Without wanting to offend this is what 95% of punters do and is why they lose. You let the fear take hold. The problem here might be that you didn't plan properly. Assume you have $1000 in your account on betfair. How much are you willing to lose ? Whats your expected drawdown, Whats the expected losing streak ? How will your bank handle this ? What is a safe size to be betting ? etc, etc, etc.

For a $1000 account (from what I have seen posted here already) I would not lay to lose more then $2 a lay (as there is not enough history posted to compute the drawdown and expected losing streak). On a $100 account the liability would not want to be more then 20c.

If your going to bet a system you need to stick with it for a while and need to have the bank to handle these losses.

Most punters can not handle laying as it goes against their usual mindset. Big losses with small wins as opposed to Big wins and small losses.


Again not intending to offend, just trying to point out what I see. I was like this too ... This biggest advice I can give is commit to a method till you lose the amount you set to it. Setup a bank of $100 and lay $0.50 liabilities. Stick with whatever method you are using till you lose $50. It will take a while. While that is happening just keep looking for other methods to try. At worst you lose $50. If it works then you can start to up the stakes. Only test 1-2 methods at a time.

I wished someone told me this advice years go and I had listened.

Hi wesmip1. No offence taken. I know I can be impatient and undisciplined when it comes to my betting. I think this stems from wanting INSTANT returns on my money. You know 100-200-1000% on my bets NOW...lol. Although it is no laughing matter.

It also seems that whenever I trial a system for a while with very small stakes or in simulation mode with my bot everything goes great but then when it comes time to bet it in real life it's like I'm cursed and I give the system the kiss of death or something. Every time.

I will try to heed your advice which anyone who is in a similar predicament like me should also heed.

Thanks.

I've noticed that if I had omitted nos. 1 to 4 from the system, the results would have been much different - I've got too much time on my hands because of my back.

From the four days of listing the selections here there's been 11 accidents from the 77 selections. Surprisingly 10 of the accidents have been from TAB nos. 1 to 4. Even though the method is $90.08 in profit, if I had omitted nos. 1 to 4 then the profit would be approx a further $115 which is about $200 in front. However, it might just be one of those strange and temporary occurrences, and could mean nothing in the long run.

The Ocho, I wonder if its worth looking at nos. 1 to 4 in your system.

However, from today I am omitting these numbers from my betting (hope this isn't a mistake) even though I'll list all the selections below.

Cranbourne
1/10
2/7
3/10
4/1
7/2
8/6

Devenport
3/2
5/9
9/9

Grafton
3/4
6/4
7/2

Parkes
3/7
5/1
7/1

Port Lincoln
6/8
7/5
8/7

Sun Coast
1/8
3/1
6/4

Wodonga
2/3
4/7
8/1

When the scratchings for Pinjarra are known I'll list the selections.

Hi michaelg. Regarding TAB nos 1-4, do your figures also include the winning lays you had with those numbers?

Yes, the figures include the winning lays.

The daily results when deducting winning from losing lays for nos. 1 to 4 are:

Wed - $17 better off.
Thurs - $19 better off.
Fri - $31 better off.
Sat - $51 better off.

Today's Pinjarra selections are:

7/2
8/12
9/12

Been here so many times Ocho,its not hard to take it personaly.you do feel cursed.


Looking back with hindsight though i can see that my expectations and expected low bank were just not realistic.

Getting the timing right for when you start to bet seriously is very important too,ive lost many banks simply because filters were applied too early,i had noticed a pattern and as we do naturaly assume it will stay that way,trouble is its often a very temporary pattern and once things correct themselves there goes your bank (im hoping Michaelg hasnt made the same mistake with numbers 1 to 4).

Good luck with it.

Trialing a ratings method at the moment and made one of those mistakes yesterday.

I had been playing around with betting the top two in quinellas at the start of the week,gave up on it after a couple of quiet days and had it pegged as something to apply to races with 10 starters or more,then,you guessed it along comes the big result.

Ascot 4 my 2nd top rater wins at $18.90,my top rater comes in 2nd and the quinella pays $195.40 ffs

Ended up with the tri as the 3rd top rater chimed in for third -$3009 for a $6 outlay.

9 starters,i had gone off too early again.

Dale, your ratings method sounds promising. I presume you are keeping accurate records and intend to persevere with it.

Today was not a bad day for the Lay system.

Nos 1 to 4.
There were 2 accidents from 11 selections for a profit of $32.53. Unfortunately I did not lay them. I'm recording the results separately to see how they fare.

No. 5 and higher.
There was one accident from 13 selections for a profit of $55.71.

Tomorrow I'm leaving the system alone because Betfair will be down.

Hi Dale,

If I may ask, what's your rationale behind the number of runners in a race for the Quinella, or at all, for that matter?

I can sort of understand not betting for the place when there are less than 8 runners, although the usually higher place divies, more than compensate for the lack of a third dividend, but for the other kinds of wager..?

When we talk about 18 to 24 horses in a race it seems on the face of it, that the chances of finding a winner is harder.

But it's only true if you look at the race purely mathematically, the class horses are still winning their true share of the races, and the interference that sometimes caused by the high number of runners, is again compensated for by the higher prices.

Liked to know why you think 10 is better than 11 or 9?

Cheers