Originally Posted by michaelg

Hi, U.B.

The edge you are referring to is price-related. Interestingly, a few years ago someone on one of the forums (could even have been this one) said he was making good money by backing on Betfair the horses that had shorter prices than the TAB. However he didn't mention if they were in the top of the market or with all qualifying horses regardless of price. I remember a couple of times whilst I was at my computer I noticed that there were quite a few winners (and placegetters) that started under $10 where the Betfair price was less than that of the NSWTAB.

To do this one has to be at one's computer or have an automated system, and also there may not be much action.

I prefer to lay S.P. early, and I can only do this not by price but system-related that hopefully produces an edge.

Originally Posted by aussielongboat

4 & 5 above IMHO fall into the category of back fitting data.

using all the logic in the world you can filter out some non performing criteria - but be careful as those "non performers" in the fullness of time can become performers.

filter them out by all means - but then in the future examine them in isolation and i'll bet most of the time they will make a come-back - well that's been my experience.


cheers and good luck

Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke

Thanks for your spin on it Aussie. Will look at keeping any exclusions on the radar and test from time to time to see if they are flipping into a profit scenario.

Cheers LG

Originally Posted by Vortech

Thanks for all your feedback Aussie!

When you have a database going back to 12 years and approximately 60 filters there requires a lot of time and patience with your testing.

In relation to variables do you try to initially test against a particular horse applied against a particular race.

For example certain variables will remove certain races. Call them Variable A
Then you have certain variables that will remove certain horses. Call them Variable B.

Examples of variable A include - Min. LS winners, Day of the week, Track conditions, Prizemoney of Race, Class. All of which can remove certain races from a program

Then variable B will include your typical - Barrier, Weight etc.......


Should one be starting to test with one Variable A aganist Variable B?

Where does one start when they have so much information!!!

Originally Posted by aussielongboat

yes i know what you mean.

my method is to test for a particular horse statistic first.
for example last week I was looking at how the top 4 in average prize money fared:
the results were Strike Rate: 21%,15,12,10.
the top ranked having a -14% POT on TATTSBET odds.

place % 1..4 was 20%,15,12,10: rank 1 -15% POT.
I had broken the DB into 2 and it was consistent over both data bases
whereas another ranking 1..4 was : 16,13,12,11 but POT -7%.

that last one would be where i start:


Thus my data base is set up so that it captures information for a particular starter and it at the same time collects information for the races that it is in.

as per the above I then look across the filters and see if there is anything that sticks out as bad or good - that can be a horse statistic such as place % or it can be a race characteristic such as average race prize money , average race rating etc, number of last start winners etc.


and so on it goes.

cheers
aussie

Originally Posted by Vortech

And I suppose you can investigate particular margins too for say the margins between the top Avg P money earned and 2nd.

The list goes on and on.........

Originally Posted by aussielongboat

Remember in the great Australian gold rushes the most money was made by the guys selling the picks and shovels - not the gold diggers.

Originally Posted by Vortech

95% of them made more money while 5% hit the jackpot.
Everyone I'm afraid wants to find the gold but yet we all dig in the same area!