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#41
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There is a previous forum member who in 2007 wrote here:
"Maria Santorix sent me a PM on another overseas forum. It is definitely a system based on trainers, sires and form. It took her a couple of minutes each day to pick the lays, so it's more mechanical than we are led to believe". I'm sure she's given hope to many "systems" people. In spite of that, I would prefer to calculate my own prices and then bet the overlays, but unfortunately I'm not savvy with computers. And I would not be surprised if most successful punters are those who bet on overlays using price-ratings. Last edited by michaelg : 11th February 2011 at 06:43 PM. |
#42
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I use systems (no surprise there) and make a good profit every year.
It can be done. Well researched selections with a high probability of winning are the best ways to make a profit in my opinion. The only issue is most peoples systems are not well researched or aimed at high probability selections. For instance I can bet overlays that are $100 when they should be $50 but thats just a difference of 1% in the chance of winning. If my selection technique has an error rate great then 1% I am going to lose long term. On the other hand if my selection is $4 and I classed it as a $2 chance (same as above double the money to what was estimated) then I have estimated a 50% chance of winning and the market has given me odds of 25%. Thats a 25% difference. My technique on ratings can now be 25% off before I would lose long term. Also my run of outs on a $4 selection overlay vs $100 overlay is a lot less and won't hit me pschologically. Things to think about. |
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