OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#391

9th February 2013, 07:07 AM

michaelg

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,790

U.B.

I've checked the records of the accidents.

Unfortunately field size hasn't had any importance. Fields of 13-plus have had their fair share of accidents.

I'll ignore field size and hope the method continues to perform.

Thanks for your positive intentions.

Last edited by michaelg : 9th February 2013 at 07:14 AM.

#392

9th February 2013, 09:30 AM

SpeedyBen

Member

Join Date: Oct 2012

Posts: 464

Quote:

Originally Posted by michaelg

Hi, U.B.

Not knowing anything about computers I don't have a spreadsheet.

Michael
Betfair has a simple function to download your history into a spreadsheet. All you need is to have Excel on your computer. Most do and you can get some fantastic summaries from it. Happy to lend a hand if you'd like.

#393

9th February 2013, 11:05 AM

michaelg

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,790

Thanks for your kind offer, Speedy Ben. However one of my fiends will soon be spending a week in my area and I will ask him to sit at my computer and show me what to do.

Today's selections:

Warwick Farm
8/11

Newcastle
2/3, 14
4/1, 7
5/5, 16, 17
7/10

Nowra
4/10
5/5, 6, 8

Coonabarabran
1/7
2/15
3/5, 10

Gold Coast
3/5, 9
7/12

Toowoomba
2/7

Not many selections today because of the introduction of the recent filter.

#394

9th February 2013, 12:23 PM

SpeedyBen

Member

Join Date: Oct 2012

Posts: 464

Quote:

Originally Posted by michaelg

Thanks for your kind offer, Speedy Ben. However one of my fiends will soon be spending a week in my area and I will ask him to sit at my computer and show me what to do.

How many FIENDS do you have Michael?

#395

9th February 2013, 05:57 PM

michaelg

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,790

None fortunately. However after today's results I'm beginning to think I may have a few unknown ones.

There was one accident from the 21 selections for a loss of $213.78. That's two successive losing days - there's never been three so I suppose I should be hopeful about tomorrow...but I can't.

#396

9th February 2013, 08:01 PM

SpeedyBen

Member

Join Date: Oct 2012

Posts: 464

Michael
I don't know if you'd call this good news or bad news but Newc 7/10 ( a loss for you ) was rated at $19.

#397

10th February 2013, 05:57 AM

michaelg

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,790

Thanks, Speedy Ben, you are right about it's D.S. price being $19.

But maybe R&S reduced it's price after the race to reflect it's win.

However no such thing happened to Friday's accident of Pakenham 9/9 because the Worksheet still shows it's D.S. price at $300.

All I can think of is that yesterday I must have identified it's D.S. price before R&S loaded the scratchings which reduced it's price to $19 - this is something I must consider.

So I don't really know if yesterday's accident was a genuine one. And to reduce from a price of $100(?) to $19 does seem extreme and unlikely, but because I listed it here as a selection I have to wear it. However, yesterday's disappointment is now almost non-existent. Fortunately I layed some of the other selections for more than the standard $333 to break-even on the day.

Thanks for checking it out and bringing it to our notice.

Last edited by michaelg : 10th February 2013 at 06:03 AM.

#398

10th February 2013, 06:17 AM

UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline

Member

Join Date: Sep 2011

Posts: 1,534

I record before scratchings:

meeting	race	horse	TAB	RFS	DLS	YR	BRR	FORM	COND	CONS	BP	JOCK	JC	FR	EM	PER	DIVIDEND
28937	7	TEN TO ZERO	10	5	17	38.5	32	0.5	0	0	-0.5	1.5	0	33.5	4	3.87	26

The Final Rating was 33.5 and the don scott price was $26.

Here are all the horses:

28937	7	MY MAN OF WAR	1	8	29	34.5	34.5	-2	0	0	0	1.5	3	37	0.5	13.94	7
28937	7	BINALONG ROAD	2	0	77	35.5	35.5	0	-6	0	0	2.5	2	34	3.5	5.11	20
28937	7	KIMBERLEY KID	3	5	9	36	33.5	-2	0	-1	0	-0.5	0	30	7.5	0.62	201
28937	7	FOREIGN NEWS	4	5	19	36	35	1	0	-0.5	-2	0	0	33.5	4	3.87	26
28937	7	BRAGGART	5	5	17	36	33	-2	0	0.5	-1.5	1.5	3	34.5	3	6.2	16
28937	7	CZAR OF YANGERY	6	4	13	38.5	32.5	0.5	0	-1	-1	1.5	0	32.5	5	2.17	51
28937	7	FRANKENFURTER	7	0	167	34	34	0	-6	0	0	0.5	0	28.5	9	0.15	601
28937	7	LE BEAU CHEVAL	8	4	14	36.5	35	-2	0	0.5	0	0	0	33.5	4	3.87	26
28937	7	LUTHER	9	3	16	33	33	1.5	0	0	-2	-1	0	31.5	6	1.24	81
28937	7	TEN TO ZERO	10	5	17	38.5	32	0.5	0	0	-0.5	1.5	0	33.5	4	3.87	26
28937	7	REBEL PRINCE	11	1	9	38	21.5	4	0	0	-0.5	0	0	25	12.5	0.15	601
28937	7	RICH N FAMOUS	12	0	105	37	37	0	-6	0	0	1	2	34	3.5	5.11	20
28937	7	SANDPIPERS	13	3	21	33.5	33.5	1.5	0	0	0	0	0	35	2.5	7.75	13
28937	7	HADEED	14	0	131	34.5	34.5	0	-6	2	-1.5	0	0	29	8.5	0.31	301
28937	7	UNO FIVE	15	6	39	35	35	0	-1.5	0	-1	1	3	36.5	1	12.39	8
28937	7	ANATOMIC	16	10	35	38	35.5	0	-1.5	-0.5	0	0	0	33.5	4	3.87	26
28937	7	GRIFT	17	3	14	34.5	34.5	1.5	0	0	0	1.5	0	37.5	0	15.49	6.5
28937	7	MARCH TO VICTORY	18	0	243	36.5	36.5	0	-6	0	0	-0.5	0	30	7.5	0.62	201
28937	7	IN NOMINE PATRI	19	4	15	37	33.5	0.5	0	-0.5	-0.5	0	0	33	4.5	3.1	31

Possibly the selection should have been 11 ?

#399

10th February 2013, 07:02 AM

michaelg

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,790

Thanks, U.B - whatever happened, the mistake was mine.

I first write down the selections based on the Worksheet market and at the same time I cross-reference them with the Telegraph. Finally, I look at Unitab for the remaining filters and come up with the final selections.

When I looked at Unitab, No.11 was scratched, so I believe I could not have considered it. No.10 matched all the rules, except for the price, so I still can't say with certainty why I made the mistake.

There's been 1,949 selections - I hope I haven't made any more mistakes. My only excuse is that my selection process is done manually.

Sorry anyone, if you layed it.

I just have to be more careful.

#400

10th February 2013, 08:04 AM

SpeedyBen

Member

Join Date: Oct 2012

Posts: 464

Quote:

Originally Posted by michaelg

Michael
The reason that I checked your selections is that I worked out my own selections and I did not have a loser on the day so, I assumed that I may have overlooked this one. I go a bit wider than you so when you have a loss I always have it too. I did the first half of each meeting on Fri night and the second half about 3pm eastern on Sat. so that is when i would have done the loser's race.

Last edited by SpeedyBen : 10th February 2013 at 08:08 AM.

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