there's only one "o" in LOSE ..... Gawd, I hate that !!!!

"price movements which reflect what we know about past events," ~ Which Way tho ??

I agree totally with you Barny!

It annoys me as well. I wonder if a wheel or tooth was loose how would it be spelt?

They would be woobbly !!

The market can only confirm our intepretation of it in hindsight. You still have to select the horse based on history. The starting price for all favs are statistically correct. The shorter the odds the higher the strike rate. You go out and back every fav then you have a quick trip to the poorhouse. Without the facts I would still state that the majority of these starting favs shortened. Hence the market is bringing some points not in history to the table. At odds on the fav is close to 50% strike rate, so the market helps but it is still 50% wrong. How much of the market is based on NOW? how much is hype? How much is based on the past and how much is based on hysteria?

Each race is a separate event, even a rematch a week later would be a totally different event. The past would show what occured. The market would have to reflect everything else that occured up till now. If that reflection it too heavily based on the past results and not on what has happened since then it is of no additional value.

If horses A,B,C,D,E.F.G and H raced each other and horse A won. If they were meeting today for a rematch, then I would like to see the market reflect that Horse A pulled up sore, and horse E was checked as a result of a stupid jockey decission and that it was fitter and ready to go this week. Does this show in the market maybe but not clearly and not all the time.

The future must be the past transitioning though the present and the more present in the equation the closer the result. Beton

Interesting post Beton.
Can you enlarge on the above?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

What LG said.

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Jose'.

ye gads!

I might have to start a new thread on poor Mr Paretto being left out in the cold. lol

This thread has morphed into something quite special which is the beauty of forums and a collection of minds contributing to a common cause. Mr Hill was right " The Power of the Master Mind. "

Some brilliant and thought provoking info in here and thanks to the contributors.

Star

LG
The future must be the past transitioning though the present and the more present in the equation the closer the result.
Lets keep it to horses.
The past data will show if a horse has the ability to win against the other horses in the field. This data could a week old, 2 weeks old or in the case of resumers up to 6 months old.
For this data to be relative it must also include all the events up till now. Now nominally being the last chance to bet. The present being the time from last recorded data until now. This additional data has to reflect all the events for all the horses in the field. Most of this data is not accessable to the average punter. This additional data has more bearing on the result than the historical data. Hence we must find the horse most likely to win from the historical data. We must then add the present data. The more present data we have added , the truer the result.

In most cases we do not have any present data so the basis of our selection is solely historical data. The only present data that we can tap into is the market. But what info is in the market? Is it real? Is it additional? Or was it just Joe Bloggs dropping his 10 large on the fav, purely because it was the fav, 2 minutes before the jump?

The bottom line is that the more real present time data that we can add to our historical selection the closer we will be in choosing the winner. Beton

Thanks for the clarity, Beton.
Mostly agree with you - especially your final point.

Further points to consider might be...

1. Are we all looking at the same historical data - readily available or otherwise?

2. There will be many different interpretations/applications of that data

3. Even with similar interpretation, most will not apply selection logic based on historical data in the same way or consistently over a period of time

4. There are also different markets(not just the one for 'mug money'), intepretations of market movements and diff time-snapshots to consider


Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB