Mr J,

Well done with the tip for the Hurricanes on the line! :smile:

I think that draw may really hurt the Blues chances now, especially as they didn't get the 4 tries.

Yeh I thought I was gonna get the draw, at 19-26. My model actually predicted a score of 25-25 as well, so that gives me a bit of confidence. Have to do some tests to see whether my scoreline was luck or a decent estimate.

I think the Blues are still okay. Lost at home and are 1-3 away. There'll be alot of pressure to hold all home games. You're right though, they're not a good chance. Blues will have to defend against NSW, highlanders, the bulls and the stormers. Not only that but they'll need to win one more away game against either the sharks or the cats (cats their best bet).

I think the result hurts the hurricanes more. They'll need to pull off at least 2 away wins against NSW, Highlanders, or the ACT (highlanders being their best bet). They'll have to defend at home against the crusaders (who are coming into some form) and the reds.

Both sides really had to win to remain a decent chance.

Think it's time to start a new thread...

Good call Mr J, not sure if the Blues even with Carlos back can do it...yes, the Hurricanes are going to have to do it hard but there were signs of grit and hopefully Tana can provide a cooler head. There is definitely the manpower and Sooaialo provided some steel in the forwards. The Hurricanes would be a good team with a decent first five and stronger front row. They depend on their backs to run too much...Nonu will be burnt out by the end of the season. Hey, how's my Bulldogs eh...tears in the beers...better team (Premiers?) won last night! C'mon the Chiefs to bring me some money LOL!

Well, I backed the Roosters at $4.50 pre-season. I reckon that's looking okay now.
I also got $1.60 about them finishing in the Top 4 which I think was pretty good.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-27 13:28 ]

Good on you sportznut :wink:

Chiefs and Dockers wins made up for a poor Bulldogs result (mind you, a lot of it had to do with the great league that the Roosters were playing- must be favourites to win). Chiefs played no frills rugby and kept their solid defense going most of the game but they had a lot of help from the error ridden Warratahs- no doubt looking forward to a home game and a couple of days rest...love to see Queensland win at ACT but the Brumbies will want to stamp their authority on the Reds and send a clear message to the competition...their odds must have shortened heaps...might be a good time to sort out a dark horse after tomorrow's game...mmm!!!

Well, I reckon the Brumbies, Crusaders and Sharks are all looking okay for semi final spots but who knows? There's only really one team that has no chance at all at this stage. Peronally, I would like to see the Reds get there, but I don't think that'll happen. I think the Brumbies should win today.

Your Dockers were good, but then again, I don't think Carlton were top quality opposition. My team, the Lions got up in a close one. I actually backed the Swans with 23.5 pts start and that was never really in doubt. I think St Kilda are a great top 8 chance after their performance, and with an incredibly favourable draw, the Hawks are also looking good for the 8.

The Roosters were terrific on Friday night and are certainly favourites for the title, but I still expect the Bulldogs to be thereabouts come September. That's if they haven't been kicked out of the competition by then!!! :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-28 07:02 ]

Sports, haven't seen the remaining draw for S12 cos if any outside team is to have a chance they need to have a lot of home games and some of the lower teams as opposition. Teams who have strong attacking (and decent defensive) stats will be the go cos bonus points will be extremely impt in the second half of the comp...anyone come to mind Sports?

Not sure what the Roosters are on but their speed and strength in everything they do is incredible! And Wing has been out with injury...

Panthers have all the stats in their favour today (finished well last week) and it will be a hard one for the Warriors especially the way Jones has been playing and the loss of Tony Martin thru injury...they have shifted Faumiuina to centre after Toopi's disinterest in the first couple of games and I think the props will have to do their work or they might be on the end of a big score loss...Seuseu is back but not starting...defence has been weakened with Betham out with injury...but you can never tell with the Warriors...if Jones is given the freedom to attack (thats where Ropati has to step up) then things could be different...it will be a high scoring game, I reckon, but not sure what the outcome will be. Might be one to bet re line...

Desi,

Here's the draw for all teams for the 2nd half of the comp:

Blu vs War(H), Bul(H), Sto(H), Cat(A), Sha(A), Hig(H)
Bru vs Cru(A), Hig(H), BYE, War(A), Hur(H), Chi(A)
Bul vs BYE, Blu(A), Red(A), Cru(A), Chi(A), Cat(H)
Cat vs Sha(A), Chi(H), Cru(H), Blu(H), Red(H), Bul(A)
Chi vs Hig(A), Cat(A), Sha(A), Sto(H), Bul(H), Bru(H)
Cru vs Bru(H), Sha(A), Cat(A), Bul(H), Sto(H), Hur(A)
Hig vs Chi(H), Bru(A), BYE, Hur(H), War(A), Blu(A)
Hur vsRed(H), BYE, War(A), Hig(A), Bru(A), Cru(H)
Red vs Hur(A), Sto(H), Bul(H), Sha(A), Cat(A), War(H)
Sha vs Cat(H), Cru(H), Chi(H), Red(H), Blu(H), Sto(H)
Sto vs BYE, Red(A), Blu(A), Chi(A), Cru(A), Sha(A)
War vs Blu(A), BYE, Hur(H), Bru(H), Hig(H), Red(A)

The Sharks have a great run with 6 straight games at home and really should get enough wins to make the semis, barring an incredible loss of form. I also favour the Brumbies to be in there, especially if they beat the Reds today. The Crusaders are finding form and I think they also have a good chance. The Blues draw isn't too bad and there's still some chance they could make it but I think they might need a few results to go their way.

I'm still having trouble analysing both the Stormers & Bulls - a bit inconsistent to-date but on their day both can play top notch rugby.