Here's the latest Order of Entry: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...236d869bf3.ashx

And here are the nominees that are running across the weekend:

Friday
ENTENTE	YTPFBC	Port Macquarie - Race 7 - 5:10PM 2020 CARLTON DRAUGHT PORT MACQUARIE CUP (2000 METRES)
Saturday
CHAPADA	58	Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)	49	Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
IN GOOD HEALTH	YTPFBC	Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
MIAMI BOUND (NZ)	25	Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
ORDEROFTHEGARTER (IRE)	YTPFBC	Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ)	37	Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)	31	Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)	27	Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
ZEBROWSKI (NZ)	32	Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
LEVENDI	YTPFBC	Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:10PM Neds Stakes (2000 METRES)
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)	8	Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:10PM Neds Stakes (2000 METRES)
ZACADA (NZ)	YTPFBC	Royal Randwick - Race 4 - 2:55PM TRESEMME HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
Sunday
FUTURE SCORE (IRE)	YTPFBC	Cranbourne - Race 8 - 4:50PM TAB Cranbourne Cup (2025 METRES)
MIDTERM (GB)	60=	Cranbourne - Race 8 - 4:50PM TAB Cranbourne Cup (2025 METRES)

Could be the last shot for some of these: second declarations are due on Tuesday.

Last few days of results from nominees:

Friday
ENTENTE	YTPFBC	1st of 10	P MQ	2000m Good3 PMAC CUP $203,500	@ $1.5
Saturday
CHAPADA	45	1st of 9	CAUL	2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000	@ $4.6
ZEBROWSKI (NZ)	32	2nd of 9	CAUL	2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000	@ $9
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ)	37	3rd of 9	CAUL	2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000	@ $31
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)	50	4th of 9	CAUL	2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000	@ $13
IN GOOD HEALTH	YTPFBC	5th of 9	CAUL	2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000	@ $7.5
MIAMI BOUND (NZ)	25	6th of 9	CAUL	2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000	@ $21
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)	27	7th of 9	CAUL	2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000	@ $11
ORDEROFTHEGARTER (IRE)	YTPFBC	9th of 9	CAUL	2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000	@ $2.6
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)	8	2nd of 6	CAUL	2000m Good4 CAULFIELD STKS Group 1 $1,002,750	@ $1.4
LEVENDI	YTPFBC	6th of 6	CAUL	2000m Good4 CAULFIELD STKS Group 1 $1,002,750	@ $41
Sunday
FUTURE SCORE (IRE)	YTPFBC	1st of 15	CRAN	2025m Good3 CRAN CUP Listed $400,000	@ $15
MIDTERM (GB)	60=	12th of 15	CRAN	2025m Good3 CRAN CUP Listed $400,000	@ $21

Second declarations are due noon Tuesday, 13th October.

Second acceptances announced this afternoon: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...2nd-acceptances

The 29 contenders who have dropped out of the running are:
ALMANIA (IRE)
AMERICAN WHISKEY (USA)
ANGEL OF TRUTH
ATTENTION RUN (GER)
BARADE (FR)
CREEDENCE
DADOOZDART (GB)
DANCETERIA (FR)
DJUKON (GB)
FEEL THE RUSH (NZ)
GAME KEEPER
GOOD IDEA
HIGH EMOCEAN (NZ)
IN GOOD HEALTH
INVOLVED (GB)
JUST THINKIN'
KINANE (NZ)
NORWAY (IRE)
ORDEROFTHEGARTER (IRE)
PORT GUILLAUME (FR)
RONDINELLA (NZ)
ROYAL CROWN
SIR CHARLES ROAD
SOUTH PACIFIC (GB)
SUPER GIRL
SWEET THOMAS (GER)
YOUNG RASCAL (FR)
ZACADA (NZ)
ZAMOSA (NZ)


Here is the order of entry of the remainders: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...-at-oct-13-2020

Third acceptances close Monday, 26th October at 12pm.


A few of the nominees are racing at Caulfield tomorrow:

Wednesday
AL GALAYEL (IRE)	YTPFBC	Caulfield - Race 2 - 2:00PM Neds Coongy Cup (2000 METRES)
DJANGO FREEMAN (GER)	47	Caulfield - Race 2 - 2:00PM Neds Coongy Cup (2000 METRES)
GRAND PROMENADE (GB)	YTPFBC	Caulfield - Race 3 - 2:35PM BECK Probuild Handicap (2000 METRES)
CADRE DU NOIR (USA)	YTPFBC	Caulfield - Race 5 - 3:45PM Hyland Race Colours Handicap (2407 METRES)
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE)	YTPFBC	Caulfield - Race 5 - 3:45PM Hyland Race Colours Handicap (2407 METRES)

walkermac, based on the usual stats around weight, females, age plus removing 1 or 2 horses i don't really like or think are underpriced I can only see that there are a few left over who are under current odds of about $41 and are very likely to get a start unless they pull out.

These would be:
Santiago
Tiger Moth
Warning
Toffee Tongue

I'm not a fan of russian camelot (think hes overhyped and thus odds are too low), also not a big fan of returning runners being a year older and up in weight winning it 2nd time around (although often can place). Therefore the list above seems like a bit of an early shortlist to me but was wondering what your or others thoughts were? Unfortunately the two I had some all-in futures multi's on are both now out (Nancho and Port Guillaume).

Honestly, I've spent no time looking at the race beyond what was necessary to collate these posts. Bit of a letdown from previous years, but I've been caught up with other stuff unfortunately. Last year's race sucking so hard hasn't helped my enthusiasm either!


Results from nominees the past couple of days:

Wednesday
GRAND PROMENADE (GB)	YTPFBC	4th of 9	CAUL	2000m Good4 BM78 $135,000	@ $2.80
DJANGO FREEMAN (GER)	47	5th of 8	CAUL	2000m Good4 COONGY Group 3 $200,750	@ $4.20
AL GALAYEL (IRE)	YTPFBC	6th of 8	CAUL	2000m Good4 COONGY Group 3 $200,750	@ $4
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE)	YTPFBC	6th of 12	CAUL	2407m Good4 BM84 $135,000	@ $2.05
CADRE DU NOIR (USA)	YTPFBC	12th of 12	CAUL	2407m Good4 BM84 $135,000	@ $4
Friday
MIDTERM (GB)	52	8th of 9	MOE	2050m Soft7 Moe Cup $130,000	@ $8.50

I think we can safely forget those....


Nominees racing this weekend:

Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)
OCEANEX (NZ)	1=	$201.00
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE)	3	$7.00
VOW AND DECLARE	4	$34.00
AVILIUS (GB)	5	$31.00
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)	6	$5.00
MUSTAJEER (GB)	13	$101.00
MIRAGE DANCER (GB)	14	$21.00
BUCKHURST (IRE)	16	$11.00
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)	17	$18.00
WARNING	18	$21.00
DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB)	20	$31.00
FINCHE (GB)	21	$12.00
TOFFEE TONGUE (NZ)	24	$16.00
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)	25	$101.00
TRUE SELF (IRE)	27	$35.00
RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)	29	$201.00
SAN HUBERTO (IRE)	31	$91.00
MASTER OF WINE (GER)	33	$7.50
LE DON DE VIE (GB)	39	$67.00
CHAPADA	42	$21.00
Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:30PM BENTLEY ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)
AZURO (FR)	41	$26.00
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)	44	$4.20
PATHS OF GLORY (GB)	51	$3.60
ATTORNEY (FR)	52=	$5.50

Its good to see all this leading up to the race but I'll just be going back to the table that marks all the negatives and go with horses with the least negatives.

I assume you will be putting that table together again after next weekends races ?

ie http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...3&postcount=123

Check it out:

Horse	Order	Total	Less than 8yo	Wgt < 57kg	Not a mare	<= $21 SP	< $16 in last	Wgtd < than in last	FS in last >= 10	Won Black Type	<=3L in last	<6 victories
TIGER MOTH (IRE)	10	11	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)	7	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)	18	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
FINCHE (GB)	20	10	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1
ASHRUN (FR)	34	10	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
HUSH WRITER (JPN)	36	10	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
ATTORNEY (FR)	51=	10	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
ENTENTE	58=	10	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
PERSAN	1=	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)	8	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1
MUGATOO (IRE)	27	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
SAN HUBERTO (IRE)	30	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1
NICKAJACK CAVE (IRE)	31	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1
STEEL PRINCE (IRE)	35	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
LE DON DE VIE (GB)	38	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)	43	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
PONDUS (GB)	48	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1
SCHABAU (GER)	49	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
SHARED AMBITION (IRE)	57	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE)	60=	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)	6	8	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	0
SIR DRAGONET (IRE)	11	8	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1
BUCKHURST (IRE)	15	8	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
ZEBROWSKI (NZ)	29	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	1
MASTER OF WINE (GER)	32	8	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ)	33	8	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1
SKYWARD (FR)	37	8	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1
SOUND (GER)	39	8	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
DJANGO FREEMAN (GER)	46	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	1
PATHS OF GLORY (GB)	50	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
SELINO (GB)	54	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	1
ADMIRE ROBSON (JPN)	60=	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1
CADRE DU NOIR (USA)	60=	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1
FUTURE SCORE (IRE)	60=	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE)	3	7	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)	9	7	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)	24	7	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)	25	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
AZURO (FR)	40	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
CHAPADA	41	7	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
CARIF	42	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)	45	7	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0
AKTAU (GB)	47	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
COLLIDE (GB)	53	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
LEVENDI	55	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1
AL GALAYEL (IRE)	56	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0
MIDTERM (GB)	51=	7	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	1
LORD BELVEDERE (GB)	58=	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
GRAND PROMENADE (GB)	60=	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	1
OCEANEX (NZ)	1=	6	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
AVILIUS (GB)	5	6	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0
MIRAGE DANCER (GB)	13	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
STRATUM ALBION (GB)	14	6	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)	16	6	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0
WARNING	17	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB)	19	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
MIAMI BOUND (NZ)	22	6	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1
RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)	28	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
HAKY (IRE)	44	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1
VOW AND DECLARE	4	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
MUSTAJEER (GB)	12	5	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
TOFFEE TONGUE (NZ)	23	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
ETAH JAMES (NZ)	21	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
TRUE SELF (IRE)	26	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0

I might have missed a black type race if it happened in Germany (R&S skips them).

Saturday results:

2400m Soft6 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)	6	1st of 18	0L	@ $5
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE)	3	2nd of 18	0.2L	@ $6
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)	24	3rd of 18	0.95L	@ $61
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)	16	4th of 18	1.95L	@ $17
FINCHE (GB)	20	5th of 18	2.45L	@ $9
AVILIUS (GB)	5	6th of 18	2.65L	@ $31
BUCKHURST (IRE)	15	7th of 18	3.4L	@ $11
MUSTAJEER (GB)	12	8th of 18	3.9L	@ $101
CHAPADA	41	9th of 18	4.2L	@ $21
MASTER OF WINE (GER)	32	10th of 18	4.6L	@ $7
WARNING	17	12th of 18	5.2L	@ $21
TRUE SELF (IRE)	26	13th of 18	5.95L	@ $31
TOFFEE TONGUE (NZ)	23	14th of 18	6.45L	@ $18
VOW AND DECLARE	4	15th of 18	8.7L	@ $41
RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)	28	16th of 18	15.7L	@ $201
MIRAGE DANCER (GB)	13	17th of 18	17.2L	@ $31
DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB)	19	18th of 18	27.2L	@ $31
2600m Good4 ST LEGER $501,500
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)	43	2nd of 10	1L	@ $4.4
ATTORNEY (FR)	51=	4th of 10	1.3L	@ $5.5
PATHS OF GLORY (GB)	50	5th of 10	5.5L	@ $3.3
AZURO (FR)	40	6th of 10	6.1L	@ $81

Looking at that list who are in the top 24 we can contain our bets down to these horses:

TIGER MOTH (IRE)
RUSSIAN CAMELOT(IRE)
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
FINCHE (GB)
PERSAN
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
SIR DRAGONET (IRE)
BUCKHURST (IRE)

9 horses only which is not a bad list.

I would look to reduce these down further to

TIGER MOTH (IRE)
RUSSIAN CAMELOT(IRE)
PERSAN
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
SIR DRAGONET (IRE)

We can eliminate these horses:

SURPRISE BABY (NZ) -- TOO FAR BACK -- UNPLACED IN 2019
BUCKHURST (IRE) -- ODDS ARE TOO LONG
FINCHE (GB) -- UNPLACED IN 2019 / 2018

Verry Elleegant has slipped down a further rung on the ladder with a 0.5kg penalty earned from her Caulfield Cup victory (meaning she loses a point in "the system").

Russian Camelot could lose some points also, depending how he goes in the Cox Plate this weekend (NB - he will gain a point due to the field size)


I'm not going to rule out any runners based on their performance in last year's "race". I'm cautious even about them being too far back. Il Paradiso came from 21st position at the 800m last year and may well have nabbed Vow And Declare on the line had Master Of Reality not squeezed him out. Cross Counter won from 22nd position at the 800m the year prior (and Marmelo's 2nd in that race, under a decent weight of 56kg, was also launched from 20th).

Persan must be a candidate for ruling out. His rating seems way too low. He's had 19 starts as well, so it's not like the handicappers haven't had a good look at him.