also stats can support anything. a bit of shane warne tweak and you can have an undeniable statistic.

while stats can show past trends, thats all they are. past trends, which may or may not continue to occur.

While maths can be used for gambling, horse racing itself is not a science. I think to win long term you need to limit your bets to say 4 or 5 a week. Then have a few tri's or $5 bets for fun.

As i've said before it depends what your comfort zone is. The problem with horse racing is the uncertainty of racing."the only certainty in racing is the uncertain".

If anyone is interested in the place method in my post on this thread.
Today until I left the track at 3.30 there were 4 place bets for 3 results for a total of 8.9.

Cheers

I like it Kenchar. Avoid the pie stall and bus stop above all ealse ?

Shane Warne tweak Umrum [?] How about a Chappell underarm ?

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-10-02 18:52 ]

Haven't posted for a long time but wanted to reply to those of you who don't believe that a "system" (or "method" as I prefer to call it) can be developed and be regularly profitable for a long period.

I developed my own method through the intensive analysis of 2 years worth of racing statistics, around 18 months ago and shared some of my ideas on this forum. I then introduced 2 new principles and dropped 2 and monitored this for 6 weeks before committing cold, hard cash.

Since then, my longest losing streak has been 5 races and I am able to make quite a healthy living from punting without needing to work.

Of course I don't want to give away all that I've learned but here are a few pointers for those interested:

Only bet on Metropolitan race meetings. Ideally, select the Metro meeting(s) which has/have the best class of race. eg tomorrow, you wouldn't touch Brisbane or Adelaide with a barge pole.

Never, ever bet on rain affected tracks. Doesn't matter if your selection has webbed feet, don't do it.

Try and concentrate your selections around the top 6 saddlecloths.

Down in class and up in weight is better than up in class and down in weight.

Barrier positions do not play as big a part in the result as often as people think.

The place strike rate % is a better guide to a horses chances than the win strike rate %

Always, always, always look for value with your bets. (I won't bet on anything under $4)

When betting each way, always bet on a 1 win/3 place ratio.

The often touted "within 3 lengths of the winner last start" or similar alleged guide to selections, is NOT a valid theory.

Average prizemoney (Top 5) is an excellent base to work with.

Good luck to all.

Privateer

My method notwithstanding....tomorrow I like

Thorn Park in Sydney
Belus & Sylvaner in Melbourne



[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2003-10-03 19:04 ]

Welcome back, Privateer. Trust it will not only be a short visit!

Thanks too for the form tips. Much wisdom there.

I tend to agree about barriers but Thorn Park from 18 ? Boss on deck might help but the distance is the real worry.

Great post and spot on advice re systems.

Privateer,

A lot of wise information and advice there. Glad to see you're winning.
I'll just add a couple of things which may help some punters.

The beaten margin is far more accurate in assessing a horse's chances than actual placings.

Average prizemoney is more powerful if you use the average prizemoney won over the last three starts and compare it with the overall API.
The last three starts API should also be massively larger than the career API - if it's not then your horse is in very poor form!

Barriers have very little to do with a horse's winning chances unless you can specifically pick out a reason for a barrier not suiting your horse's pattern of racing.

Average lengths beaten over last three starts is far stronger than lengths beaten last start.

Track and distance stats for your horse are pretty useless UNLESS you assess the failures rather than the wins.

Did you know that less than 15% of races are won by horses with 100% track or distance record?

Great advice Chrome Prince and Privateer!!!

Whether your selections are a mechanical method or based on experience I think the main thing is that your foundations are based on facts. Stats that stand up week in week out.

Twodogs

As we are talking Saterday meetings, go straight to what the top Jocks are riding. The top ones will get on the best rides regardless of Trainer [the good trainers just happen to have the best horses most of the time].
Cory Brown won the three Sydney Group 1 races [in a row] yesterday.
Bowman, Beadman, Cassidy, Quinn, Munce, Beasley and Brown x3 won all the races. In Melb. Prebble won a treble [had to get that one in], Baster, Nikolic, King. Oliver and Findlay the last race.
Jockey's do the form and you usely find a top jock on the winners because they get the first choice of rides. Forget the apprentices [except for Zac Purton] on Sat.

Cheers.

Evening Crash,

I think it's important to also look at trainer/jock combo's!! Got to be careful of some of the lesser lights.

Twodogs