Sorry mate, I guess when I said it was dangerous, in hindsight all betting is. You can go broke just as quick backing even money Fav's as laying 15/1 shots. It's all about Lady Luck. For instance backing $2 horses for a win says you have a 50% chance of winning, but the maths says you could have a losing run of up to 10 before that next win. Laying a 15/1 shot the percentages say you have 94% chance of winning, but there's no guarantee that your next loss might occur in 10 bets time followed by another 5 bets later. So its all about having a staking plan to recover losses and save you long term. Keep doing what you're doing if it works for you. I just hate laying anything over $6.50, it's just what you feel comfortable with.

Hi, Reddevil, you are correct - it should not have been a selection because it was resuming from a spell.

Due to being rushed I incorrectly listed the raw selections here before applying the filters - it was shown in the Daily Telegraph as not resuming but I only believe Unitab which unlike the Tele showed it as resuming from a spell. I was lucky it didn't win the race, and it's good to be aware of the interest of some people who check the authenticity of the selections.

I've double-checked the other selections and as far as I can tell they are all genuine selections.

Mate I hope you didn'y Lay No.1 Prussian Power at Mornington R5. Won @ Lay price of 34:1? If it makes you feel better I just dropped 2 Lays for $166 but am only $20 behind for the day, still a way to go.

Thanks Rinconpaul
I lay from $21 up to $999. I have won 89 of the last 100 days and average 1.5 losers per 100 lays at about $25. It works for me so i'll keep going.

In Mornington 5 I laid nos 7 and 13 so no drama for me. Longshots get up occasionally but the whole fabric of racing would need to turn upside down for them to start winning consistently. All studies that I have seen show that if you BACK every even money chance you would lose less than 5c in the dollar but if you back every 33/1 chance ( e.g ) you would lose a far higher % of your turnover. I use the converse of this to selectively lay the longshots for a healthy profit. Laying to a fixed liability takes the stress out of it. Anyway, enough of this.
I was unaware of the Skyratings and I have never paid much attention to neurals so your posts have alerted me to something new for me to study. Thanks for that.

Mate if you've won 89 Lays out of the last 100 days at say $1 stake = $89 win. So does that also mean you had 11 losing days at average $25 per $1 stake = $275 loss or you had 1.5 losses at $25 = $37.50 loss. It's a bit unclear? Thanks for the insight.

A bettable race for me but i didn't do anything,
Other than record the selections on a spreadsheet.

S.B. these are the ratings you referred to.

Good luck to both for the rest of the day.

http://www.skyracing.com.au/tab/for...38580&plusday=0

Cheers.
Garyf.

I've made my target for the day so I am reporting on the results so far on using the shortest price Neural. If you backed the Neural when it agreed with the best overall Skyform horse, you had 17 races for 7 wins = 41%.
If you layed all the other shortest price Neurals you would have had 18 Lay wins and 1 Back win = 95% Lay win strike rate. Almost as good as yesterday(100%) No rules required except if it matches Skyform don't Lay it.
In fairness to R&S if I reversed the scenario and Layed the best overall Skyform horse except when it matched the Neural, you had 24 races for 19 Lay wins = 79% Lay win strike rate.

NEURALS – Multi factor analysis of numerous stats and data to produce an overall mathematical Neural rating.

In fairness only 2 days data.

A disasterous day - there were two accidents from the 34 selections for a loss of $439.59.

Since increasing the liabilty to $333 (22 Jan) there have been three D, T and C accidents for a loss of $999 yet I doubt the profit for the D, T and C smiles for that period have even come close to half of the $999. So from tomorrow I am re-introducing the filter.

There may now not be many selections but I expect/hope the profit will be better.

...with what felt like a ridiculous number of favourites getting up.

Would love to know how Mark went today.

Regards,

Massive