Well done Ray, as I've said before, appreciate your ongoing input.

Thanks jimmyz for the kind words. See you next season!

Ray Stefani

Hi everyone,

It’s time to get started with a new Super Rugby season. Last season was my 17th season of Super Rugby. I picked the head-to-head winner in 72% of the matches. Only two past seasons were better. There was at least one surprise. Now that there are 18 teams with a new 15 match season, the domestic home advantage (among same-country teams) almost disappeared last season. I think the explanation is that when a team comes home after an extended trip to another country, they are rewarded with a home match, which is sometimes against a team from the same nation that had been in-country the preceding week. That means the home team may be the one with travel fatigue. Over a season, that scheduling quirk has affected the domestic home matches. I changed my various parameters based on what I learned from the new Super 18 format.

Be fairly conservative while betting for the first three or four weeks. I start where we left off last season. Some teams may have changed. Also, there are new international matchups compared to last season. The ratings will soon sort themselves out.

Good luck with Week 1!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 1.doc (49.5 KB, 605 views)

Nice tips Ray. ..will deff follow your guide a little closer this season..was a great help last yr

Good to see you're back Ray

Good tips again, Ray. I'm looking forward to things settling down after Week 4.

We had a good first week for head-to-head matches because 8 of my 9 favourites won. The only loser was when the Sharks could not hold their lead and lost by 2.

Week 2 has two of the most unique predictions ever. I have an equation to keep the rating adjustment from getting too big when something odd happens. Still, the perfect storm happened because the greatest adjustment happens in week 1 compounded by the Hurricanes having the maximum possible rating increase after winning 82-17 while the Rebels had the maximum possible rating drop when they lost 18-56. In week 2 they play each other. I have never seen a 55 point predicted score difference before. It’s a statistical quirk, which is why I advise being careful when betting for the first 4 weeks.

At the other extreme, the Blues are only hundredths of a point better than the Chiefs so the game is as even as it could be. There is nothing boring about Super rugby.

God luck with crazy week 2.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 2.doc (50.0 KB, 515 views)

I thought I was being outrageous last week when I predicted that the Hurricanes would beat the Rebels 61-6, by 55 points. That turned out to have been a pretty good call because the Hurricanes won 71-6.

So far, my favourites have won 78% of the matches. I called three upsets so far.

We’ve seen team scores of 56, 71 and 83 points so far. Will that continue? We’ll see!

Good luck with week 3.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 3.doc (50.5 KB, 480 views)

My higher rated teams have won 77% of the matches so far. There have been some huge rating differences with huge predicted score differences that are settling out nicely. As I always caution, bet carefully through week 4 (this weekend). Ratings should have settled out by the end of this weekend.

Cheers,

Ray

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 4.doc (50.5 KB, 473 views)

Thanx for your thoughts on the first 3 rounds ..Have been very insightful