Hi Barny,

Swings and roundabouts with these Unitab 100 pointers after last weeks poor performance!

Today there were 34 selections (A,B,M & S) for 12 winners.

8 of these paid <$4 but the other 4 paid $12.00, $16.90, $26.00 & $31.00 - these prices are based on best tote or Top Fluccuation.

Win S/R = 20.9% with 132 winners from 632 bets. 26 winners were Odds on while 11 winners were >$10 on each Saturday since 7th July 2012.

This would have brought you slightly in to the black if you had backed all qualifiers from each of the 4 states.

I would have to say it was a helluva long time waiting to get on the playground though!

ixlatO,
Thats correct.
Cheers

Hey Barny.
Are these 2 the Smokys in the Melb Cup?
Green Moon
Mourayan.

Hope you were following Malcolms tips in the 4th @Goulburn.

FROM 2005 -6 IT WAS INTRESTING -PLACE WAS A BETTER RETURN - FROM MY SAVED BITS AND PIECES MAY BE OF USE

Ratings for 100
Selections : 24582
Win $ : 20998.6
Place $:21739.2

Ratings for 99
Selections : 8259
Win $ : 7291.7
Place $:7332.9

Hi Ianian,

From your figures the clear outcome is you can not just back every 100 or 99 point selection as they are clear losers.

You need to either dispense with some type of races, some days of betting, some type of beast or maybe the horses age or sex or some horses in particular price ranges.

For the latter I generally eliminate any horses priced <$3.30 and >=$10 in prepost markets. This improves S/R and POT% immensely.

Anyone else's thoughts?

I haven't got any stats on Ratings, but I do have 5 years worth of Herald Sun formguides so I'll have a butchers. I agree with your Pre-Post restrictions, this was one of Privateers best filters. I have nothing to back this up but in one of my systems, prizemoney went into profit at $29,999, continued to increase until $99,999 then petered out at $199,999. This was uncanny as it rose as if some perfect mathematical formula, then drifted down until it ran out of steam, Each increase in P'money met with an increase in POT, then each decrease in P'money after $99,999 met with a decrease in POT. It was gradual and consistent and this system had nothing to do with form, so it makes the P'money an even more reliable indicator for mine. So P'money from say $30k to $200k might be worth a look. I'd also look at the number of starts for each runner, and something like 10 to 20 starts will give you a horse that's still got improvement in it, and I'm assuming that the rest of the field will have had enough starts to be able to have whatever formula it is, applied as a Rating. Not much point having horses with very few starts next to their name. I'd only go with Metro.

Anything else, like introducing or deleting your own 'form' and you're **************ising the formula.

There you go, I've got opinions on subjects I know very little about ..... it's one of my more endearing qualities

LG posted that the difference between a 100 Rated horse and a 95 Rated horse was the equivalent of one length ..... Is this correct ??

Hi Barny,

I also look at horses with limited starts (5-20) as I believe they have better chance of improvement than horses with more starts.

The prizemoney - is this average prizemoney or total prizemoney earned?

Horses that start 7 days or multiples there of seem to have a positive effect on POT% and the bank. Your thoughts?

Race Prizemoney Try Try Again, its' a race filter, nothing to do with the horse as I'm assuming horse Prizemoney would be part of the Ratings formula.

I don't really take too much notice of days between runs.