Updated. (Reminder: selected 38 of the last 53 winners)


Rule 1 List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and MacKinnon Stakes
Caulfield Cup: Jameka, Exospheric. MacKinnon Stakes: now called the Emirates Stakes and held after the Cup....don't know how that's supposed to work anymore.

Rule 2 List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Who Shot Thebarman, Pentathlon, Excess Knowledge

Rule 3 List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run
N/A

Rule 4 List the Lexus Stakes winner
Oceanographer

Rule 5 Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run.
Delete - Excess Knowledge (7th 2015), Who Shot Thebarman (11th 2015),

Rule 6 Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older.
Delete - Oceanographer

Leaves: Jameka ($8), Exospheric ($20), Pentathlon ($126)

Jameka - #12 saddlecloth has the equal most wins (11). Only two Australian-bred horses have won since 2000.

Exospheric - Trainer Lee Freedman is the participant with the most wins (5) and jockey Damien Oliver has the equal most wins (3). 5yo Entires and Geldings are the age/sex combo with the most wins (43).

Pentathlon - 5yo Entires and Geldings are the age/sex combo with the most wins (43)

Pedigree
There was a bit of pre-race chatter here last year regarding Melbourne Cup runners' pedigrees. So I thought I would play around with it again.

DISCLAIMER - I don't have any subscriptions or special databases, I worked the figures out myself. Consequently there are undoubtedly errors in my working - plus the source I used for conduit mares had a couple of the ones I needed missing. In any case, pedigree study is often so vague that a mistake or two won't make much difference.



Dosage Profile - Roman used a 'dosage profile' to describe the amount of certain traits inherited from preponderant sires called 'chefs de race'. The traits are - from left to right - Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid/Stout, Professional (and also from left to right: aptitude in sprints through to routes). The method is flawed and non-specific, but it does have some bearing on reality: that is, the population of horses that have lots of Brilliant points do better in Sprints than those who don't; but is this *particular* horse with lots of Brilliant points going to do well in Sprints? Can't definitively say. The more points, the more well-bred the horse. For the Cup we'd also like to see lots of points in the Professional category. ....unfortunately the only chefs de race passing on their Professional aptitude are from so long ago they barely feature in modern-day pedigrees. There very well may be sires passing on such genes but it's something that can only be determined retrospectively. (NB - I'm using the list that includes Australian and New Zealand chefs)

DI - Stands for Dosage Index: the ratio of speed to stamina figures in the Dosage Profile. For the Cup, the lower the better. There's a vague relation between DI and ideal running distance (but again, it's the 'on average' ideal for the population of horses with that DI, rather than necessarily being the ideal for a particular horse with that DI). A DI of 0.5 would be about right for 3200m. ....you'll note that none of the above have a DI that low. That's partly due to horses largely being bred for shorter races (there's more of them) and the lack of chefs de race that can add stamina points to the Dosage Profile.

CD - Centre of Distribution: ratio of speed to stamina figures in the profile, though giving more strength to the extremes than the DI. There's the same kind of relation between it and preferred running distance - and it's used in this regard more often than the relationship with DI is. The lower the figure, the longer the race suits. A CD of 0.16 would be about right for 3200m (though it's subject to the same issues as above).

Triads - Dosage has a number of issues, foremost amongst these is that there is no regard to the genetic contribution of females in the pedigree, nor to stallions who aren't deigned to be chefs de race. There have been studies that show some physical attributes are passed through mitochondrial DNA (i.e. along female lines) so a lot of such information would be missed through dosages. It's complicated to describe, but for the Cup you'd ideally be looking for a smaller number first and a larger number last - i.e. the total number of inherited traits are skewed towards stamina-based ones.

Speed/Stamina - Derived from the same data as previous, just thrown in sharper relief. Again, the bigger the gap the better, and the largest figure should be the latter. (This is presuming a truly run race, of course; in a sit and sprint it may be advantageous to have it reversed, as speed would then be the determinant factor of success in the race).

Conduit Index - ratio of speed to stamina figures, as derived from Conduit Mares. Unfortunately I've never found a source which equates a Conduit Index with an average ideal distance (like DI and CD do). The lower, the longer; however. 0.5-0.9 looks good - unless it's run super fast or super slow.


So who's going to win? No idea.

The highest CD of the last 20 Melbourne Cup winners: 0.7 (Jameka and Rose of Virginia have larger ones)

The highest DI of the last 20 Melbourne Cup winners: 5.4 [2.52 was the next highest] (Rose of Virginia has a larger one)

Lowest Stamina number of the past 20 winners (except for Rogan Josh, which I couldn't figure out): 12 (Wicklow Brave, Almoonqith, Excess Knowledge, Pentathlon, Qewy and Rose of Virginia are lower)


Pedigreely speaking, if the pace is true - as several trainers have indicated it will be - I like Big Orange and Secret Number as winning chances; Curren Mirotic and Who Shot Thebarman to place (who would actually be best suited of all, but their ages and barrier are concerning...)

A moderate pace: Big Orange, Exospherical, Grand Marshal, Heartbreak City, Almandin, Secret Number.

....but you can argue for just about anything*. That's the beauty of pedigrees!




* - anything except Rose of Virginia

A wet track should enhance the chances of:

Our Ivanhowe Soft: 4: 2-1-0
Bondi Beach Soft: 2: 1-1-0 Heavy: 1: 1-0-0
Hartnell Soft: 8: 4-1-0 Heavy: 3: 1-1-1
Wicklow Brave Soft: 12: 3-0-3 Heavy: 4: 4-0-0
Gallante Soft: 6: 2-1-1 Heavy: 2: 2-0-0
Grand Marshal Soft: 6: 3-0-1 Heavy: 5: 0-3-1
Jameka Soft: 3: 1-1-0 Heavy: 1: 1-0-0
Sir John Hawkwood Soft: 5: 2-1-0 Heavy: 4: 0-2-0
Almandin Soft: 5: 1-2-1
Grey Lion Soft: 4: 2-0-0 Heavy: 3: 0-1-1
Secret Number Soft: 6: 3-1-0
Qewy Soft: 11: 2-2-2 Heavy: 3: 1-1-1

Big Orange, 5th in last years cup, form back home since top notch
Qewy, Geelong Cup winner who has also done well over the jumps. Should relish the light weight
Gallante, Sydney Cup winner, races on the pace so should avoid any trouble. Bit of rain would help
Secret Number, lightly raced recent times due to injury. Previous visit finished 2nd Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2,500m) racing on the pace. Some doubt over more distance

Interesting stats courtesy racenet:

The trainer: Lee Freedman (5 wins) (Note: He now trains in partnership with his brother Anthony) - Our Ivanhowe (No. 2) and Exospheric (No. 5)

The jockey: Damien Oliver (3 wins) – Exospheric (No. 5) and Glen Boss (3 wins) – Grey Lion (No. 19)

The owner: Lloyd Williams (4 wins) – Bondi Beach (No. 4), Gallante (No. 10), Almandin (No. 17) and Assign (No. 18)

The saddlecloth: 4 and 12 (11 wins) – Bondi Beach (No. 4), Jameka (No. 12)

The barrier: 11 (8 wins) – Oceanographer (No. 20)

The age and sex: 5YO E&G (41 wins) – Bondi Beach (No. 4), Exospheric (No. 5), Grey Lion (No. 19), Oceanographer (No. 20), Pentathlon (No. 22)

Three lead-up form races to the Melbourne Cup have produced 11 winners since 2000. These are the horses that come out of those races:

Caulfield Cup (4 winners) – Our Ivanhowe (No. 2), Exospheric (No. 5), Almoonqith (No. 9), Jameka (No. 12), Sir John Hawkwood (No. 14)
Cox Plate (4 winners) – Hartnell (No. 6)
Geelong Cup (3 winners) – Grey Lion (No. 19), Oceanographer (No. 20), Qewy (No. 23)

Unluckiest saddlecloth: 18 (1 win) – Assign (No. 18)

Unluckiest barrier: 18 (no winners) – Curren Mirotic (No. 3)

__________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper

Owner Bob Peters & trainer Darren Weir both disappointed with the run of Real Love.
She may start in Saturdays Matriarch Stakes, stepping down in distance.

__________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper

For what it's worth, here's my tips:


2016 Melbourne Cup
================

1. Big Orange - $12
Better horse this year than last. This edition should see more pace, which will be an advantage. Will be in the leading bunch and the draw indicates it should find that position with relative ease. In winning form and of dominanting size, though will have to break the 'no lead-up race in Australia prior to the Cup' hoodoo.

2. Heartbreak City - $18
Barrier draw is a worry, though the jockey booking is fantastic and had a spectacular last race in the UK. No worries at the distance. If it can find a good spot midfield in running and gets the breaks coming into the straight, should do very well.

3. Almandin - $11
Rise in class and distance. Has been dodging races since The Bart Cummings to maintain its light weight. Pedigree says it should get the 3200m; two of the last three winners came from its sire (also beat Protectionist in Germany in 2014, prior to it coming and out winning the Cup).

4. Secret Number - $26
Only run in Australia, but has a great first up record and from a stable that has huge experience in preparing foreign raiders. Query over the distance, but pedigree indicates it should do well.

5. Hartnell - $6
In stupendous form this season though has failed badly in two attempts at 3200m in Australia. Beat Jameka over 2000m comprehensively two runs ago and now meets her better at the weights.

6. Jameka - $8.50
Makybe Diva is the only mare to have carried more and won, though Jameka's earned it following Caulfield Cup win. Great draw, likely to find the sit it needs. Running in spite of its pedigree which indicates it's looking for a sit-and-sprint. Never run this far or this far into its prep.

7. Exospheric - $21
Great run in the Caulfield Cup. Very early in his career and first attempt at the distance, but pedigree says it should do well.

8. Gallante - $51
Would've preferred more give in the track. Has run the distance, winning the Sydney Cup in April. Good draw and on-pace. Touched up by Jameka in the Naturalism Stakes, but put a gap on the rest of the field and meets her now 3kg better at the weights. Last run was poor, but a forgive.

9. Bondi Beach - $9.50
Last year was a Melbourne Cup reconnaisance mission (finishing 6L back after getting caught in a demolition derby), more of a chance this time around.

10. Qewy - $26
Beat Oceanographer in the Geelong Cup, is better here at the weights, doesn't rely on sprinting around or running through the field to the finish, hardy type having run in hurdles and chases (which is a background that has performed well in the cup of late). Yet it's at $26 and Oceanographer is at $9...

Grand Marshall, well beaten last years cup, 3rd Sydney & Sandown cups since. Most recent won MV Cup (2500m)
Curren Mirotic, 2nd Tenno Sho Spring 3200m, looking to become the oldest winner of the Cup.
Who Shot Thebarman, beaten 4lens last years cup, since 4th Sydney Cup, 2nd MV Cup
Gallante, won the Sydney Cup, races on the pace so should avoid any trouble

Grey Lion, 2nd Geelong Cup, only start over similar distance (3000m) ran last
Our Ivanhowe, beaten 3.9lens last years cup, since won Doomben Cup & 6th Caulfield Cup
Beautiful Romance, lightly raced Godolphin stable but gone no further than 2414m
Assign, good form over 2400m or less, races on the pace so should avoid any trouble

Excess Knowledge, beaten 3.1lens last years cup, form moderate since
Sir John Hawkwood, good form over 2400m or less
Rose of Virginia, 2nd Auckland Cup (3200m), recent form below par
Pentathlon, mixed form recently but has 3 starts over the distance, finishing 1st, 2nd & 4th