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#31
3rd May 2014, 03:31 PM
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Carry Forward -.50c
GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00 Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09 Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm Lay at $4.50 Lay at $1.25 Essedon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm Lay at $1.34 Lay at $3.75
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#32
3rd May 2014, 06:09 PM
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CP,
Just an observation, but from my dart board random assessment of a few of these across multiple sports, it appears in 90% of cases the favourite firms (or stays the same) and the long shot drifts. What is your feel for this ?
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#33
3rd May 2014, 06:18 PM
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Carry Forward -.50c
GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00 Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09 Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 Get in! Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm Lay at $4.50 Lay at $1.25 Essedon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm Lay at $1.34 Lay at $3.75
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#34
3rd May 2014, 06:26 PM
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Quote:
It's fairly even when you look at the amounts. Often it will stay the same or firm a little, but when it drifts it compensates more. So you end up a little better off laying first then backing. But you are right by strike rate.
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#35
3rd May 2014, 06:29 PM
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Carry Forward -0.50c
GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00 Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09 Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 Get in! Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm Brisbane Lay at $4.50 Back at $6.00 Sydney Lay at $1.25 Back at $1.19 Essendon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm Essendon Lay at $1.34 Back at $1.32 Bulldogs Lay at $3.75 Back at $4.00
__________________
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#36
3rd May 2014, 06:56 PM
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Quote:
I'm trying to work out the profit on these. So this might help others understand it. GWS vs Port Adelaide. Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00 = Back and Lay cancel each other out. Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c = (10*(1.11-1.08)) = 0.30 Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09 = Back and Lay cancel each other out. Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 = (10*(11.50-10.50)) = 10 Thanks for posting the prices.
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#38
3rd May 2014, 07:16 PM
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Thanks to you two 'tag team champions'. Starting to get it now.
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#39
3rd May 2014, 07:33 PM
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Yes, sorry I haven't given full calculations, I do this day in and day out so I forget that it does need a bit of explanation. Once you get the calculations, it just becomes automatic mental arithmetic.
Basically you don't need to work out any calculations for the losing side, only the winning side. It's just (back odds - lay odds) * stake (less commission)
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#40
3rd May 2014, 08:34 PM
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For those who not use to betfair. The reason you don't have to worry about the losing side is because you layed it for $10. So you get back $10 because the team lost. You have also backed it for $10 to win so your winning on the $10 lay just pays back your losing of $10 on the back.
Its all simple when you understand it.
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