Hi Star,

With a 20-22% strike rate, you will experience runs of 20+. Keep the faith if you think the selection method has merit. Have you experienced a run of 2nd's and 3rd's in this period?

Here's some figures Bhagwan provided regarding expected runs of outs vs strike rate.

Strike Rate(%) -----Max. Outs in a Row
5-------------------- 135
10------------------- 66
15------------------- 43
20------------------- 31
25------------------- 24
30------------------- 19
35------------------- 16
40------------------- 14
45------------------- 12
50------------------- 10
55------------------- 9
60------------------- 8
65------------------- 7
70------------------- 6
75------------------- 5
80------------------- 4
85------------------- 4
90------------------- 3
95------------------- 2

The Schmile

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

The 7 to 1 is the important number here not the 20% SR. What's your expected run of outs at 7 to 1?

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Hi star


I understand what you are saying when you put everything to = 0
Yet it still shows an order.

It should display the T.A.B. ORDER you would think.

Eg
Flem race=1
Settings= 0

order
7-1-9-4-6-3-8-2.

These are not the default settings either.
I have no idea why this is so but i can tell you,
Once you establish a setting order in each column.
The integral value will only change if you change,
The actual setting say from 3 to 5 etc.

The = 0 with an order i can't explain if it's factored for,
Something then it should be the same for all no matter what the settings
Are that you use.

Cheers.

This is what may be of better use star.


Strike rate =20%
Runs of expected outs.
Nos of bets.
10=(5.8)
100=(15.5)
1,000=(25.8)
10,000=(36.9)

Article (mathematics for the punter)Author(the turf accountant)
Source(Punters Choice)

When you get sufficient bets up bank drawdown is best.

For the moment this may explain it as to why this is happening.

Heed A.P T.S. and others it's all relevant.

Cheers.

Hi Gary, every sort routine will default to some value, depending on data.
In this case it's alphabetical if no other is available, followed by Tab Numbers etc.

Don't want to get involved but I hardly ever find the ranking order to change much even after scratching.
Cheers

You are getting me into unknown territory now. All I know, and have been watching closely is my consistent strike rate that varies between 19 and 26 % and is generally consistent about 20 to 22%.

So working on that, if I am correct means a winner in every five races so to go forward I have to achieve an average winer of 6s. I have been doing better then that and that is why my bank has been rising slowly but consistently.

In reply to your first part of the question I cannot tell you what my expected run of outs are at 7 to I. I think I do not quite understand what you are getting at but my thinking is we are both on the same tram and I may not be expressing myself very clearly.

The good Lord has provided us with list of expected run of outs. They are very close to what I feel comfortable with and try to work on a level of 40 outs at my 20% SR which works out at 2 1/2 % of bank.

As the bank rises I expect to make a withdrawal or reduce the bet to 2% and so on. Which is what I have done recently.

However Staking Plans are another side issue I am interested in, but not in this thread as it complicates what I am finding to be a very thought provoking thread for me.

Star

AAAHHH thanks for clearing that up for me Lomaca.

I was going bonkers not being able to work it out.

By the way.

"WELCOME BACK WAS WONDERING WHERE YOU WERE"

Other than a few posts on MO'S greyhound thread,
You have been quiet.

I know the reason i will go that way myself if it happens.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Thanks Gary, you know the reason, and I think I keep it this way.

Good luck to all.

While this thread is drawing out, I think bit by bit we ( I ) am starting to get my head around this.

A lot has been discussed here. So, if I am correct in my thinking that the best time to do the neurals is after the Scratchings.

Anything before is still in Perpetual Motion if I can say that. Maybe an occassional alteration , but I can live with that.

However, what makes it difficult is the time factor, I generally have to put my bets on the night before, because time may not be on my side in the morning.

Star

ps

The good thing is my Number 1 System only has a few bets, so I might be able to manage that. The neural order is a very effective preliminary filter that has been very successful, I do not want to mess with that.

System 2 has much more bets, so the Neurals may not be the answer as a Pre Filter.

Star, a sad fact of life is that the further you go on the closer your strike rate is going to get to 12.5% (7/1). A 20% strike rate at an average SP of 7/1 represents an advantage of 60%. Wish you luck but you won't be able to maintain that long term. You may have mentioned it somewhere but how many bet's have you had?

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash