All tracks all days back to 30/6/01

Meetings considered : 3859
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 49.8%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 84.4%
Average Win Dividend : $1.68

WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 456 456 454 454 453 136
Races Won : 230 384 319 217 205 67
S.R./Race : 50.4% 84.2% 70.3% 47.8% 45.3% 49.3%
Outlay ($): 462.00 462.00 2149.00 2149.00 8172.00 7158.00
Return : 386.80 398.40 1816.30 1702.30 6105.20 6392.90
$ Profit : -75.20 -63.60 -332.70 -446.70 -2066.80 -765.10
% P.O.T. : -16.3% -13.8% -15.5% -20.8% -25.3% -10.7%

it wasnt 3.40 on the tote. opened odds-on on the tote and drifted to 2.30

[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2003-09-17 10:13 ]

On 2003-09-03 09:09, Dale wrote:
If more than one tote was used to work out the bet a more accurate selection would be the end result.

Dale these are starting price favourites in the bookmakers' betting ring on Saturdays at the 4 main metro tracks.

Short priced tote favourites are usually poor odds and poor bets. At times they are also not the betting ring favourite.

The tote prices of the bookies' betting ring favourite are given so a comparison can be made with the bookmaker odds, which should be superior, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney.

The results have been put on the site for a number of reasons including:

1. Dispelling the media mug myth that small fields are risky betting races.

2. To show that with form analysis combined with getting good bookmaker odds it is possible to make money betting short priced horses in small fields, particularly Sydney and Melbourne metro meetings.

Umrum
Tote odds are not considered for SP's or any other fluctuation. The SP of Regent Street was $3.40. Jeremiad was the "official" favourite @ $3.30.

Some fascinating statistics there, dinodog. Thanks for your efforts.

Was just wondering about the place returns. Your figures show a return of $398.40 for 384 races 'won'. This works out at less than NSWTab's $1.04 (though I realise you may be using some other Tab's figures). This seems very low!! Surely there would have been a few higher returns?

Sometimes, indeed, the place figure ends up higher than the win figure --- but then perhaps this isn't so when the fields are small?!?!

Thanks again for your efforts.

righto mate. cheers. still 3.30 is hardly short price favourite when on the tote it is 3.80 and there is another horse paying only 2.30 on the tote and in the ring regent street was 3.40?

Yeah my mistake Neil,i'm with it now lol.

I'm a myth beleiver and hate small fields and favorites,but each to his own i guess,i'd prefer to look outside the square than to re visit an idea that might be currently avoided by the betting public.

what about the weekend in the theo marks.
private steer and grand armee both around 6/4
and neither one.

i'm with dale on this one.

With Grand Armee and Private Steer vying for favouritism, it's no wonder something else won the race.

When punters can't split them and are trying so hard to come up with a winner, often something else is overlooked and starts at over the odds.

Dinodog,

I'm flabbergasted at your results for small fields at all tracks.
I'm thinking that at country tracks, there are more false favourites than at city tracks or they are much shorter than they should be which is why I only concentrate on metro tracks.

Merriguy,

NTD.

:wink:

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