All this above discussion is music to my ears.
as i have said previously i have seen many systems win for 3+ years then disappear -why ? was it because they had a "lucky" streak that ran for 3 years and now was reverting to the long term average or was this part of an even bigger picture - only more and more data will give that answer.

2ndly data management - i am always encouraged when i see systems that propose that you back the opening or closing favourite - encouraged you may ask ? yes because it provides mug money - i would say in 20% these things are not known until after the race.

Given the recent discussions over the track surfaces in Sydney, thought I'd post some stats that may or may not reflect some of the theories put forward for favourites at each venue.









Is Randwick really so bad given the average field sizes?

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Been some discussion recently regarding Metro favourites versus Country and Provincial favourites on the net.

So how does it stack up?

Metro
31.63% S/R -11.44% POT
Provincial
32.21% S/R -13.59% POT
Country
31.53% S/R -12.93% POT

Doesn't seem to support the theories put forward.
In fact, it is telling that although Metro favourites don't win as often as Provincial favourites, but you lose less money by backing them. Metro favourites overall are better value than Provincial or Country favourites.
That is merely a starting point of course.

What about odds on favourites?

Metro
52.91% S/R -12.08% POT
Provincial
53.28% S/R -10.80% POT
Country
52.78% S/R -11.20% POT

What about favourites that are not odds on?

Metro
29.05% S/R -11.37% POT
Provincial
29.01% S/R -14.01% POT
Country
28.77% S/R -13.16% POT

In summary, as a generalization, odds on favourites are overbet on Metro tracks, but favourites that are not odds on are underbet in relation to Provincial or Country favourites.
There is much more you can get into such as field size and track condition, class and distance.
As always, returns can be improved by obtaining the best odds on your selections. Returns quoted are based on NSW TAB Dividends only.

RaceCensus has now been updated to 31/08/2014 and updates are being sent out tomorrow.

There's almost 5GB of data in the database covering more than 15 years data.
There's 2.279 million records and more than 218,000 races!

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Chrome, do I take it that a good place to start is "metro Tracks where the Fav is NOT odds on" but take the best price on offer"? all I want is to break even and I can retire proper!! serious!

Hi party

Metro fav under = 3.80 SP i have no hassle sorting these out bet fair fav even better.

4 to 7 years
no back markers
nsw tote or sp price easy to beat

5726 bets level stake 0.54% on turn over 36.7 sr

5726 bets to price 0.05% on turn over

behind 70 points at one stage


odds on level stakes -6.13% on turnover 740 bets

claiming apprentices lose about 10% on turn over.

3758 bets 3.85 turn over 34.9 SR

one losing year 2010 -5% on turn over -32 points

Chrome may be able to do longer as i only have 4 years hope this helps you retire all the best.

59.5 or less saves 20 points

5 starts or more saves another 20 points

pm of 30,000 saves 50 points

thats 30,000 plus pm

7 or more starters also helps

That would be a starting point only.
You need to account for drifters and steamers, when do you take the price?
Betfair will basically breakeven, BUT then there's commission and turnover charges.

I would look at harness leaders at the bell (a lap out) in running, or look into sports betting. You'll make a small profit either way. I'd suggest Pinnacle for sports betting, and taking a sport you know something about.

For example: I follow Tennis a fair bit.
The player who has the serve for the game is usually odds on and usually wins that game. However, when Ivanovic was playing a much lower ranked opponent early on in the series, I used to back her to win the game that was in play, if the other player, had serve.
I got some great odds, $5.00 and $6.00 to win the game.
She came through often enough to provide a nice return.
Ended up winning the match, but her match odds were a ridiculous $1.28.

I only use this method with well ranked players, who are playing much lower ranked players and their match odds are below $1.50.
Only if these three criteria are met, do I go in for the kill during the entire match when the other player has serve.

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