..both based in staunch afl states

For week 8, I couldn’t find any head-to-head value bets again. The payoffs for the favourites have been are too small to bother with and the underdogs weren’t likely enough to win to risk money on them. I did find 11 starting-points-difference bets that looked good starting with week 5. 7 of the 11 cashed. The new alignment continues to produce a lot of one-sided games. My favourites have won 79% of the games so far. That’s my highest ever through week 8.

It was interesting that the talk last week was about SANZAR moving the Sunwolves to the Australian Conference next year as part of going back to 15 teams. I missed the part where Japan became the 8th state. So, either the Western Force or the Rebels are to go. The Rebels responded by upsetting the Brumbies. The pathetic Sunwolves responded by losing 50-3. New Zealand bookmakers have cut off taking bets on the Highlanders to beat the Sunwolves.

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 9.doc (50.5 KB, 412 views)

Thanks for this great work Ray. Been going well on the betting front using this information.

As a matter of interest, do you do something similar for the UK premiership soccer league (EPL)?

Those point difference bets continue to be a good idea. Three of five point-start-difference value bets cashed last week, bringing the total to 11 of 17 since week 5, a 21% profit on turnover. My favorite team won 6 and tied 1 out of 8 matches, bringing season accuracy to 80%, a new high for this date.

The next matches are in two weeks.

Fatcat asked about my EPL predictions. I worked with EPL predictions for a number of years. For soccer, I gave fair odds for a win, draw and loss. There was a special form of betting called draw-no-loss that I evaluated too. If you guys are interested, I could think about restarting my EPL picks for next season.

Good luck when week 10 rolls around.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 10.doc (50.5 KB, 373 views)

I'd really appreciate you doing this Ray for next season. Would like to give it a crack

Cheers

Ray - using your attached Week 10 doc predictions....can I ask you to update this section " Example Using the Betting Rules"in the attachment as I'd like to make sure my Excel template I've created is correct please.

Also - assuming that Rb in your word document would be using Sportsbet odds or UBet odds as the "factor"?

Last week we picked two upsets, thanks to the Waratahs and the Southern Kings.

For week 11, only one match is predicted to be under a 10-point margin. The bookmakers are having to post some seriously high odds on the underdogs to get any action.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

I forgot to upload the predictions in my last send.

Last week we picked two upsets, thanks to the Waratahs and the Southern Kings.

For week 11, only one match is predicted to be under a 10-point margin. The bookmakers are having to post some seriously high odds on the underdogs to get any action.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 11.doc (50.5 KB, 388 views)

Oops, I made an error in writing that there was a two-week gap.

I use the symbol R to mean the decimal odds. Rb means the bookie's decimal odds, like for SportsBet. Rf means my fair odds.

I can check your Excel spread sheet. Just email me at Raystefani@aol.com and attach it with an explanation.