9th February 2015, 10:14 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
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Super 15 Week 1
Hello and welcome to another Super 15 season.
As I always do, I begin the new season with the ratings of the teams from the end of last season. Otherwise, I update a number of other values that include last season, such as for domestic and international home advantage. I don’t try to guess what between season changes in players and coaches may do to team ratings. I let the actual play on the field do that for me. The biggest adjustments happen in the first four weeks, depending on how teams play compared to what is expected. Adjustments after that happen too, but are smaller. I always suggest that you bet conservatively for the first four weeks.
I notice that my fair decimal odds are very close to book maker odds except that I am picking the Lions and Blues to win at home. I include suggestions on how to use my predictions and odds. I also write about how my system works.
Good luck with week 1.
Ray Stefani
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