis/importance on standard deviation/distributions than the chi-test?

for example if a chi-test shows <1% due to luck but the bell chart is marginally biased to the negative side, which would you pay most attention to or do you consider them equally important?

stugots,

I would say equally important and if either one is showing something negative I am wary of the system for betting. You want everything to line up right if your going to bet a system (and even then it can fall over in a heap some times).

If I had to choose one I would choose the distribution as I find it gives a better overall picture and it not as easy distorted by backfitting. If you plot a back fitted system the distribution will usually show it.