I meant our races only!

Would it be profitable to place lay bets at say roughly half SP?

Our races, half SP - no way, sorry.

Over time the shorter you lay below the pre off Betfair price, the more it's exactly breakeven (before the commission demons).

I have seen quite a few 1.20 and shorter get rolled, but it's the eye that catches them.

I'm sure some days it's profitable, but not in the longrun.

If a horse is at evens and you lay it at $1.50, you're going to cop a lot of winners - too many to the ratio of losers.

If you know something else, like the horse always breaks first or is a leader, then you'd have an extra edge. This is where intense form study comes in handy.

But for mine, if the horse is trading at $2.00 on Betfair and is $1.90 with the bookies, my lays go in at $1.90 and $1.85.

The only exception is if I know a leader has a bad habit of leading and getting swallowed up late, then I dabble in the $1.20 to $1.05 range.

But that area is just a bit of interest to keep things exciting.

If someone wanted to have a go at the longer priced horses, but still in the market, say the bookies have it at $4.50 and betfair have it at $5.50, I'd recommend laying at no shorter than $5.00.

But the shorties is where the profit is at, horse is sittiing just behind the bolter and second fave ready to pounce, they round the home turn, horse trades at $1.90 and $1.85 as the callers says "he's cantering behind the leaders and pulls out to make his run" only it's a long straight and he runs out of steam or gets blocked and runs a length second.

That's how I get matched usually.

__________________
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Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
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Having said all that, I'd look for tracks and days where the backmarkers are flying home and try the $1.02 $1.05 or $1.10's.

But if you do it every race, you'll have some very bad days.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

This is what last night looked like for me laying:

$1.90 LOST
$1.57 LOST
$1.80 WON
$1.62 LOST
$1.40 LOST
$1.50 LOST
$1.91 LOST
$1.67 WON
$1.80 WON
$1.62 WON
$1.80 WON

Outlay 11 units
Profit 2.31 units
21% POT laying (before commission)

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Hi Bhagwan, do you still have a copy of this book? I've been searching high and low for it as a gift for my father... If you still have it would you be interested in selling it or photocopying it for me? We have been looking for a copy of it for years now and have had absolutely no luck so if you do have it (or anyone else out there) I'd be very appreciative for a copy. Thanks

Have a copy of this publication it was titled "The Secrets of Turf Success " written by Jack O"Brien if interested ring after 7.30 PM EST on 0403 76 99 55
Rgds

Thanks Jack, will give you a call tomorrow after 7:30pm if that suits