Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #31  
Old 2nd June 2012, 08:44 AM
Mark Mark is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Qld
Posts: 1,392
Default

Whilst I won't pretend to understand what your charts mean I think I know what you're trying to do, and I believe it will be a rollercoaster ride.
There will be races where you may have only the one winner ie the horse that despite its rank (wherever that may be) will be over the assessed price and not laid, and if it's right in the market the others will all be losers. Similarly I can see races where you only lay half the field.

Good luck with it but I can only stress (again & again & again) that bookies make their profits from the short end of the market, and every race is totally independent from every other race.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 2nd June 2012, 09:37 AM
beton beton is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
Default

Thanks Mark
I hear you loud and clear. The chart is there for procedual advice only. The figures have no meaning other than having a figure in the cell. The figures are only the average SR for all horses in all criteria expressed as odds. The final figures will be totally different. My concern will be getting matched and whether any unmatched lays will automatically go to SP. I think that I have your message and intend to take it board. Beton
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 11th June 2012, 12:56 PM
beton beton is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
Default

Firstly thanks for the advise given. I have given it the respect it demands. I was off in another paddock. I have finally analysed my data (43000 races) and made 11 charts each with 9 price ranges. This will be the base for future testing. Each is set up so that I can test laying for liability, variable liability, for a target amount or a varying target amount. I can now test on individual favorite, some favorites or all favorites. On the first chart I played with the variables and found that laying some of the field to a fixed even liability worked best. I made the remaining spreadsheets set to this model and found some anomalies. In some price ranges there were major losses in select field sizes and little niches which gave excellent profit. I found that by dumping 17% of the races I can make an acceptable profit on turnover with a simple basic system run on BBP. By dumping another 5% of races more profit could be gained but that would mean 3 different systems to be run concurrently.
Beton
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 08:18 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655