Thought Mercerdario had every chance and was well beaten. What did I miss?

tally after 3 weeks:
12 bets
5 wins
returns= 16.8 units
POT 40%

a couple of very unlucky 2nd's as well.

osulldj, were you on Changing Lanes?

Umrum, what happened to Dead Eye Dick? have you heard any excuses?

Looking at the stewards report, no excuses for Dead Eye Dick, partypooper. Dream rails run last start, but not this time around.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-22 17:15 ]

Chopping block tips for sat:

PR2-1 Covertly

PR3-3 Lionheart

PR8-2 Constantinople


Sandgroper, Re: Dead Eye Dick, yes I agree about the previous rails run, but still I think it was a tad unlucky last week, I like the look of him again today, but just can't split it and Krapats so have decided to skip the race.

Hi Partypooper,

Just had a look at the market prices. In the consensus that Educated Money can't run 1200m? At $7 fixed odds and better on the tote I would be happy to put it ahead of Lion Heart.

It showed a nice sprint last start and that might be the go again today. I'll now view the race with interest.

Most of us have formulated a means of selecting our fancies, whether it be by hunches or a complicated computerised selection system.

The end result is that we have selections to bet on that we have spent "minutes or hours" doing the hard yards.

The hard part is turning a constant profit on those selections.

It has taken me years and a lot of losses to realise that each bet must be made from a fixed bank and must be made to make a fixed minimum profit on that bet.

By not having a bank you cannot control your losses.

By not taking a fixed minimum profit one can accept too short of odds for the risk of the bet.

__________________
RACES ARE LIKE BUSES, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ALONG IN A MINUTE

Hate to say it, but Target betting is just another form of chasing losses. Think about it.

Cheers.

On 2003-12-27 19:12, GeneralGym wrote:
By not taking a fixed minimum profit one can accept too short of odds for the risk of the bet.

Hello GG,

short odds are short odds regardless of whether you're betting a fixed amount or betting to make a fixed profit. In fact, if you're betting a set takeout or profit, then short odds are even less value, as you'll be risking far more than you should.

Cheers,
Chris.

Hi Chris,
For the first time in my life I am betting short odds, and I have never been as CONSTANTLY succesfull in my life.

I've always chased the big scores but the good days were always brought back to earth by the bad ones and I hated the mental strain of the bad ones.

As you are probabilly aware I am doing this full time. If I don't win the mortgage don't get paid and the kids don't get fead.

I have been working out a place system for quite a while now and put it into practise 11 days ago.

At this stage 11 winning days.

I'm betting $200 to take out $400 to $500 a day. When I get that I stop. Usually maximum 6 bets. Today 3bets 1.9 1.7 1.7 .

My point though even if my bet was $500 to take out $400 for the day what's the difference as long as it is a winning day.

The P O T is reduced but the profit is still there.


Cheers

Kenchar

"Hate to say it, but Target betting is just another form of chasing losses. Think about it."

I'm not target betting, I don't accept odds less that an acceptable amount as I beleive that all bets are placed with the same risk whether thay are on the odds on favourate or a longer shot.

Its all about your strike rate, If its one winning collect in in five then you need to accept longer odds to turn a profit, a better strike rate then less odds are acceptable, as for win bets at odds on.......not for me I'm afraid

The idea of the fixed bank to work from is to control the betting amounts and by doing this there is always enough for the next bet.
Its a matter of what $$$ value units one is comfortable of betting in and whether you are doing it as a hobby or serious.

Me I'm a hobby person who enjoys betting for a profit

__________________
RACES ARE LIKE BUSES, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ALONG IN A MINUTE