I'd definitely be in Ray

Hi Ray

Will you be using this channel for your EPL predictions or another one. If so can you send me a link to it please

Thanks

ditto Ray

The Australian Rugby Union have decided to discontinue the Western Force's licence

I will use this channel for sure. I was gone for over a month and am catching up with a lot of oblations. I have to relocate my soccer computer software and run at least one past year of EPL matches to update my parameters. Then I can make the predictions you all deserve for the current season. It may take me a couple of months to get up to speed.

Until then, a hearty cheers!

Ray Stefani

good one Ray

Thanks heaps Ray

Hi to all,

As I promised, I located my soccer predictions program and updated it. I coded and ran last season’s 380 EPL matches to create the EPL starting ratings for this season. I give promoted teams the average ratings of the relegated teams, to start the new season. I just finished and now have predictions for EPL week 4.

As I do for rugby, for each team, I calculate an offensive rating, a defensive rating and the team’s constancy. I also calculate the home advantage in points. For soccer, I calculate three probabilities: for a home win, draw and away win (home loss). By the end of the season, my average probabilities are within 1% of the actual fraction of home wins, draws and away wins. I calculate the fair decimal odds for all three possibilities. As with rugby, whenever bookmaker decimal odds are higher than my fair odds, you have an edge. I include a page to explain my soccer predictions. I’ll also post this in the soccer section. In the future, I will post new predictions a day or two after the last game is played. These are late since I just finished.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 4 pred.doc (29.5 KB, 551 views)

Hi guys. I thought I would post my EPL predictions here again.

For about the first four weeks, ratings bounce around quite a bit. That’s due to the newly promoted teams, new players, new coaches and new strategies, plus some unusual early-season scores and upsets. By the end of week four, most ratings have settled. An interesting case was that of West Ham versus Huddersfield in week four. West Ham had lost all of its first three matches while newly-promoted Huddersfield had been surprisingly unbeaten (two wins and a draw). Huddersfield was underdog with a high price, despite the odd start for both teams. Trading had to be suspended by TAB New Zealand on Huddersfield. When West Ham won 2-0 in week four, both teams’ ratings moved to a more centrist position.

Good luck with week 5,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 5 pred.doc (33.0 KB, 513 views)

I wish the EPL teams would tell us when all the teams except Man U and Man City want to take the week off and play for draws. My favorites won four of the five non-drawn matches. On the other hand, Chelsea, Liverpool and West Brom were heavy favorites but they settled for three 0-0 draws. There were also two 1-1 draws. Five draws is twice as many as usual. Excluding the two Manchester matches, only 11 goals were scored in eight matches. Let’s hope they all come to play in Week 6, so trying to predict winners and looking at odds is worth it. Meanwhile, Man U and Man City are tied at the top in every way possible.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 6 pred.doc (33.0 KB, 514 views)